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I have shut myself away from society and immersed myself in this race for the last four hours. At first, I narrowed it down to six:
Champagne Fever, Cheltenian, Jezki, Melodic Rendezvous, My Tent Or Yours and Un Atout
Here’s how I reduced it down to one.
I think the stamina test and 3lb swing will turn around the form between Jezki and Champagne Fever, so that put a line through him. On ratings compared to previous years, My Tent Or Yours will win, but he has a similar running style to fellow Henderson Supreme blowouts Darlan and Binocular. I can’t back a likely bridle horse at that sort of price.
Un Atout is described as ‘a stayer’. This race is usually won by future Champion Hurdle contenders, so he’s in the bin.
Cheltenian is by Astarabad, which suggests he will struggle on the soft ground. He has always avoided soft surfaces in the past, too.
This left me with Champagne Fever and Melodic Rendezvous. I lean away from Champagne Fever as his limitations seem to be have been exposed a little this season. The ground and course will suit, but
Melodic Rendezvous
has shown greater speed in addition to solid stamina.
Good summary that, I’m leaning more towards MR now as well, his form is solid and at 7s represents a bit of value.
Just wanted to give those of you who are backing my tent or yours a little boost. As you know many hot favourites have been turned over in the supreme in recent years like dunguib and cue card etc but as a regards to the timeform rating of those horses my tent or yours is rated way higher! And has been given a rating of 168p with the second highest rating of the race going to jezki who is only 154! That’s miles behind! So with that been said I am going to lump on my tent or yours good luck to those of you who agree
If there’s one contender that will certainly improve for a proper gallop it’s
River Maigue
.
The Nicky Henderon-trained challenger has not had much luck in that department this season – at both Cheltenham and Ascot – but he looks sure to get it here. He has looked far from the finished article and, whilst the more established members of the field have played their cards, he looks the type to keep improving at a rate of knots.
He came with a strong challenge against Dodging Bullets in the Sharp Novices’, but failed to maintain that effort in a race not run to suit. His trainer has stated that he ‘takes an awful lot of work’ and it could just be that he merely blew up on his first run since April.
He appears clever and nimble at his obstacles, has performed well on the track and the conditions will hold no fears. With McCoy bound and tied to his stable companion, there is the added bonus of Barry Geraghty riding the apparent second string.
From the family of Spirit Leader, he is a chaser in the making, but this attractive son of Zagreb has a good chance of giving his trainer further success in this contest.
From the family of Spirit Leader, he is a chaser in the making, but this attractive son of Zagreb has a good chance of giving his trainer further success in this contest.
I hope he’ll be able to jump fences better than Spirit Leader could!
It is so disappointing that we have lost Melodic Rendezvous. My next-best was Champagne Fever, so I guess that is where I stand now. I am not feeling too confident with it since you naturally think of this race going to a Champion Hurdle player of the future. Champagne Fever looks more like a stayer. I hope My Tent Or Yours swings up alongside on the bridle, but can’t get past.
If there’s one contender that will certainly improve for a proper gallop it’s
River Maigue
.
The Nicky Henderon-trained challenger has not had much luck in that department this season – at both Cheltenham and Ascot – but he looks sure to get it here. He has looked far from the finished article and, whilst the more established members of the field have played their cards, he looks the type to keep improving at a rate of knots.
He came with a strong challenge against Dodging Bullets in the Sharp Novices’, but failed to maintain that effort in a race not run to suit. His trainer has stated that he ‘takes an awful lot of work’ and it could just be that he merely blew up on his first run since April.
He appears clever and nimble at his obstacles, has performed well on the track and the conditions will hold no fears. With McCoy bound and tied to his stable companion, there is the added bonus of Barry Geraghty riding the apparent second string.
From the family of Spirit Leader, he is a chaser in the making, but this attractive son of Zagreb has a good chance of giving his trainer further success in this contest.
I might put him in a Henderson bet but can’t have any real money on him. Zagreb has done very little as a jumps sire.
There’s often once exception though
From the family of Spirit Leader, he is a chaser in the making, but this attractive son of Zagreb has a good chance of giving his trainer further success in this contest.
I hope he’ll be able to jump fences better than Spirit Leader could!
Spirit River, TYF?
would anyone be surprised if my tent or yours dots up by five lengths?
i’m on un atout so i’m hoping that he won’t but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he did.
From the family of Spirit Leader, he is a chaser in the making, but this attractive son of Zagreb has a good chance of giving his trainer further success in this contest.
I hope he’ll be able to jump fences better than Spirit Leader could!
Spirit River, TYF?
Oops! I was thinking of the same horse, just muddled the name
There is huge value to be had in this race.
William hill are giving 1st 5 places 1/4 odds. There is 12 runners but 2 of them are 500/1 no hopers, so you’re getting 1st 5 places at 1/4 odds in a 10runner field basically!
I’ve opted for Un Atout i can’t see it being out of the 1st 5 and i think the soft ground and decent pace should play to his strengths.
It wont suprise me if MTOY wins comfortably though but i think the value lies in Un Atout e/w with those terms.
My approach all week will be to oppose the flat-bred horses in favour of NH types as conditions look as though they will be very testing which is likely to make life difficult for the flat types.
Wouldn’t be keen to take a short price about MTOY on very testing ground particularly as all these novices have to carry 11st 7lb which will make stamina even more important.
Un Atout looks the obvious one to go for if you’re inclined to oppose the fav.
Un Atout just won in good style at Navan, jumped well in the main and looked to have any amount in hand. I really think he could be a special horse, 33/1 has hall gone but 25/1 still available with Skybet as I type, doubt it will last too long!
I began this thread with the above quote and it’s a great feeling to select a horse a long ways in advance of a race and have him turn up with a live chance at greatly reduced odds.
I’ve only been following racing for about 7 years now but it’s the best Supreme I can remember.
My Tent Or Yours
sets the standard but I have doubts about him and that hill, not major doubts but enough to put me off him at such a short price when there’s opposition of the highest caliber.
There seems to be massive confidence behind
Jezki
, who has had a great season thus far. He won the Royal Bond despite jumping poorly, before hacking up at Leopardstown. I think AP McCoy may have got it wrong to be honest. A number of people have highlighted his run in the bumper last year as a negative but in hindsight it was a great run for a four year had only run 10 days previously at Leopardstown.
I’m a big fan of
Champagne Fever
. Conditions should suit him now it will be a test of stamina and the way he won the bumper last year lives long in the memory. With the increased test of stamina, I think he has a good chance of reversing form with Jezki.
I keep coming back to my ante-post bet,
UN ATOUT
. From day one I marked him down as a future star and conditions may play to his strengths tomorrow. He’s a strong traveler who looks like he stays very well, a perfect blend that will be necessary tomorrow in what will be a test of stamina as much as anything. I reckon he’ll be even better on good ground but soft won’t bother him while it will slow down the speedsters. If Champagne Fever sets a decent clip to try burn them off I can see Un Atout winning well.
In a festival where the Irish challenge seems to hinge on the performances of Willie Mullins’ horses, I think he could start with a 1-2 tomorrow.
- Total Posts 764
Un Atout looks like a good e/w shout with the ground at around 11/2. I was put off by the fact it hasn’t ran in 2 months but looking back at the past few years Cinders and Ashes won this race last season after not having ran in almost 2 months and Captain Cee Bee won in 2008 after not having run since 17th November.
Oops! I was thinking of the same horse, just muddled the name
It was probably the Michael Buckley connection that confused you, TYF. I knew who you meant
On a similar note, River Maigue does have a touch of the ‘Finian’s Rainbow’ about him. I look forward to seeing him jump a fence under rules.Whatever the outcome of this race, there are probably eight or nine capable of being top class in the future, be it over hurdles or fences. There is also a healthy ‘GB vs Ireland’ feel about it, too.
One of the most anticipated races of the meeting on so many levels and a great way to kick-off the meeting.
the horse’s mouth, this thread should have began and ended with your first quote
looks like we’re backing the same horses tomorrow mate
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