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I know UK horse racing markets are often laced with inside information, but the betting on this race was drowning in the stuff…
Has anyone got
a) a plausible explanation for why this horse drifted from around 7-2 early on out 6-1+ (despite a 7-1 NR in that period too)
b) any exchange data relating to how much was traded on the horse?
It seemed to me that the horse was drifting despite being backed and that the only thing preventing it from getting bigger and bigger was the time remaining until the race started.
It goes without saying that the horse ran exactly as the psychic market predicted it would – never sighted (despite arguably having the strongest form coming into the race)
I’ve also just read on the RP that the horse returned lame.
Tactic was grossly flattered by his win at The Curragh.
Profound Beauty was found to be in season, she ran a stone below her true form and was given a very gentle ride.
Today Tactic was outclassed on paper and outclassed on grass.TDK,
The horse sweated up profusely in the parade ring, seemed to drift alarmingly after that, certainly didn’t run to form, especially how well it beat Profound Beauty at the Curragh. I was at the Curragh that day, and he didn’t display any of those antics on that occasion.
JohnJ
Tactic was grossly flattered by his win at The Curragh.
Profound Beauty was found to be in season, she ran a stone below her true form and was given a very gentle ride.
Today Tactic was outclassed on paper and outclassed on grass.Even if you take the view he was flattered at the Curragh this statement is nonsense – he had won a Listed race at York by 14 lengths on his previous start.
If you are suggesting his performance today was in any way representative of his ability then you are either completely clueless or on a wind-up.
John at least provides a reason – sweating and being edgy in the paddock would explain a drift of sorts – although not the strength of what played out on Betfair imo.
…completely clueless or on a wind-up
An abundance of that on here at the moment.
Dont know if its relevant but the 3 times Tactic has been reported as sweating in the formbook he’s been beaten although he was still backed on Betfair on 2 of those runs. He finished distressed after his York win.
I’ll put up the market data when I get it, and I’ll check my tissue price later.
If you are suggesting his performance today was in any way representative of his ability then you are either completely clueless or on a wind-up.
Well in that case I must be completely clueless, but in case I’m also completely clueless about my answer too perhaps you better check my betting records in "Lays and plays"
We have discussed at length the exchange market recently- this was a clear example of a horse I thought was fair value at the early 7-2, but I was almost 100% convinced he would run terribly a couple of minutes before the off, purely due to the strength of the drift.
The fact he was edgy and finished lame only convinces me more that there were big players who knew this horse wasn’t at the races today.
Maybe the drift had somthing to do with the fav going from 6/4 to 4/6, as both finished lame I fail to see what the problem is, horses drift every day and a sp of 5/1 from an early 7/2 is hardly unique and the stable’s out of form as well.
It wasn’t a case of the fav shortening and everything else drifting in sympathy – it seemed the weakness in Tactic was being channelled into more confidence in the fav (the winner, Illustriuous Blue actually shortened in the show-phase for example).
I also fail to see the relevance of AOA’s injury – it was clearly a freak incident. Tactic, on the other hand, looked beaten all the way round.
Don’t buy the yard being out of form either. The Racing Post has Dunlops as 67% running to form and John Whitley has them running better than average on his ratings.
Those are far better indicators of trainer form than purely how many winners he has trained recently.
At least with the exchanges the drift is there for all to see unlike the good old days when we only had bookmakers.
Eastern Aria drifted alarmingly too, obvious she wasn’t going to win. Someone, somewhere knew something.
Hold on though.
Sorry, she WON at 16/1.
When one horse is backed as if defeat was out of the question, others who show negatives beforehand drift. Especially those displaying negatives in the paddock.
Age Of Aquarius went from 13/8 early morning price to SP of 4/6. That’s an incredible
21.8% move
(38.2% to 60%). Tactic went from 100/30 to 5/1, a
6.4%
drift (23.1% to 16.7%). There’s bound to be negatives in a race with one so well backed.
Now let’s say it was Age Of Aquarius that drifted "alarmingly", would we not be talking about "someone knew he wasn’t right"?
Tactic sweated up and pulled far too hard.
Value Is EverythingYou have also missed the one about Tactic sweating on two previous occasions and not drifting…
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