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Gerald.
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- November 5, 2009 at 16:53 #13138
Does anyone have a vague idea as to what extent performances improve or deteriorate when an owner decides to move his horse(s) to another yard, please?
I’m just wondering if the change of scenery and loss of familiar faces can prove to be as traumatic and stressful for the horse as it might be for a human being? Or is it that, in terms of results, most horses benefit from moving?
KenNovember 5, 2009 at 18:22 #257283Sometimes they get better.
Sometimes they get worse.
Sometimes it doesn’t matter.
Hope this helps.
November 5, 2009 at 19:22 #257293Thanks Rory, I asked for ‘vague’ and you certainly did me proud. Perhaps I should have asked if anyone has any scientific data one way or t’other. If it’s as inexact a science as your reply seems to suggest then I’d be inclined to think that on average there’s absolutely no point in moving a horse to a new yard if the sole purpose is to improve performance.
All the same, thanks for taking the time to respond.
KNovember 5, 2009 at 19:29 #257297As Rory says its pretty in-exact. If the horse has no ability in the first place then it will struggle regardless. Some trainers have had success this summer (likes of Alison Thorpe/Tim Vaughan) with newcomers to there yards but chances are they just restored horses to prior form and took advantage of lesser handicap marks.
Its an angle worth considering when punting though.
November 5, 2009 at 21:34 #257318It depends why a horse is switching yards. In the majority of cases it seems to be the bigger name trainers casting off those who haven’t made the grade and are unlikely to make the grade. These horses, for the most part, just get worse.
Sometimes you get connections actively seeking a better trainer or a preditory claim by someone thinking along such lines. It’s rare for these to go off much of a price though, even when the stable’s money doesn’t appear to be down (eg North South Divide last week).
I would caution against trying to make money from such moves. Insiders will have a much better line on whether the horse has improved as a result of the change and even those who now find themselves miles ahead of the handicapper are often treated with kid gloves so as not to blow their mark.
November 5, 2009 at 22:16 #257328
One Of The Boys ended last season with a win in April, showing improved form but was promptly sold out of P Webber’s stable in May for a paltry £1200 and has joined T Vaughan ‘who does well with recruits from other stables’I’d question why an 8yo with only 9 runs to his name was a) sold by a small-time owner after gaining the solitary win and b) was knocked down for so small a sum.
Unsound is my gut feeling. Put in as tissue fav tomorrow and whilst form considerations entitle him to be amongst the market leaders, it’s likely it’s the new stable responsible for the current – underlaid IMO – odds around 2/1.
Will ‘inside knowledge’ from the Vaughan cohort shore up the price or allow it to drift? Suspect the latter personally.
November 6, 2009 at 06:27 #257360Ken, you can do a bit of scientific research here…..
http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/ … Q4ODQ0OQ==
Scroll down to the pink filters for…..
Trainer compared to Most Recent RaceObviously it will only give you data for the horses first run for a new stable but it does provide a good general idea of what your looking for.
November 6, 2009 at 09:23 #257382Does anyone have a vague idea as to what extent performances improve or deteriorate when an owner decides to move his horse(s) to another yard, please?
I’m just wondering if the change of scenery and loss of familiar faces can prove to be as traumatic and stressful for the horse as it might be for a human being? Or is it that, in terms of results, most horses benefit from moving?
KenSurely the key Ken, is whether the new trainer is better,this is the main factor. For sure horses benefit from the Spring grass in Wales and I always talk to any new arrivals from France in French in the early days to make them feel at home. It doesn`t take them long to learn Welsh or English mind you.
If Nicholls unloads horses, following his idea not to bother with horses under £100 k ,then they will find enthusiastic trainers ready to work with them. Also there are many trainers who cannot find the time to work out a horses problems,injuries or whatever, but many sympathetic trainers who enjoy finding out whats wrong and putting it right.
When these turn up at the start having been restored as it were,this is when the stable has it on.
Peter Bowen is a classic exampleNovember 6, 2009 at 11:18 #257400Also there are many trainers who cannot find the time to work out a horses problems,injuries or whatever, but many sympathetic trainers who enjoy finding out whats wrong and putting it right.
When these turn up at the start having been restored as it were,this is when the stable has it on.
Peter Bowen is a classic example.
Indeed he is. Following that logic, Roddy, would you happen to know whether he had the nuts on Valley Ride ahead of his Rasen win? More races to be won with this ex-Arbuthnot sickbed-sitter if keeping sounder for longer.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
November 6, 2009 at 12:36 #257413Also there are many trainers who cannot find the time to work out a horses problems,injuries or whatever, but many sympathetic trainers who enjoy finding out whats wrong and putting it right.
When these turn up at the start having been restored as it were,this is when the stable has it on.
Peter Bowen is a classic example.
Indeed he is. Following that logic, Roddy, would you happen to know whether he had the nuts on Valley Ride ahead of his Rasen win? More races to be won with this ex-Arbuthnot sickbed-sitter if keeping sounder for longer.
gc
Badger or Hennesey maybe even? I don`t think he was convinced but I had a little interest at 38/1 on Betfair. If he wins it next year they could consider changing the name.
November 6, 2009 at 15:09 #257445Fine example today with Soft Spoken Guy turning over the hotpot of Howard Johnson’s in Hexham.
SSG boasted some smart bumper form in Ireland, including a second to Pandorama, and was subsuquently bough by Aiden Murphy at last year’s Brightwell Sales for £60k and sent to Philip Hobbs.
Showed very little for Hobbs in deep winter ground in 3 quick runs and was then sold at Doncaster in May to Maurice Barnes for £3,200.
He hinted ability for his new yard on his first start in Perth before unseating rider the last day, prior to his win today.
Illustrates that an operation like Hobbs can be essentially a numbers a game and if new incumbents don’t show ability quickly they are passed on.
Transfer to a smaller yard and better ground has obviously done wonders for horse.
November 7, 2009 at 06:51 #257547Would anyone have a list of trainers who are trained as vets?
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