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On the contrary to most it seems,
I think Sir Gerhard is the worst value.
Firstly, only 1 champion bumper winner this century has won the supreme. They have a terrible record in the race. Also a vast majority of champion bumper winners haven’t turned out to be true grade 1 hurdlers.
I’ve heard someone mention that the champion bumper form is the best form so far for this? Is that a joke? Firstly, id always take hurdles form over flat form. Secondly, that was not a vintage bumper what so ever. It’s an average champion bumper at best. Many stronger champion bumpers than that over the years.
How anyone can slag off Jonbon for winning 2 falsely run races I will never know. Both races were a joke at the start which is factual. Doesn’t many horse that takes part in that kind of race is scratched from the form book. He’s laughed at his rivals on both occasions, couldn’t have done anymore than he did. Then there’s people saying he won’t like a strong pace? I mean that is possible but to me he has looked on both occasions like he would be better getting a lead and better off a strong pace being able to settle better as he’s a keen goer. I feel like this looks fairly obvious. Can’t see how a strong pace will make him worse anyway. He’s laughed at many 130’s horses looking like he could have gone round again. Colonel mustard is near 140 rated and if you think he was only as good as the winning margin that day then get down specsavers. So to me Jonbon is easily capable of 150.
Constitution Hill is a bit easier to assess and agree with most that he’s probably capable of 150+ too.
Neither have had any questions asked of them yet. I don’t see that as a negative, to me it means their ceiling is so far above anything else so far it’s scary. Both already look capable of 150 runs to me and look an unbelievable pair of novices.The bumper form is ok at best and Sir G has beaten what looks like about a 115 hurdler on hurdling debut and people are knocking the Hendo pairs form!! Hahaha
Sir G is priced on the basis that because he won a bumper he is therefore ferny hollow or envoi allen and recency bias that punter believe all bumper winners will now be superstars when history tells you they aren’t in most cases. It also wasn’t a vintage champion bumper. Sir G big lay
Dave Jennings has been wetting himself over Constitution Hill so cross that one off your list lol
Jaso, on the bumper, more recently it has brought along good horses and especially from Elliot/WPMs which this horse obviously stems from (both lol). You say it’s not a great renewal, let me guess Kilcruit is the one your really focussing on there- he’s blatently got a problem. Elle Est Belle will be a fine mare in time, i just think she wants further and the way that Ascot race went for a horse that wants further imo was run, will have not suited her at all. Three Stripes Life certainly looks good doesn’t he?
Wouldn’t say it’s the strongest renewal ever but everything points towards it being a pretty ok edition of the race.On your points about Jonbon and his Ascot race, it probably didn’t suit any of them to be fair- he’s done it well enough. Any points i made on the pace of the race were more at Mike who seems dead set on the horse, when in reality he’s run 3 times on a proper racetrack and is still a relative unknown. He’s run in 2 hurdle races at a small pace, that’s not to say a fast pace won’t suit him in time, but will that time be March? Does he have the relative experience to cope with that level right now? That has to be factored in.
You say about his form but there’s enough in the level of his bumper form, that if he jumps and runs like Leopardstown i think it’s fair to assume he’d do exactly what Jonbon has done so far anyway. It’s worth remembering your version of a 115 horse is probably 125 at least in England (lol).
Basically, i think every single horse that wins a race half decent has been cut to pieces by the bookies this year.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!“Does he have the relative experience to cope with that level right now?”
Yes. 3 runs and a PTP with another run to come.
CH has less.
Something else to mention is that Jonbon has more in common to previous winners Altior and Shishkin in that he was the one in the season previews with the trainer that was being talked about as a potential superstar.
Constitution Hill on the other hand was hardly talked about at all and has come from nowhere in comparison.
So a Jonbon win would be your typical Supreme winner for Henderson.
“Does he have the relative experience to cope with that level right now?”
Yes. 3 runs and a PTP with another run to come.
CH has less.”
The relative experience going from 2 dawdles so far, to a championship pace, is what i mean Mike.
You’re saying he will be suited to the faster pace, he could be in time, but it might catch him out this March. He’s had little or no experience of a race with any sort of pace. He’s done everything so far at his own pace as no other horse would actually run.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!“but it might catch him out this March.”
I’d be surprised if that is the case in March. Henderson’s quotes about him saying “he’s very good all class no doubt about that” means in all probability he will know what to do off a proper pace.
Fair enough Mike, i know well enough now when you fancy a horse, the rose tinted glasses are always on
Hope they all go there anyway and showdown. Sir G needs to get through DRF firstly.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Haha rose tinted, i’m just siding with one and its just a question of whether he lives up to the pre-season excitement of Henderson’s previous winners. He’s also still got to do the business on his next start.
Yeah he has, but to be honest, i’d struggle to think of many 2m hurdlers in the UK i’ve seen this season that would challenge him or CH. The strength in depth is incredibly poor as has been the case for sometime. Kevin Blake touched on this on his Betfair Pod. All well these two beating up Uk horses, but are they any use? Metier looked ok last year until he met proper horses for example. Don’t get me wrong i think both Nickys are damn sight better than him. Colonel Mustard was the closest to Jonbon and he’d not be near the top of many lists of Irish novice hurdlers- at all.
I hope they all turn up here, and Nicky doesn’t split them. Proper interesting to watch.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sir Gerhard beat trees first time out in a moderate time Keenan of Attheraces said, but i’m not going to criticise the horse for it, you beat what’s put in front of you in any given race. With Mullins and Henderson we know they are working back from the big Cheltenham day anyway. As an example, Shishkin, in his preps, the runners ups were hurdlers no better than OR139. Didn’t stop him winning the Supreme. So we can criticise the Henderson horses preps all we like, but don’t be surprised if it matters not one jot as far as one of them is concerned.
Only reason I’m a bit against Sir Gerhard in the Supreme is that I don’t think he’ll be quite quick enough for 1st place against one (or both) of the Henderson horses and would be better off in the Ballymore. As I understand it, the plan was the Ballymore pre-season but due to Kilcruit’s present demise the trainer’s hand has been forced a little bit to possibly change plan if he does well at the DRF. I might be wrong of course, Sir Gerhard may still rock up in this, its just my view on the race at present.
Yep WPM did mention Kilcruit for a Supreme more, but personally i could never quite understand it.
Watch the bumpers back, he was finishing the strongest, and looked to me, like the stayer.
Tony Mullins even suggested he’s a stayer from his time training him.
Appreciate It wasn’t a Supreme horse last year, well he turned out to be.
We’ll see. There’s plenty of excitement over the 3 of them anyway.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Sir Gerhard has looked to have plenty of pace in his bumpers and first hurdle start to me
Kilcruit visibly lost his action turning in the other day so something clearly not right with him
Been loads of winners come out of the champion bumper
And otoole who split kilcruit/sir gerhard at punchestown bolted up over an insufficient trip on his hurdles debut
Be interesting to see how sir gerhard gets on at the DRF
Yeah some nice points there in response to my post. All I would say to further my point is that, when I refer to the champion bumper, it’s not ‘bad’ form as such. I just think it was an average champion bumper. Every single year there’s loads of winners come out of the bumper , that’s not what I’m debating. I’m saying last years bumper wasn’t as strong as envois year or ferny hollow’s year in my opinion. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong in time….
I think Elle est Belle is a 125-130 hurdler at the minute. Kilcrut clearly not great but could have an issue. Three strip life probably a bit better than 130. And a host of 120-130 horses in behind.
Also I feel kilcrut was actually the better bumper horse of the 2 for the year and the punchestown form is maybe a better guide in my eyes with Sir G beaten.I also think Sir G would be more suited to the ballymore.
He’s also up against 2 horses that really do give me similar vibes to Shishkin/Altior standard on what they’ve done so far. I could be wrong about 1 of them but I’d expect atleast 1 of the 2 to run over 150 which would win many renewals of this race.
All those reasons are why I actually think Sir G is the worst value and priced on his bumper form which I don’t think is as good as some other bumper winners form is. That’s my whole arguement. If it turns out both hendos aren’t superstars and the bumper was actually one of the best Recent times then Sir G will likely win.
All 3 are terrible value realistically
In previous years they’d be
Constitution hill 7/2-4/1
Jonbon 9/2-5/1
Sir gerhard 7/1-8/1But the bookies clearly lost big time on ante post last year with very obvious horses like shiskin, monkfish, allaho, minella indo etc etc winning
Id be very confident in saying that in the long run youd lose money backing horses with the form and profiles of the top 3 at their current prices
If your not on already much better off waiting till the day
Firms will do offers like money back free bet first 5, money back as cash all losers etc etc
They will be gagging to get your business for the week with first race offers
The figures put up in the CB last season are better than envois year FF, i cant remember a year they posted a figure this high? the sectionals back the form up, the form backs the form up so far, you already have two grade 1 placed horses from it and they where a mile away from the front two, kilcruit clearly has issues… everything so far points to it being a solid bumper
Would ferny hollow have been mullins supreme horse last season if not for injury? Yes he would have, would he have won? Yes
Would envoi allen have beaten klassical dream? At the time KD would have rerouted to the ballymore, so yes, at the time he would have won it
Its just circumstance that makes your stat true,
I dont have an entirely strong opinion on the race other than jonbon wont win, CH could easily run 150, thats the case for SG & DD also though (more so the former), id suspect this is alot closer than 2/1, vs 5/1 and 16/1, nothing should be shorter than 5s imo (antepost)
As good as CH looks like jack has alluded to, the british horses are generally rotten, metier put up a similar figure in the tolworth last season (ill eat my own arm if CH isnt a better horse than metier) but the point stands,
The irish, are lightyears ahead of the english currently & ruling out there top two in the betting, is, dangerous
Dysart dynamo @ 16/1, ive settled on at this point is still the best value IMO i may put a few more £, he will likely bolt up on sunday.
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