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It’s a constant fight with myself about how the bets I place should be straight wins or each way the latter providing the price for the place terms at least covers most but hopefully all the stake.Here perhaps I should confess to having yesterday’s bet e/w @ 5/1 so no harm done to the bank balance.
However I do think it will be advantageous to limit the number of races that qualify for inclusion in this experiment to contests up to the eight & a half furlongs as longer ones tend to be slowly run and therefore the pace compromised making any judgements very much at the mercy of the gods in my opinion.
I will also include horses I believe are worth following the next time out or two with Sovereign Slipper being a case in point who maybe can even be tried at the minimum trip.
good luck to allWould have gone along to the course this evening if I could have come up with two or three choices with better than average chances in their respective races.However as is the norm at this time of year for the cards at a/w courses not to be particularly inspiring and horses aren’t the easiest to latch onto with confidence.I’m hopefully having a small bet on Fairy Footprints e/w ,as part of my ongoing experiment,equally because it’s decent form she showed last time but also those much shorter in the market to my mind have been overestimated for various reasons thus I simply believe the selections chances have been down graded in error.There’s one or two in earlier races which if returning to form would be very well handicapped and run up a sequence but I need them to show me first before placing hard earned down.
good luck to allSlightly disappointed with myself for missing a horse that would have qualified for my Dunstall Park experiment somehow managed to convince myself it would run tonight rather than Saturday and of course you can probably guess the rest!
But while investigating that I also came across Shining Al Danah who missed out on a juvenile outing most likely needing time due to a last day of March foaling date.This filly dwelt and ran green on debut in mid April but showed real potential at Yarmouth just 13 days later putting an average field to the sword when quickening clear and winning easily.Made short work of a weak field at Newcastle 162 days later,7 Oct,when didn’t need to perform at her previous level with the margin of victory being only half a length but success never looked in doubt.Tonight makes her handicap debut off 83 which doesn’t look to overburden her and with improvement more than possible I’m hoping to get the winners rolling.
I would stress to readers than this is an EXPERIMENT and horses I write about are not part of the regular selections I post here.
good luck to allHave two qualifiers for my experiment today and lets hope they improve the standings.
Pockley
Court of Session
good luck to allContinuing the experiment with Super Den in the first this evening.
good luck to allThe experiment continues today at my local track with the decision just coming down in favour of Min Till over top weight Follow your Heart.While both have reasons why they may be successful in tonight’s final contest at the track in my opinion recent form just gives the aforementioned the edge as well as being better berthed.The selections last two runs both on the a/w show her to be better suited by an artificial surface with her debut on synthetics being excused on account of not staying.The win early last month was in a comfortable manner with her last time out second being franked by the third winning next time out.
good luck to allBeen a while since a qualifier made it through the filters and I have had a horse to put forward for your consideration as a potential bet.Although AL AGAILA recorded her numbers in a Kempton novice event I believe they merit respect in this handicap off a mark of 79 which I don’t consider overburdens the filly now entering the handicapping arena.In fact it’s an arena she’s capable of stepping up from in the future.Two runs which direct me to this conclusion top and tail her current form.The filly made her debut in a Newbury June novice which has turned out well and her last run in another novice what’s looking like a ordinary event except for the style and the numbers registered.All previous races have been over a mile with this a first attempt beyond with the filly’s pedigree suggesting is within her compass.
As I’m unlikely to post on this tread again before the 25th may I wish one and all a MERRY CHRISTMAS.
good luck to allAlthough all eyes will be looking elsewhere at the bigger tracks & races I believe Dunstall Park is putting on an interesting card this afternoon and with the weather playing it’s part a fair sized crowd I think can be expected.While not at the top of the peaking order I believe the class 3 7f handicap offers us an opportunity to recoup Christmas expenses with MASTER ZOFFANY.For a 4yo going on 5 this gelding hasn’t a lot of racing under his belt and but a single a/w contest to his name which was last time out.However over today’s course & distance the selection being put forward for your consideration showed a real liking for the surface (a/w debut) and registered career high numbers winning without being touched with the whip and once being sent for home nothing represented the slightest danger.
good luck to allPerhaps the appropriate time for an update.
On a personal note it wasn’t a good year but better than 2021 with the losses trimmed and the research coming up with a variation which looks more than promising although maybe a few wrinkles to be ironed out as exactly where the definitive lines need to be drawn.
Horses put forward for consideration by this thread now reads ….. Stakes £193 .. Returns £159.01
the figures quoted are to a £1 win bet with returns calculated to SP.
While watching Newbury may have found a couple of likely qualifiers for tomorrow & Monday but shall have to see how things pan out.
All that remains is for me to wish everyone a happy & prosperous New Year hoping 2023 will be all that you desire.
good luck to allPutting forward for your consideration THE BELL CONDUCTOR who for a now 6yo has has very little racing however since switching stables to present connections this gelding has been transformed progressing with each run all on today’s surface with the latest described as readily by the RP when registering numbers that suggest the selection has every chance of continuing his progress and be very much involved in the business end of this contest although it will be the toughest test to date.
On a completely different note in the near future I’m considering reaching out with some home spun philosophy ideas,thoughts and perhaps even a way of life since pondering questions of who,why & where going back nearly a decade now when I first searched for contentment realising there must be more.
Is there more?
good luck to allThe ‘second half’ of the a/w season has always proved much more enjoyable especially with the Meydan Carnival getting into gear and offering such a feast of top class racing.Although the graded contests hold the attention of many for myself I just love getting stuck into a good handicap and uncovering hidden gems.It’s with this thought in mind that I put forward for you consideration NADER e/w in the 12f handicap.His handler bin Suroor very much exists in the shadow of fellow Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby but is more than capable of turning out a good un as they say.Nader’s record to date doesn’t read very favourably alongside his rivals however certain things need to be taken into account when assessing this geldings chances.First there’s a April foaling date,then a 3yo campaign at Meydan spent mostly on dirt and I believe an insufficient trip.Gelded in the spring of last year he wasn’t seen again until reappearing at Kempton in October when decisively routing his opponents over the longer trip but also did so in a time which suggests he’s up to leaving a mark on better class handicaps.I also believe bin Suroor needed not only to get a run into the horse pre Meydan but to lift his mark enough to be allowed entry.This is going to be the defining race for the selection and maybe just maybe show his true colours.
good luck to allAfter a dismal period between the end of the turf season and the New Year it’s probably sunk in that this is maybe the best time to recharge the batteries as opportunities are rarer than hens teeth and trying the force the issue isn’t a good idea.However we now come to the Meydan carnival and the time the stay at home trainers & riders start the forward thinking to a/w championship day with prize money although not at the Meydan standard isn’t to be sniffed at and a chance for lesser lights to make hay while the sun shines.Such a gelding would be SILKY WILKIE who looks to have come on a bundle and be ready to take the next step up into an above average sprinter following his return from a two month break.Run exclusively at the minimum trip except on his racecourse debut over five & a half at York has proved most consistent but believe his latest run over todays course & distance last time was an all round improvement on anything he had produced previously registering his best numbers to date and looking well suited by the longer trip only narrowly failing coming late & fast with the winner running well again since.The 1lb the selection was raised to my mind doesn’t diminish his chances with a better berth this time.
good luck to allHave decided I can no longer ignore the reality of things and have decided I need more than one string to my bow so along side using the best handicaps will browse among my old speciality namely sprints.Besides keeping the bank ticking over it will enable me to put to use many years of experience.To that end putting forward for your consideration BELLAGIO MAN who I consider an e/w bet to nothing at present odds.
good luck to allAlthough VESPASIAN started his racing over 7f with a place & a win he was dropped down to 6f following his seasonal debut as a 3yo running fairly consistently and with credit but missed most of the second half of the campaign when gelded.Looked in need of the run when returning to my local course in December fading in the final furlong to finish a very good second.The selection improved on that comeback run next time at Lingfield when leading into the last but caught close home,however did put on career high numbers.This will be his first attempt at the minimum trip and with Kim Wexler,an out and out front runner,to give a tow into the race it just might allow him to get back into the winners enclosure.With the stable in good nick and a very useful claimer I’m very hopeful of getting back among the winners.
good luck to allIn a race with a few lightly raced types COOL LIGHTNING appeals most on her handicap debut.Although only just doing enough to win from Prospering the runner up has since run well in a novice event after being allocated a mark of 75 by the handicapper some 8lb above what the selection runs off at Kempton this evening.
good luck to all.Going for a little e/w dabble over at Meydan with SHELIR e/w who’s just big enough to offer a positive return on achieving a place in this event.The only previous attempts this gelding I’m putting forward for your consideration has at trips beyond a mile haven’t been very successful however both were as a 3yo,very much out of form at the time, back in 2019 before joining present connections.His pedigree you may say counts against this trip being ideal but recent runs and a switch of tactics suggest he’s worth taking a chance on to at least get placed although it’s never easy here against the massed Godolphin battalions who will seek to dominate how the contest unfolds.
good luck to allYesterday’s race was painful to watch with Shelir’s rider overdoing the waiting tactics and giving his mount a huge amount of ground to make up on the leaders.Staying at home this afternoon with VADREAM e/w @ Lingfield who in my opinion is much better than the bare form shows.Providing she breaks on something like on terms with the others I believe this mare’s a bet to nothing after mixing it with some of the best sprinters around.
good luck to all
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