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As expected
Melon ruby
Bunk off early townend
Cilaos emery David mullins
Crack mome Danny mullinswhere does it say this? mullins horses no jockeys on the racecards i’m seeing
Wikipedia has already decided that tomorrow’s race is done and dusted https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Novices’_Hurdle
Worth remembering that you can have up to £20 on with Skybet here and get it back as a free bet if it loses
Thanks Joe, I’ll be taking advantage of that. It might also be worth noting
that Boylesports are offering money back if your horse falls at the 1st or last
and also if it finishes 2nd or 3rd to the SP favourite. I think the last part
applies to bets struck within 24 hours of the race. I believe that’s for all
races at Cheltenham, and to a £20 stake, but check the small print for yourselves.I just want Labaik to agree to start; is it too much to ask of him?#littlemonkey
someone from the yard today said if he starts hes got a big chance, has a massive engine, probably one to watch in running if he takes off
I just want Labaik to agree to start; is it too much to ask of him?#littlemonkey
I believe Coral are refunding as free bet on refuse to starts
Was going to sit this one out Joe, as I intend to do with a few of them, but might just take advantage of this offer for Labaik
Does anyone know what sort of record Willie Mullins has with first time headgear? I know it depends on the horse for needing it, but it seems unusual for Mullins to put headgear on a novice. I ask because I have just read Cilaos Emery will be wearing a hood tomorrow. Detrimental or a good thing? I have already backed it, so no harm done, just wondered if anyone had any input…
I just want Labaik to agree to start; is it too much to ask of him?#littlemonkey
I believe Coral are refunding as free bet on refuse to starts
Very interesting. Definitely keep that in mind as he is a good horse.
Think I’ll back River Wylde though. Won’t be at all surprised if Melon wins easy but of his I like Bunk Off Early.
I’m not a fan of free bets or refunds for notorious refuseniks. The likelihood of refusal is always factored into the price – you can’t have it both ways. Bookies set a bad precedent for over-entitled Twitter whiners with many of these goodwill gestures.
Been asking myself the exact same question re the headgear on cilaos emery. I have liked this horse since the bumper win and backed on all starts, just pulled a bit too hard last time out and got done on the line. 22/1 happy to chance each way regardless.
Martin
I’ve got to be against Melon and Ballyandy at the prices. Melon has bags of scope for improvement and obviously well thought of by the yard, but I can’t rate the form and lacks experience for a race like this. Thought I was going to be with Ballyandy here, but stable seem in poor form and younger horses seem to be more suseptible to viruses. 1 winner in 52 (since Ballyandy).
Done Melon’s stable companion 7/1 Bunk Off Early – second in the Delloite and Henderson’s impressive Dovecote winner 8/1 River Wylde. Both could be suited by conditions and imo should be closer to two favourites in the market.
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I’m not a fan of free bets or refunds for notorious refuseniks. The likelihood of refusal is always factored into the price – you can’t have it both ways. Bookies set a bad precedent for over-entitled Twitter whiners with many of these goodwill gestures.
Another I don’t get is how they benefit from the NRNB thing? as there seems to be no reduction in price, surely I should just back everything about a week before the festival, and then end up with a lot of good bets as several of the favourites drop out (like what happened in the surpreme?)
There’s a tendency to think make it ante-post or don’t, I mean bet with balls and if your horse doesn’t run, then so frigging what. Just move on to the next bet.
Done Melon’s stable companion 7/1 Bunk Off Early – second in the Delloite and Henderson’s impressive Dovecote winner 8/1 River Wylde. Both could be suited by conditions and imo should be closer to two favourites in the market.
I hope you’re right.
I think it’s between these 2, I also think Elgin is better on good ground, therefore River Wylde’s beating of him going away is close to Neon Wolf’s win and I don’t think anything here could have beat Elgin any more impressively.
These things don’t always work out but it would be nice to have a few winners on top of the enjoyment I’ll get regardless from watching the races.
I’m on Melon and the one I’m most concerned about is Bunk off early. Can see him coming there cruising at the last on a double handful, he’d surely be a back to lay in running if nothing else.
I did consider River Wylde for this when he was 14/1. He was very capable looking last time out but I’m just not confident enough in his overall form.
The most worrying thing for me was the last time River Wylde ran at Cheltenham. Yes, it was a Bumper but he was a bitterly disappointing favourite that day, weakening in the last 2 furlongs to finish 12th of 16 runners, beaten 40 lengths. You can forgive that run if you wish but it’s a question mark for me about him coming up the hill today. That turned out to be an awful Bumper race as well, zero wins from 41 subsequent runs.
River Wylde beat Grand Turina, who won a race on Sunday, but I feel it is a mistake to take that as much of a form boost because the latter horse beat a maiden rated 120 who was favourite and conceding 10 lbs to the winner. In the context of this race it’s not really relevant in my opinion.
Talking of that race, the horse who was favourite was Meribel from the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable. This has not been the only horse from that yard to disappoint recently and the stable are just 1/23 the last fortnight, for a strike rate of less than 5%. That seems the wrong time to be going cold for Cheltenham. It casts question marks for Ballyandy and The New One today in my opinion.
I felt laying Melon and Ballyandy was the call here. They can’t both win and I think they are both way too short. Getting both beaten seems well doable to me. Melon is purely there based on reputation, Bunk Off Early holds better form at twice the odds but I have had my doubts about the Deloitte so can’t back him. Ballyandy is atypical of Supreme winners with just the one win this season and that was also in a handicap, his profile doesn’t scream favourite for this race to me and the early runners from that Betfair Hurdle never showed up in the Imperial Cup at all.
Ballyandy has contracted more due to other horses falling away from this, than any boost to the form and with the stable having horses pulled up and getting beaten a long way this month, it’s a concern for me.
Much as I try, I can’t find one to back here at all. It seems an uninspiring line up compared to previous years.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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