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Hi Reet,I believe it has to do with the Shed value .Having won over a mile what more does he have to do? I don’t believe that RIP will have recovered in time but who am I to judge.Certainly Golden Sword needs a rest. incidentally readers don’t seem to get the notion that Ballydoyle must run their horses at top speed to determine how good they are for breeding purposes.No point winning French style races; dawdle for two and race for five with one to change gear? Amazing that some people say they are trying to fool the breeders and others think they race too hard! As the man said You can fool some of the people all the time and that is enough to make a living.
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Paul Kellaway (R.I.P.) was famous for it. He was out there searching for cut up Group races with bad horse and very often found them. "Placed in group company" sells was his idea.
You say Ballydole are thinking Shed value and you may well be right but I think you might find they were doing it more so with Rip when they ran him in the Derby and the Eclipse. Just the way the races fell that he ran in them.
SMS ran Conduit in the Eclipse in the hope it would increase his srud value and there is absolutely no doubt Oxx is avoiding running Sea the Stars over 1m4f again in the fear he’ll get beat.
He snuck a cheeky one when he won the 7f would be 1m4f Derby and they are resting on that in the hope it will fool the Breeders.
Of course they don’t have a hope in hell of doing so with the real pros of the game but no doubt if he remains unbeaten he will be quite popular in some quarters.
People seem to think it’s just case of winning A B and S and at stud you are made but it doesn’t work like that. However it never stops some of them from trying to pull the wool over their eyes .
I think Oxx is being over protective and should have taken his chance in the King George and proved beyond doubt he gets 1m4f but he knows better than I do I suppose. The Breeders wont take his Derby win as seriously as they would if he had gone and won at Ascot.
You have to respect AOB he is a scared of nothing and at least tries which seems to have paid dividends.
Breeders don’t just look at what you won they also look at what you beat during your career. Fussy old lot at the end of the day.
I don’t know why people are are rating Rip’s ability at a maile on his guineas run. He had a setback beforehand, and was quite obviously rusty that day, he ran a very similar race to Mastercraftsman. And look what MC has done since at a mile, and he had no stone bruise.
Yep, just look what MC has done since; won on bottomless ground at the Curragh, and a hard-fought last-gasp win around Ascot’s stiff Old MIle, mainly courtesy of his 2 pacemakers setting such a searing test.
You’d really have to wonder why MC’s next engagement is in the 10.5f International, and not in tomorrow’s race, wouldn’t you?
You are missing the point though, MCM probably does need further than a mile but his St James Palace form saw him turn around his Guineas form by around 4 lengths. Sure they are going the 10 furlong route now, but clearly he was capable of much better over a mile than he showed at Newmarket.
I think Rip Van Winkle is a pure miler and did not see out the trip in the Eclipse. My worry tomorrow is the track will test his resolution and balance to the hilt and taking that into account Paco Boy looks the safest option though RVW is without doubt (for me) the most talented horse in the race.
RVW’s participation is in doubt with a heel problem, but O’Brien will give him until after he gets to Goodwood to see what the deal is.
So that poses a couple of questions….
When does rule 4 come into play, is it 24 hours before a race ?
If RVW dosen’t run, will he pull out the pace maker meaning all e/w bets will be for 2 places ?
If you have an accumulator on, will the accumulator still stand if you went NRNB…i think it does ?
After watching Paco Boy win at Sandown earlier in the year I thought he really suited this race and would have backed him AP if i could have, but that was back in April!
I think he’s conceding too much weight to Ghanaati and the difference in prices doesnt justify this huge advantage for the younger horses.
Having said that who knows how Ghanaati will do on a different going, however her breeding suggests the softer ground should be no problem out of Giants Causeway. Beacon Lodge appeals but again is too high in the weights. Not sure about RVWs mile credentials either.
And going off less weight than she did at Ascot who knows what time Ghanaati is going to run if the rain stays away tomorrow.
Ghanaati to win, Lahaleeb for the place cover (if it does rain)
"reet hard" wrote:
I don’t know why people are are rating Rip’s ability at a maile on his guineas run. He had a setback beforehand, and was quite obviously rusty that day, he ran a very similar race to Mastercraftsman. And look what MC has done since at a mile, and he had no stone bruise.
Yep, just look what MC has done since; won on bottomless ground at the Curragh, and a hard-fought last-gasp win around Ascot’s stiff Old MIle, mainly courtesy of his 2 pacemakers setting such a searing test.
You’d really have to wonder why MC’s next engagement is in the 10.5f International, and not in tomorrow’s race, wouldn’t you?Aidan has said it all: Mastercraftsman turned around the 2000 form significantly, so more can be expected to come from Rip Van Winkle at a mile. And I’m not one of the people who has backed him in every race at every track as somebody put it, I’ve never backed the horse before in my life. But I think tomorrow (if he takes his chance) will be Rip’s time to shine.
I’m stuck I admit it.
Rip’s participation is now far from certain which isn’t a shock. He’s just one of those horse’s isn’t he you can’t rely on him for anything. The type to always have a hard luck story. On form he’s capable of winning comfortably but I can’t risk money on him.
Ghanaati is a good filly. The only possible negative conditions wise is the ground. There is rain forecast. Times today suggested the ground was good perhaps edging towards good to soft and if it does rain we can’t be sure how well she’ll handle it. She’s a filly that has broken time records which strongly suggests she’s a fast ground filly. She may handle good cut, she may not you’re taking that chance.
Paco Boy is a good horse but he’s a low class group one winner. He’s a low 120’s horse who will win poorish group one’s but he won’t beat top group one horses. I’m not convinced Goodwood will suit him either. It should as he has speed but his best performances have come at Newbury and at Ascot which are more gallopping tracks.
Lord Shanakil is decent but shouldn’t be good enough quite and the others are a long way behind.
Ghanaati for me but I’d be worried about further rain. If it stays dry it’ll be better for her chances.
It’s incredible. The amount of excuses they’ve now made for Rip is incredible. Caught on the wrong side of the track, stone bruise, didn’t get the trip, gave himself a knock before the Eclipse and now a hind hoof problem. Do Coolmore think they’re fooling anyone?
It fucks up the whole thing. Bookies will still hit people with rule 4, even if you took a price a couple of days before the bet. So if you took ghanaati at a good price it’s hammered down, and if you went for an e/w price it will be only 2 places if RVW and the pace setter don’t run.
Doesn’t sound too promising as far as Rip Van Winkle’s participation goes.
Unfortunate, yes, but isn’t it funny how many fancied horses in big races suddenly encounter some injury or other a day or two before the off.
We hardly hear of any unfancied horses in these big races encountering similar problems.
Sorry, it’s that old cynic in me rearing its ugly head again.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I think Rip will run to be honest.
Just reading up aparently the rain isn’t expected till the afternoon which is good for the race.
Oh he’ll definitely run. It’s just something to fall back on if he loses and something to talk him up if he wins.
Yes….Coolmore are thrilled to promote the fact their prospective stallion has seemingly chronic foot problems!!!
The horse missed engagements last season (just three runs which is not common for a O’Brien 2 year old) and has had problems in the run up to the 2000 Guineas and Eclipse.
I would love to read the exact quote where anyone blamed his foot problems for his defeat at Newmarket or Sandown.
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Aidan has said it all: Mastercraftsman turned around the 2000 form significantly, so more can be expected to come from Rip Van Winkle at a mile. And I’m not one of the people who has backed him in every race at every track as somebody put it, I’ve never backed the horse before in my life. But I think tomorrow (if he takes his chance) will be Rip’s time to shine.
What Aidan forgot to mention was the stiffer track and the stronger pace, which was always going to be in MC’s interest, and against Delegator’s. Neither is guaranteed tomorrow, when RVW will surely need them.
Fwiw, Lahaleeb has always been a better filly with cut in the ground, and ran really well in the Coronation considering the fast surface. At 33/1, (each way, assuming the dead 8 ), she looks a much better proposition than Ghanaati at a fraction of the price.
Well my first thoughts are as follows.
Rip Van Winkle
has all the hallmarks of being the next US Ranger:
A Coolmore horse that everyone wants to back and thus is overbet and doesn’t deliver.
Unbelievable.
I’m stuck I admit it.
Rip’s participation is now far from certain which isn’t a shock. He’s just one of those horse’s isn’t he you can’t rely on him for anything. The type to always have a hard luck story. On form he’s capable of winning comfortably but I can’t risk money on him.
It took a top class Derby winner to beat him last time out. He destroyed a King George winner. This is like Dylan Thomas after the POW all over again. Look at the actual form and not the form figures.
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