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that day I learned that Value is something that bookmakers create for themselves, not for the punter. Anyone in the know would have been on that horse, but not one person stood in a bookies backing every punted horse 2 mins before the off. The horse was called Wendel. Just my thoughts on value.
Ah yes, in a Plumpton maiden hurdle?
When the favourite Kerayasi jumped poorly and second fav Murphy pulled hard. Both those two along with Wendel having their first runs over jumps. Wendel after a long absence and first start in this country/since coming over from Germany. No form to go on and pot luck how horses will run/jump unless you’re in the know. No form for off course bookmakers to work on either. Perfect example of a race where off course bookmakers take no chances, “Early prices” are betting to a massive over-round. Everything put in extremely short and allowed to drift out.This also perhaps the perfect example of a race “form” punters should keep their money in their pockets. Only punters with inside knowledge have any chance of getting “value”. Your 7/2 proved excellent value, FF; just not as excellent as 10/1.
Although I would not advise judging “Value” as a concept on one race alone.
You remember it well!! lol.
Yes I agree with you, it was just the day when I realised that a ‘book’ isn’t always what you think it is. If that makes sense!
Laid off my Moon Racer bets at 6’s for a profit.Will back him on the day if he runs.
Also Sky are doing the first race special again but the are restricting the amounts
https://www.skybet.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/event/20430614#
I’ll tell you what, forumites. If Moon Racer goes for the Champion Hurdle and Consul De Thaix turns up, I reckon he’s just about the best horse in the race. He’s 145+. 145+ is probably going to be good enough to win it. I think Movewiththetimes also looks nice.
Good to have you back Steve, this site badly missed your insight
Am I the only person to find this a little bit insulting to the many very good contributors on here.
I hope it’s not insulting to other contributors. It certainly shouldn’t be taken that way.
I’ve made over 5000 posts on this site. Right or wrong in my opinion, it was always well researched and well considered in the approach. I’ve helped a lot of people by posting videos of races they may have missed, particularly from French racing. If someone asks for my opinion on any horse I’ll always give it my best shot by watching the race a few times and giving an honest appraisal, whether it disagrees with their own view or not.
Newer members need not feel insulted, it’s early days and only time can help cement you on a forum.
A forum needs a mix of stalwarts, newcomers and people who drop in and out of the picture. It’s all part of the overall make-up of any long standing Forum.
There are excellent contributors here as you have said. I’ll be doing my best to match the standard and, as always, trying to spot early ante-post opportunities, as I did when nominating Caravaggio and Lady Aurelia for Royal Ascot races two months prior to the races last season.
I was only a reader whilst you were here previously but always took notice of your horses.
Nice to see you back
I’ll tell you what, forumites. If Moon Racer goes for the Champion Hurdle and Consul De Thaix turns up, I reckon he’s just about the best horse in the race. He’s 145+. 145+ is probably going to be good enough to win it. I think Movewiththetimes also looks nice.
Do you not think Broken Soul will rock up with a rating of 150?
I’ll tell you what, forumites. If Moon Racer goes for the Champion Hurdle and Consul De Thaix turns up, I reckon he’s just about the best horse in the race. He’s 145+. 145+ is probably going to be good enough to win it.
Stay off the sauce Zark
I’ll tell you what, forumites. If Moon Racer goes for the Champion Hurdle and Consul De Thaix turns up, I reckon he’s just about the best horse in the race. He’s 145+. 145+ is probably going to be good enough to win it. I think Movewiththetimes also looks nice.
Do you not think Broken Soul will rock up with a rating of 150?
Made a right mess of my post.
Stay off the sauce Zark.
I’ll tell you what, forumites. If Moon Racer goes for the Champion Hurdle and Consul De Thaix turns up, I reckon he’s just about the best horse in the race. He’s 145+. 145+ is probably going to be good enough to win it. I think Movewiththetimes also looks nice.
And the last maiden to win the Supreme was?
Ballyandy confirmed runner here…
Interesting stat :
Only 4 runners in the last 6 versions started 10/1 or under having finished in the top 5 in last years Champion Bumper. 3 won, the other finished second.
I should of cashed out.
Thanks to everyone who welcomed me back.
I genuinely just left because I felt the constant bickering was bringing the forum down. I have been working on toning down my style and being far less confrontational. I was on another forum for a while but the quality of discussion just wasn’t as high as this forum and the amount of it was disappointingly low. Some nice people there as well as here but the moderators were too heavy handed and they didn’t seem to let you question their views on a particular horse. Anyway, that’s all in the past now.
Looking at the Supreme from quite a way back, I have always felt Melon was way short. Yes, he made an excellent debut, yes, he could be another star for the Mullins team, but 3/1, as he was then, was unbelievably short odds.
The biggest way I could compare relative value is by considering that Melon was 3/1 for the Supreme, having won a maiden, while Vautour, in his year, had won a Grade 2 and the Grade 1 Deloitte, yet went off 7/2 for the Supreme.
I was wondering if there is any chance Defi Du Seuil might run here? He’s long time been favourite for the Triumph but I just wonder if Charli Parcs and others may represent JP there and Defi Du Seuil looks like the best chance the owner has of landing the Supreme. 16/1 with Ladbrokes is a huge price and I am tempted by that as a cover against my bet on him for the Triumph, just in case they did switch him. It doesn’t need much at 16/1 as an insurance policy of sorts.
I can’t have Consul De Thaix here, he’s a five times raced maiden who cut no ice at last year’s festival in the Triumph Hurdle, when he looked seriously outpaced on the good ground. He has those two bits of handicap form with Brain Power but got a full stone and a crucifixion on the second occasion.
Mind you, if Consul De Thaix did manage to lift the Supreme, it wouldn’t half be a boost to Brain Power’s form. Brain Power is my biggest potential winner at the Festival, I have been building up at 12/1, 10/1, 8/1 and 15/2. I just feel horses like Petit Mouchoir, Buveur D’air and Yanworth are very beatable and poor value odds. Limini is a ridiculous price in my opinion and is a sure sign to me that Mullins is bluffing his way with a busted flush going into the great Champion Hurdle Poker match. Hopefully Brain Power is the Ace in Henderson’s hole and not the flop.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I personally can’t have CDT either. I think 153 is needed to win this race.
Altior was a special year maybe 160.
I’m still convinced last years supreme is one of the best ever and nothing has happened since the last time I said that to change anything.
So although the champion hurdle looks very open I think last seasons novices will dominate.
Buveur dair
Petit mouchoir
Yanworth(albeit he was Neptune not supreme last year)I realise that the Melon form is not strong and we know very little about him from his 1 run except that he beat a horse that’s not up to much by 10 L on the bridle. The tactic of blindly supporting the Mullins favourite because it has worked 3 out of the last 4 years has worked well up until now. I’m trying to find the Altior in the race; the horse that has very good form in the book and looks a real star and I can’t find one.
Ballyandy I believe is overated; he was beaten for pace by Messire Des Obeaux and I just can’t see him being good enough to win The Supreme. Moon Racer by association (only narrowly beating Ballyandy) is also a poor selection based on his work this season. 5 months off the course is hardly an ideal prep; I have a feeling something wrong with him. He may run but I don’t think he will be up to much. Going on form and speed the two horses I like best are Bunk Off Early and Defi Du Seuill with the Juvenile Allowance; but he’ll run in the Triumph unless its soft.
When Willie says that Ruby won’t have any trouble picking Melon over Bunk Off Early it makes me think that Melon must be on another level to Bunk Off Early and I know a sound bite from a trainer is not a line of form but with his record in this race I think it has to count for something. I have Melon at 14’s to win any race so I’m happy with that; not suggesting that 3/1 is good value, in fact it’s woeful but the bookies tend to **** themselves when it comes to a Mullins favourite on the opening day. I think Paddy Power have already stated they are exposed to Melon big time with bets going back as far as last summer.
10/10 Vautour. Far to many posters looking for a miracle. If its not broke,then dont try to fix it when it comes to Mullins in novice events. Sure you do a few quid thanks to the merry-go-round that happens,but in general,i think its profitable. Melon or Crack Mome win the Supreme and i’ll be getting the flags out
I know several on another forum who think Moon Racer is a damn good bet for the Champion Hurdle but I just don’t see it myself. No Bumper winner has ever gone on to win the Champion Hurdle, and even in a far from vintage season for the race, Moon Racer has to probably find about a stone and a bit. His mark was retrospectively raised to 148 but the only heft whatsoever to the form was the Ballyandy/Movewiththetimes 1-2 in the Betfair Hurdle and it has to be remembered that they were in there on 135 and 136 respectively and there is just that doubt in my mind if they are really 147 and 146 horses now?
I feel obliged to oppose Moon River wherever he goes but I haven’t managed to convince those who feel he can career home in the Champion Hurdle and defy numerous trends. I got a fair bit of gyp for disagreeing with the enthusiasm regarding Moon River in the Champion Hurdle, so, no harm to the horse himself, there may be the old battle retort of “Up your Tom Titter, with a Potato Fritter” later this month to my detractors on the other forum.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
there may be the old battle retort of “Up your Tom Titter, with a Potato Fritter” later this month to my detractors on the other forum.
Lol, Classic. Im in total agreement with your take on Ballyand yand Movewiththetimes
I know several on another forum who think Moon Racer is a damn good bet for the Champion Hurdle but I just don’t see it myself. No Bumper winner has ever gone on to win the Champion Hurdle, and even in a far from vintage season for the race, Moon Racer has to probably find about a stone and a bit. His mark was retrospectively raised to 148 but the only heft whatsoever to the form was the Ballyandy/Movewiththetimes 1-2 in the Betfair Hurdle and it has to be remembered that they were in there on 135 and 136 respectively and there is just that doubt in my mind if they are really 147 and 146 horses now?
I feel obliged to oppose Moon River wherever he goes but I haven’t managed to convince those who feel he can career home in the Champion Hurdle and defy numerous trends. I got a fair bit of gyp for disagreeing with the enthusiasm regarding Moon River in the Champion Hurdle, so, no harm to the horse himself, there may be the old battle retort of “Up your Tom Titter, with a Potato Fritter” later this month to my detractors on the other forum.
Agree 100% I dont think Moon Racer will do anything. Ballyandy is definitely overtared and just not quick enough, I feel.
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