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Must admit things are running at a slower pace than anticipated with handlers/connections being cautious with their horses,however have a interesting contender to put forward for your consideration at Haydock this afternoon.For a 6yo BIGGLES e/w is a very lightly raced individual only visiting a racecourse a dozen times.These races to date are evenly split six being turf and six on a synthetic surface gaining three wins on each.The selection made his debut as a juvenile in a Kempton novice event finishing mid division but probably doing better than his 33/1 sp suggested.This gelding was then off the track for 474 days and next seen as a 4yo making me think that connections obviously thought something of him to keep open the option for him to be returned to training.Although not showing anything special Biggles won two of his five races and connections saw some of their faith repaid with signs of latent ability.Took his career to a whole different level last season successful on four occasions from six starts showing a progressive profile and numbers in keeping with form now being displayed.Except when returning from his 400 day plus break the selection has run well returning after a absence and with the stable doing well at present looking for at least a place running off what will be his highest handicap mark to date.How his future will unfold I believe to depend on whether his stamina lasts beyond the 7f he’s raced over since Aug ’21 as more opportunities will open up if staying a mile.
good luck to allThought we had the race in the bag yesterday as Biggles came to challenge but just unable to get the better of two race fit rivals with already a race under there belt but I wouldn’t be writing him off as he shaped well and likely to come on for the run.I do love it when a bookie decides to temp fate and allocate me a free bet it seems almost rude not to relive them of some cash.In the last few years I’ve only ever been given two such opportunities and glad to say made them regret the decision by collecting a return on both.Wetherby being primary to my mind a NH course isn’t a place I bet at with any regularity however think there’s a fair chance TWELFTH KNIGHT e/w will be in the mix come the business end of the contest.A recent addition to the stable made his first run a successful one having been purchased by Carr in the Tatts autumn horses in training sale for 17,000 guineas after that win is looking like a pretty shrewd buy.
good luck to allAs well as the first classic of the year a real feast of good racing on show today giving many opportunities to look for where you think the bookie has erred.I believe there are a couple of such chances today both at racing headquarters in the handicaps,my preference,rather than graded contests which I now think there are far too many giving connections multiple ways to dodge others and serving up to the racing public a set of mundane uninteresting and uncompetitive in some cases contests which can’t be good for the future of the sport.First of my selections being put forward for your consideration is a recent Irish import purchased for 62,000 guineas at the Tatts horses in training sale last August by current owner John Marriot from Weld’s stable.Cruised to an effortless success on stable debt towards the end of March at my local track before being run out of a much better one over course and distance in April off the same mark as today by what looked a very well handicapped opponent.Although PROBE e/w has run and won over further in Ireland his two runs since coming over the water have been at today’s trip making this Kingman gelding look a smart sprint handicapper and will be very disappointed if he doesn’t get at least in the places.In the penultimate race on the card SHAQUILLE makes his handicap debut off what some may believe is quite a lofty mark.However given his only defeat to date was in what looked like a hot Acomb Stakes over a trip beyond his best in which he took a keen hold didn’t show him to good effect.Dropped by connections to 6f for his later juvenile races this colt showed progressive numbers and form saving the best until last.
As regular readers will know I’m always looking for ways via research to improve my offering to those of you kind enough to frequent this thread.This season by the end I’m hoping to implement a grading system for all bets put forward for your consideration based on the frequency and strength of the data/numbers behind each one.
good luck to allAlthough I don’t consider BERKSHIRE ROCCO e/w as strong as yesterday’s selections I put forward I still believe this gelding after being tried over 16f is capable of bouncing back at this 14f trip which I consider more appropriate.Apologies for this brief posting but time isn’t on my side today with jobs that need doing.
good luck to allWould have told all to ‘have the mortgage’ on Jer Batt on Wednesday if only he had been allocated a better stall even drawn about 5 I would have backed him with confidence so impressed was I with his previous run but the widest berth of all I considered too much of a handicap (if decent odds offered my money would have gone on e/w but future investing has to be put on hold until I believe the horse is capable of coping with the higher mark and tougher contests that lie ahead).Putting forward for your consideration today at the Roodee an Andrew Balding gelding that in my eyes is capable of better and has to date underachieved.A couple of decent efforts at the tail end of his juvenile year saw GROUNDBREAKER e/w go into winter quarters a maiden a tag which was quickly disposed of on 3yo debut.Although he hasn’t won since this gelding has put up some smart performances in Listed & valuable handicaps and believe the best of him is still to be seen.
good luck to allJust missed out on a return yesterday with Groundbreaker making up the deficit all the way to the line but the post arriving in time for the opposition.Putting forward for you today one of my lesser bets in Ascot’s final race on the card.Although COCO BEAR has a fair record of 5 wins from 21 races this doesn’t in my opinion give a true refection of the geldings chances.Removing contests other than 6f brings it to 5/15 then any race without soft in the going description cuts it to 5/9 if this is pared back to underfoot conditions similar to the going for this afternoon ,on soft/heavy ground,the selection is 3/4 with the only defeat coming over 7f a trip beyond his best.Stable & jockey currently doing well adds to the hope that the gelding will complete the hat-trick.
good luck to allLooking ahead yesterday,after doing laundry,was aggrieved to watch a potential bet win without any interest but being satisfied that the bandwagon was still rolling going into this weeks Dante meeting at York.However can put up for your consideration a Roger Varian filly by Harry Angel making her seasonal and handicap debut at Windsor this evening.Not seen out until Sept wasn’t a great surprise due to her late foaling but the ability she showed as a juvenile did.Held up in rear AZURE ANGEL wasn’t put into the race with any chance of winning on racecourse debut but ran on nicely from the back to claim a comfortable third for a very promising start.Just over two months later she reappeared at Newcastle in a fillies novice event over a longer 7f when probably just scrambling home by a head with the two clear of the remainder after being ridden much more prominently on this occasion.Making her final appearance the following month in another novice event,this time Kempton and back down to 6f,was always well positioned just off the speed made short work of the opposition giving weight all round.What made this a standout performance,although hand timed,were the numbers which would mark her out as quite useful.Having run only once on turf is a concern as the underfoot conditions will be something new,however her sire & dam were both successful on soft ground with Harry Angel registering some of his best numbers in such conditions.
good luck to allI have a bit of a soft spot for this filly so if you prefer to give her a swerve today I quite understand as there’s more than a little heart in the selection than cold hard logic.However I do believe AZURE BLUE e/w has a lot more to offer than she’s so far displayed also think the handler has a particular talent for sprinters.This progressive filly has improved over the last year as her numbers show and now dips her hoof into the murky waters with the big boys.Have fingers crossed she can at least get a place for us as in my mind I can see her doing a Highfield Princess and blowing away all our expectations in the months to come!
good luck to allA rare venture outside the handicap realm yesterday and boy did Azure Blue blow away any doubts about where she’s heading although the contest was upsetting in seeing Creative Force having to be put down,a real talented sprinter who will be missed.
I’m not sure how many horses Sir Michael has under his charge nowadays but seems rare they don’t develop into something above average.The Kingman gelding ASSESSMENT for whatever reason lost his undercarriage late last summer and following almost a year away made a very promising handicap debut off a mark of 85 at Kempton a month ago winning without any real pressure being applied.Although the opposition was nothing special once Richard Kingscote set the gelding alight sending him to challenge between the 1f-2f poles the result never looked in doubt,taking up the running at the furlong pole.Being an April foal he’s been lightly campaigned with a single juvenile run behind the useful Manaafith and a couple of novice events as a 3yo with the overall form suggesting there’s still more to come.
good luck to allUnfortunate event yesterday with Assessment breaking free although I do seem to recall him having other near to hand engagements so it’s wait and see as to where he turns out.Back to the final day at York for a Richard Fahey gelding who seems to have a liking for this course.Putting forward for your consideration SPIRIT DANCER e/w who today looks to enjoy a good combination of factors that have featured in the gelding running well here on previous visits.The selections top three turf numbers are not only all over this course and distance but also the prevailing underfoot conditions which lead me to believe providing he’s ready to roll there’s excellent chances of a return.With stable and jockey doing ok there’s one little quirk that puzzles me,funnily the selection has never run at a Dante meeting before?
good luck to allWith Epsom and Ascot now on the horizon the turf season is revving into top gear and as you may have noticed the number of horses being put forward for your consideration has gone up too.Today we go to Newbury looking to continue our pursuit for profitable bets with OUTBREAK e/w tasked with the job.Although there have been blips in the geldings career overall he’s quite consistent and dare anyone to pick holes in the success achieved at the Guineas meeting such was his authority.Registering career high numbers the selection cantered all over his rivals winning as he liked allowing the second to close the winning margin but the two well clear of the rest.This is tougher but I suspect there’s more to come and hoping for another good run.
good luck to allStill in shock over the mind numbing banal statement from racing authorities over the future fixture list and just wondering when they will finally grasp the idea there’s too much racing and protectionism isn’t the answer.
Apologies for having no write up today but believe DREAM COMPOSER is worth an interest this afternoon.
good luck to allCan’t see Mr Costello including yesterdays ride as one of his best,all wrapped up and nowhere to go,I think would be a fair way to describe what happened.However we move on and despite plenty of racing there doesn’t seem many opportunities,well for myself,of a bet today but combing through the cards came upon handicap debutant FAIR WIND who after couple of decent efforts was gifted a gilt edged chance at my local track.The selection being put forward for your consideration had three runs during April with the overall form stacking up well given a late April foaling date and the gelding being barely a 3yo.A promising appearance at Nottingham when 3rd winner being successful twice since with the 2nd beating the selection again next time out but by a very reduced margin and then going on to win again.While he may stay further in time this trip looks ideal for him at present owing to his tendency to be keen in his races which once brought under control will see him improve.
good luck to allPutting forward for your consideration a colt connections must believe has more ability than so far displayed and to judge from his last run seems a pretty shrewd assessment of MARHABA THE CHAMP when making his seasonal bow following wind surgery.Being a May foal the selection was never likely to cut much ice as a juvenile given his pedigree by Galileo but ran a decent race on his sole 2yo outing.Wasn’t seen again until the following June when more was probably expected in an Ayr maiden,a wind operation followed.Performed much better on return before once again disappointing on soft ground at Nottingham after which he was put away for the year.A second wind op occurred in March of this year before his York run on similar ground to today quite simply blew away all his previous form and easily being a personal best.Raised just 2lb for that success this lightly raced colt looks to have more to offer and I recommend him whole heartedly as a decent prospect for todays contest.
good luck to allI was puzzled by the trainers rep last Friday when he gave as the reason for Mahaba the Champ running below expectations as “the colt was unsuited by the first time application of a tongue tie” and just when you think you have heard all the excuses going they come up with this?
However we move on but due to time constraints shall just put forward for your consideration THAKI who seems to have taken his form up a notch in recent runs.
good luck to allToday investing in PRINCE OF PILLO to do what no 3yo has done in the past decade namely be successful in the Achillies Stakes which opens the Haydock card today.While making the above statement I have to confess to not having a clue how many may or may not have participated so could be he’s the first in many years.Being an April foal this colt achieved quite a high standard of form given others of his generation will have matured into a more imposing individuals by the time he reached the racecourse.Appearing in a nondescript novice event at Ayr that looked average provided a good start.This form was left well behind when we next saw this colt in the Ripon Hornblower Stakes where he disposed of some decent rivals without ever looking likely to be beat.His next outing was the Gp 2 Flying Childers where he took on Trillium & The Platinum Queen and was probably outclassed although this was the first and only time he’s encountered soft ground.Back at Ayr just five days later on better ground he had no trouble returning to the winners enclosure in the Listed Harry Rosebery Stakes before starting favourite in the Cornwallis Stakes the following month in which I believe he underperformed having had five races in about four months but however in this final contest he did register his best numbers which leads me think there’s still more to come.
good luck to allJudging by the support in the betting market guess I wasn’t the only one who expected more from yesterday’s selection.Watching the race my opinion was that people knew their ‘goose was cooked’ long before the race finished and set me wondering why such a dismal display?
My initial thoughts were that he just couldn’t go the pace,there’s evidence from his juvenile races that maybe this isn’t as far fetched as it may seem,so a step up in trip could be on the cards,but whether this should be 6f or even 7f will perhaps only be tested over time.
So on to todays selection being put forward for your consideration,the biggest task facing PAPA COCKTAIL e/w is overcoming his draw that’s the reason I give it as each way as I believe Stella Barclay’s gelding will drift in the betting market by the time they come under starters orders.Rather surprisingly this will be the geldings first attempt at the minimum trip having been tried at longer trips lately all at 6f but going back he’s run and been placed over 8f also winning over 7f.However this strong travelling son of Churchill in my opinion is worth a try at this distance as there’s every reason to believe it could bring further improvement as he goes in search of a four timer.
This brings me to an idea that’s knocked around in my head for years ever since I took up an active interest in sprints as a area that with research could be used to give one an edge in the betting market and profitably benefit.To most ‘sprints’ are races over five & six furlongs but what if this concept is incorrect and 6f races should be counted as some do with 7f contests call them extended sprints?
Since my days with ‘RaceCaller’ I’ve constantly bumped into horses that although they stay and can win over 6f their true calling would be to the minimum trip and it’s only connections and handlers seeking greater opportunities that will try to stretch the stamina limitations beyond it’s natural boundaries?Although I will concede that many can be equally efficient at both but to my mind there’s always comes a point when one will be dominant
I’m not trying to say that they harm the horse in any way but just don’t play to that particular horses natural ability.For me this has been an intriguing area for some time and yesterday’s selection brought it back to mind.
Any thoughts or comments would be welcome.
good luck to al
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