- This topic has 60 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
- Total Posts 17716
I don’t think the drift was particularly surprising – Tactic clearly wasn’t happy before the race and John Dunlop is in terrible form (Times Up gave Bay Willow 9lb and a comprehensive beating at the July meeting, yet drifted from an early 4/1 to as big as 13/2 when losing out to the same horse on identical terms 17 days later) – but its severity was sure to raise eyebrows.
Given the way Berling ran yesterday, could it not be that the Arandel horses just aren’t right?
Trainerform is very hard to measure. Flatstats have 2 methods of doing it and TF1 and TF2 both have Dunlop out of form.
His best days are long gone, think he last trained a G1 winner in 2002 and has trained only one G2 winner in the last five years.
GT,
The drift on Eastern Aria really is not comparing like with like, the top two in the market Flying Cloud and Pollys Mark were backed heavily and pushed the higher priced horses out, it happens every day on betfair. My understanding of the point that TDK is making is that a progressive horse that won a Group 3 on his previous start was backed into a decent price all morning and early afternoon gets pushed out alarmingly 20 minutes before the off of the race, and pretty much finishes pulled up, it’s a bit strange IMO.
JohnJ
His best days are long gone, think he last trained a G1 winner in 2002 and has trained only one G2 winner in the last five years.
Agree with that, but Dunlop trained it to win impressively on his previous two starts. As stated in earlier posts, I don’t think the evidence is there to suggest the yard is out of form.
GT,
The drift on Eastern Aria really is not comparing like with like, the top two in the market Flying Cloud and Pollys Mark were backed heavily and pushed the higher priced horses out
That’s exactly the comparisson you should make John.
Age Of Aquarius well backed and Illustrious Blue fairly well backed.
Flying Cloud well backed and Polly’s Mark fairly well backed.
In both cases when some horses shorten dramatically, others will lengthen. Whether it is shorter or longer priced horses, makes no difference. The market’s got to give.In these similar cases Tactic drifts and runs poorly, Eastern Aria drifts and wins. Suggesting the market does not predict the outcome to such a degree as "someone somewhere knows something". Although of course one shortening up is a positive sign.
Value Is EverythingFor what its worth…*No data for the Curragh run.
Date … Horse … Pos … Jockey … 10min … 1Sec
22/05/2010 … Tactic … 1 … J Quinn … 14.5 … 10.5
24/04/2010 … Tactic … 2 … E Ahern … 4.6 … 5.6
26/10/2009 … Tactic … 4 … S Drowne … 1.54 … 1
03/09/2009 … Tactic … 5 … T P O’Shea … 4.4 … 2.819/06/2009 … Tactic … 4 … R Hills … 21 … 15
23/05/2009 … Tactic … 4 … T P O’Shea … 4.6 … 3.8
07/05/2009 … Tactic … 1 … T P O’Shea … 1.58 … 1.1809/10/2008 … Tactic … 3 … R Hills … 5.8 … 3.5
20/09/2008 … Tactic … 4 … D P McDonogh … 21.44 … 28.92The reds are the days he was reported by Raceform as sweating. Today was the first race in 6 where he didn’t race prominently. I put up the 1 second exchange price for those of us not happy with the 99% correct BFSP.
You’re ignoring what factors are actually moving the market GT. In any market there is a reason why a price lengthens and shortens, as said I see no reason why Tactic’s price drifted like a barge so near to the race having been well supported throughout the morning and afternoon.
JohnJ
You’re ignoring what factors are actually moving the market GT. In any market there is a reason why a price lengthens and shortens, as said I see no reason why Tactic’s price drifted like a barge so near to the race having been well supported throughout the morning and afternoon.
JohnJ
Doing no such thing.
The factors are:
John Dunlop possibly out of form. Evidence is limited with 5 2nds since a win suggesting it’s not too bad.
Others geing EXTREMELY well backed late on. Age Of Aquarius looked in excellant codition in the paddock. So did Illustrious Blue to a lesser degree.
Tactic was definitely sweating in the paddock and more importantly, EDGY. Though seemed to calm down a little late on. I was there. Though 11/2 was in my opinion still worth the risk.Did not see Tactic go to post.
May be he was free to post, like he was early in the race. That could also cause a drift.Value Is EverythingI thought there were various reasons to be against Tactic today, mainly the trip (he didn’t seem to stay in the Queen Vase) and I still think you could drive a bus through the holes in his form on his last 2 starts.
Whether I was happy to chase him out to any price to prove the point though is another matter, and I think that is the point TDK is making, the horse drifted like he was dog sick and ran exactly that way.
GT,
In my opinion there are two things that drive a market, fundamentals and sentiment. Fundamentals in my opinion would form a market giving tissue prices etc. Sentiment will then take over and then typically drive a market, and a lot of people will then follow sentiment and thus follow the money. IMO, that’s exactly what occurred today, people followed the money into AoA and Illustrious Blue, however fundamentally there was no reason why Tactic should have drifted so alarmingly unless somebody knew otherwise and initiated this move.
Btw, the drift on Tactic occurred way before he went to post.
JohnJ
Anyone thinking that is Tactics true running is surely having a tin bath.
An alarming drift which happened throughout the day, so unless they went to post mid-morning i’d say the sweating is pure coincidence. The drift was also well underway prior to AOA being ‘steamed’ in the afternoon, so thats a few condescending explanations above blown to bits.
I wouldn’t mind Richard Hills explaining the new hold-up idea too.
Tactic came in to the paddock already sweating and on his toes. So some people might have known even before others saw him paddockside.
John,
Age Of Aquarius and Illustrious Blue’s market moves are important.
When some horses are BACKED, others WILL go the other way. They have to, to maintain the bookmaker’s over-round. Bookmakers have to work to roughly the same over-round all the time, because of tremendous competition. They would NOT just shorten those well backed without pushing others out. If they didn’t then that particular bookie would not get trade.
To think the two are not related is highly questionable. You really think with all that money for AOA and IB, Tactic should remain the same price?
Tactic’s drift was not that "alarming", considering his appearance beforehand and support for other runners.
Value Is EverythingAnyone thinking that is Tactics true running is surely having a tin bath.
An alarming drift which happened throughout the day, so unless they went to post mid-morning i’d say the sweating is pure coincidence. The drift was also well underway prior to AOA being ‘steamed’ in the afternoon, so thats a few condescending explanations above blown to bits.
I wouldn’t mind Richard Hills explaining the new hold-up idea too.
Richard Hills would point to the trip surely, and trying to settle the horse over further. Hence the different TACTIC. Which in hindsight backfired.
Who is right here? First John says Tactic was well backed in the morning and afternoon before drifting late. Now it’s an "alarming drift which happened throughout the day"?
Value Is EverythingOf course they are important, but my view is that the volatile drift on Tactic was not alone initiated by the support for the other two horses. Not sure why you have to CAPITALISE some of your words, I do understand the points you are making, perfectly.
JohnJ
Just to emphasise the words that are important John that’s all.
Why is a 6.4% drift so "alarming", when Age Of Aquarius alone went 21.8% the other way?
Value Is EverythingFWIW I didn’t even have him in the first two on my tissue.
Then again, it’s surprising that the market only really started ‘correcting’ in the last ten minutes or so. Maybe those laying it late weren’t forming an opinion along the same lines as me, upon info mostly available any time since last night, and were doing it for different reasons.
I think paddock evidence is a bit overplayed when explaining these moves. Most paddock studies of any sample size I have seen rarely give impact values less than 0.8 or greater than 1.2 to various types of behaviour, so it’s hard to believe horses are halving and doubling in price on this basis. It’s interesting that today’s big paddock negative (Hamoody), according to RUK, started shortening when the live show opened and this proved more prophetic than the paddock watchers.
Just as intriguing a question, and one where TDK might enlighten us, is why it was so universally short this morning. Did virtually all the bookies in the pricewise table come to the conclusion that he was 100/30 independently or are they all singing from the same songsheet?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.