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Long sunny days of a carefree childhood are brought to mind with thoughts of The Magic Roundabout with characters I’m sure people here will recall the organ playing Mr Rusty,boing … Zebedee,Florence,Dougal and my favourite the hippy rabbit Dylan but the one everyone seems to remember is BRIAN THE SNAIL who runs this evening at Haydock.Perhaps appropriately sired by Zebedee (suggestions open as to the dam?) he’s now well into the veteran stage but still doesn’t lack the zest or ability,now somewhat less than previous years,to win.Although it has been quite a time between drinks of success he won rather easily last time and I’m betting the small penalty won’t be enough to stop him following up.
good luck to allUnbeaten as a juvenile the wheels came off big time for this former inmate of Ballydoyle as a 3yo but following wind surgery and gelding he was picked up for 50,000 guineas at the Tatts autumn horses in training by present connections.Three runs on the a/w at the start of the year showed the ability was still there but needed to be coaxed out.Off the track for almost two months he reappeared at Pontefract in a race that I believe can be discarded due to him stumbling 2f out and pulling up sore.However a completely transformed horse was seen at Windsor toward the end of May under top weight came from the rear,even being hit on the nose by a rival’s whip didn’t stop him,winning stylishly on his first encounter with fast ground.The form has been endorsed in no uncertain fashion by the third winning the Epsom ‘dash’ less than a week later.Hoping connections have now found the key to unlocking the latent ability I’m expecting KING OF BAVARIA to make up for lost time.
good luck to allThe rain that’s fallen at Ascot will no doubt complicate matters but like the Cavern Meeting in the spring this is another significant point in the season when for one reason or another horses that hadn’t been able to show their best start to shine and a general reassessment of previous form needs to be undertaken and perhaps even junked in favour of the latest revelations.Given the fact that many stables livelihoods can depend on the valuable handicaps at these big summer meetings trainers & connections with specific targets plotted months ago will either come to fruition or crash and burn.However knowing that horses have likely been brought to their peak,or something damn close to it,means that if the plot doesn’t succeed compensation will be looked for to fill the coffers.Thus following such horses in the aftermath of this weeks meeting can be very profitable although as I’ve found the bookies don’t very often miss them either.
Taking a bit of a chance today and going with POKER FACE e/w in the penultimate contest this afternoon who I believe is one of those horses capable of much better but yet to display it.
good luck to allI’m looking at grading my bets collecting the information on bets placed and the criteria the investment is based on,however at present deciding which bits & pieces should take priority in the pecking order is proving rather awkward as the mixture involves a number of things but hoping it will all become clearer with more data pointing the right direction.
Today putting forward for your consideration a gelding that looks to me to have been harshly treated by the handicapper for the last couple of years but now given a chance to compete off a decent mark believe PEROTTO e/w is capable of getting back into the winners enclosure,or t least run into the extended places on offer from bookmakers.Having recently changed stables his first run for Roger Varian wasn’t great but bearing in mind the 7f trip would be on the sharp side plus the underfoot conditions too soft it’s hard to argue it wasn’t a fair effort on his part.
Perhaps in fairness of absolute disclosure I should point out that Astro King also came through the qualifying filters but he’s always,to me at least,promised a lot more than he’s delivered and simply looks overburdened running off recent marks in these very valuable handicaps.
good luck to allSince decisively winning his maiden,the form of which has worked out very well,SPARTAN ARROW hasn’t had any luck at all in the two handicaps he’s contested in fact the handicapper has actually raised him 1lb from last time out.However dropped into much calmer waters and also down in trip this looks an ideal opportunity to get back into the winners enclosure and give this colt the positive attitude he needs to boost him onto better things.
good luck to allToday going for what’s probably my favourite betting contest of the year although maybe it’s influenced from the time when I had just started out using my present methods and put forward Interception on the Thursday of Royal Ascot @ 25/1 believing a price contraction was coming,so imagine my surprise when on the Saturday morning 33/1 was available in places.However a flood of late money just before the off saw the mare start at a well supported 10/1 and she duly engaged the afterburners late on to power to a convincing success after which she never won again.The Haggas trained KHANJAR e/w has always been a horse capable of winning such a contest although to date he’s promised more than has been delivered.Brought along with this race in mind,I believe,he looks to be ready to take his form to a higher level under suitable conditions I’m hoping to at least hit the frame.
good luck to allThings have taken slightly longer than usual today as the gelding being put forward for your consideration has somewhat of a chequered history.His juvenile year consisted of a couple of outings at my local track over 7f which if nothing else showed a certain level of ability.His 3yo campaign was up and down to say the least but there were some good efforts during the season including winning a maiden at Southwell on a similar surface he will meet tonight.Following two relatively disappointing runs this year connections seemed finally to grasp that LIBERTUS e/w needed dropping to the minimum trip where he duly performed to a higher standard at Lingfield just failing to catch the winner leaving the other runners well behind.Providing the stumble from his last intended start has no lasting effects this gelding looks seriously overpriced to me and expecting to garner place money.
I also have a confession to make from last Sat as I became aware of a free bet on my Ladbroke account,after I had posted,that had to be used by the end of the day so used it on a somewhat speculative bet on Makarova up at Ayr with the bookie boosting my 10/1 to 11/1 (starting price 7/1) making it a satisfactory day and will probably be a while before I get offered another free bet.
good luck to allAlthough plenty of fixtures there isn’t much for myself to ‘get stuck into’ but think EQUATORIAL at Chester this afternoon looks to have more to offer following an effortless Salisbury win last time out registering numbers suggesting he’s up to taking this event.However it wasn’t that win which caught my eye but his previous race when runner up to Thunderball who in turn ran fourth behind Docklands in the Britannia at Ascot.
good luck to allVery rare to find me betting ante post but assessing the weekends race meetings couldn’t help but be bowled over by the Paddy Power/Betfair offer of 25/1 about MAKAROVA e/w for the Coral Charge that opens Sandown’s Saturday card.Regular readers will know her from a free bet Ladbrokes gave me late last month when to my regret I didn’t add her as a late addition to that day’s post.A single run very late in her juvenile year marked her racecourse debt which was neither here nor there as regard future prospects.This maiden was followed by two novice events,all over 7f,before being dropped in trip on handicap debut to 6f.A quick Salisbury double in lowly class 5 races saw a 14lb hike in the ratings and much stiffer opposition as rivals.The overall form of the rest of her 3yo campaign was good despite not winning again but displayed real class on her final outing against Azure Blue in the Listed Boadicea Stakes.Resuming this season at 6f sadly didn’t show the same sparkle until dropped in trip again on her penultimate run when running on well at the death in the Achilles Stakes at Haydock.Last time out showed this improved form was no flash in the pan when taking the Land O’Burn Fillies Stakes up at Ayr when mowing down her rivals to ruthless effect to win going away.Not only evident on the track the improvement showed in her numbers with her two runs over the minimum trip registering as her best career runs.Although this will be tougher she deserves to take her chance and believe it would be insulting not to take up the 25/1 price each way.
good luck to allSeems like a return to my not too distant past when a lot of my selections were at long odds.Following on from Makarova e/w on Thursday (25/1 >>>>> 12/1) running in today’s opener putting forward for your consideration a 8yo gelding who after lengthy absences is comparatively lightly raced to others in his age group.MAJOR PARTNERSHIP e/w has spent the majority of his career racing at Meydan against opposition much tougher than he encounters today with mixed results but as Godolphin have persisted even after a two year lay off between the summers of 2020/22 they must think there’s something to work with.Last time out at Nottingham the selection produced some of his top career numbers which to my mind means he’s no spent force and probably overpriced here.
good luck to allWith quite a few meetings on,as seems the norm on Saturdays now,and a lot of horses qualifying from the main filter it’s taken time to sift through and decide what I should put forward for your consideration.Not a problem I encounter often was with the John Smiths Cup which had a number of selections make it through all the filters and the thickness of a cigarette paper separating there chances.Midweek I liked the chances of Lethal Levi in the Bunbury Cup only to see him fall by the wayside this morning.which I must admit to being somewhat surprised by as the underfoot conditions changing in my opinion wouldn’t have inconvenienced the gelding.Finally I decided to put forward the lightly raced ROYAL DUBAI who recently,following a wind op,came into the care of his present handler.Previously raced in Dubai on dirt this colt made his UK debut on the a/w at Chelmsford when giving 12lb and beat a 80 rated opponent maybe with a bit more up his sleeve than the winning margin suggested.Following on from this the selection had his first turf run at Chester when just failing to overcome having to spin wide into the straight under top weight when a closing second.Back up in trip we have to trust the trainer as regard the ground being suitable although it would be remiss of me not to mention a worry over current stable form.However I believe the selection has potential and expect a good show.
good luck to allIt wouldn’t be unfair to say I’m edging my bets today by putting forward ROHAAN e/w in the Hackwood Stakes providing you can bet at odds which would give a positive return covering your stake.While I would prefer some rain it’s not at all certain it will reach the track in time,if at all?
However the selection being put forward for your consideration is more than capable of taking this contest but as with all hold up horses will need the gaps to appear at the right time and having that slice of luck often can make all the difference.Rohaan ran his best race of the campaign last time back in a handicap but to be perfectly honest in my opinion he’s like Don Quixote tilting at windmills in group 1 contests and much more at home at this level.
good luck to allI like that selection bck.
He was staying on nicely last time in his own race.
A lovely horse too.Thanks for the comment Sam just sorry the outcome wasn’t what we both desired.
Read your thread ‘Effect of non-runners in handicaps’ found it intriguing although it left me a little confused.Perhaps I need to go back and read it again.
There’s a lot of high profile racing today but I will be holding off until this evening when recent French import MONTAUK POINT makes her handicap debut at Windsor.This Kingman filly arrived with two late season juvenile runs behind her the second of which displayed real promise for the future.The Meade’s haven’t rushed her giving this filly time to settle which paid off in spades with a successful stable debut in a Salisbury novice event taken in convincing fashion.Althouugh her form isn’t easy to weigh up the recent win and the runner up spot from last year by no means make her look overburdened off her opening mark.She travelled well before readily putting the race to bed when last seen following quite a lengthy absence with every expectation of more to come this lightly racing filly looks likely to pay her way.The underfoot conditions nor I believe the drop in trip is of cause of any particular concern with the stable after a slow start doing better now I’m very hopeful of her making a winning handicap start.
good luck to allThe next few days at Goodwood I must admit to being ones I really like and although it seems we will be missing out on the weather it’s informal atmosphere and I believe better mix of racing makes it an overall more enjoyable experience than Ascot.Since my first blog on RaceCaller where I defined my methods (cira 2012/13) and had various degrees of success I don’t believe punters should ever stop striving for perfection.Although reaching such a level could also see the demise of betting as we know it in that the poor ole bookie wouldn’t have much of a chance.
‘THE GLORIOUS UNCERTAINLY’ in large capital letters is written above the following ….
It is popularly supposed that somewhere along the line between the stable door and the jockey is a mine of informatio,which if only one could tap it,would lead to untold wealth.Owners & trainers do occasionally have something ‘up their sleeve’- but even they have no answer to what has been called the “glorious uncertainty” of racing….Joe Lee (bookmaker) 1954.
As printed in Clive Holt’s first book in which he outlines his formula,later refined when new elements are added,to which I can credit to setting me on the road to understanding this so exciting,frustrating yet exhilarating sport we all follow.Clive Holt was a successful punter for many years and passed on his knowledge to any that care to shell out a very modest sum to purchase his two books detailing his methods & formula,the original in the first and with the added elements in the second.He was also responsible for the founding and running of Fineform which he used to sell his books and run the tipping services he provided.How many copies of his books survive is unknown but the number is likely to be limited as I believe he scaled back the printing in order to protect it’s effectiveness thus not having too many in circulation.Why am I rambling on like this is quite simply to bring to readers attention that even good methods need refreshing and updating as times change and to say that my way of selection may undergo such a updating subject to the research pointing to it being beneficial.
Getting rather late in the morning now so I shall just put forward for your consideration the two horses that I’ve invested in this morning giving them in chronological running order.First up will be LORD PROTECTOR e/w then in the final race on todays card KITAI.
good luck to allIn a bit of a hurry today so just put forward for your consideration a horse that thrives over this kind of trip the Richard Hughes trained CALLING THE WIND e/w.
good luck to all
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