- This topic has 86 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 6 months ago by
.
- Posts
You could be right Mike, I need to go through each year in more detail. It is an odd one but it might something to do with rail positioning, I wouldn’t be surprised if that comes out when I look deeper at it
Presume you’re hammering her in France then?
Struggle to see why she’d have walked this with the likes of Peaceful in here.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The prix de l’opera is 10f
Her form over 8f is much better, her second to palace pier is much better form than anything else in this race has over this trip
Yep and she won over a stiff mile at Ascot, and connections said 10f is her trip.
She didn’t beat Fancy Blue easy in the Diane. I think the Diane on a whole is very very good form this year.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Follow up on the draw stat…..
It could be something to do with the way they position the stalls at Newmarket. Of the last 10, 7 have been in the middle-ish but with a far rail put in, so the ideal position is then on that rail. There is a move towards this when watching the races. Using LY as an example, Veracious missed the break slightly, but then Oisin was very keen to get her onto the rail and into a prominent position, which ultimately cost her the race as she used too much gas getting that position. Had she missed the break slightly from stall 8 or 9, she would have been able to get a better position by gliding down the outside, rather than fighting for the rail. Billesdon Brook had the dream passage, allowed to run against the rail from the break and then getting a gap at just the right time to angle out and sprint. It was the perfect passage and she didn’t use any energy getting into a position early on.
Same, the 2 times the stalls were positioned on the stands side, getting into a nice rail position is important.
So there could be something in it, in terms of positioning. It could be the same sort of draw stat as the Arc. You can win an Arc from a double figure draw, but you need to be very very good to do it. You can win a Sun Chariot from a middle draw, but it’s not ideal on trends and you’ll need to be very good to position well from there it seems.
At the bottom of this post are a list of the last 10 winners and what they did in the race from the break.
There have been 16 horses in the last 11 runnings at odds of 6/1 or lower in the market from middle draws. They are 0/16.
I wouldn’t use this blindly, but it’s worth noting when looking at selections I think.
These are the last 10(can’t find video for 11th)…
1. Stalls Far Side. Ran behind in against the rail all the way until slightly angled out to get a run, got a nice passage.
2. Stalls Stand Side. Broke Well, travelled beautifully, led and moved slowly across to about 1 or 2 off the rail
3. Stalls Stand Side. Broke very well and worked her way over to lead without using too much,
4. Stalls Far Side. Broke and tucked into the pack, they all went on the rail pretty much, steady run
5. Stalls Far Side. Was nicely positioned on the rail throughout
6. Stalls Far Side. Cruised over into the lead from outside draw, won going on the rail.
7. Stalls in middle. Went a good pace and raced up the middle Sky Lantern just dropped in (so did Integral in stall 1)
8. Stalls Far Side. They raced on the far rail, with the 3rd carrying them along and setting the pace, Siyouma just got the perfect light rail ride before angled out to pick up.
9. Stalls Far Side. Very slow early pace from everyone, Saphresa just allowed to pick position midfield
10. Stalls Far Side. Just gently moved over to the rail inside the first 2 furlongs, was travelling really well and angled out to make her runIt looks as though this one could be run in pretty soft conditions as well, looking at the forecast this week.
That would probably rule out Terebellum. I really can’t work out if I rate Peaceful or not, I think she’s probably just good but average. Champers Elysees main target was the Matron and I had the feeling they were almost shocked at winning it. She could easily follow up, but there might be value elsewhere.
Nazeef has won on soft this season, and can excuse the last 2 runs being over 10F, which might actually turn out not to be quiet her trip, despite connections thinking it might be. A stiff mile over 8F could suit.
Cannot ignore Billesdon Brook obviously, weird horse form wise, but best 3 runs at Newmarket, she’ll have a good chance again.
I wonder though, if Veracious is the value here? Kept in training for a reason, won her comeback race after Wind Surgery, afterwards connections mentioned the Matron or here as the possible targets. Grp 1 miler already, 2nd last year and probably should’ve won. Seems to go on any ground, although really heavy ground might be a question mark.
Meets the big trend here which is 10/10 past winners – Achieved a min RPR of at least 114 in a Grp1 8F race. 7/1 could be value here.
It’s a typical open filly race, so the draw might swing it for me. No bet yet
Jeez didn’t spot the weather for here.
The ground softening would further increase Champers Elysees chance i suspect. She has decent form on softer stuff. I would probably say they were hopeful Frenchy, but facing up vs Coolmore you can never be too confident. He did say before + after the race they were optimistic- so not sure i’d say he was shocked lol.
Peaceful is a filly i like as well, and has form on softer. She stays further too so that might help here as well. I think the Diane form could be very strong and she was having a reappearance the last day, so i’d probably have her closer to CE this time. She hasn’t shown yet how good she is, but if i am right about the Diane, i suspect she will do so. She was very good in the Irish Guineas.
Personally speaking i don’t rate Veracious all that highly, shes a good filly, but if the ground softens enough, it’ll be a big concern to me.
Terebellum as you say, ground a concern.
I find Nazeef a hard one to workout, but she’s pretty decent without being tip-top.
Albigna has proved very disappointing so far as a 3yo, but if it does soften up like suggested, she could step forward. Trainer has made to secret that she likes it softer, and her staying on 2nd behind Thundering Nights isn’t bad form given it was off a 76 day break. On that last run you’d find it hard to be confident she’d turn the tables with CE, but it might bring about some improvement – 14s could underestimate her. I’ll wait and see though.
At this stage it’s Peaceful + Albigna.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Not sure about Albigna, that 2yr old form she won is rubbish, no way that was a 112 run if you look at the beaten horses. In that case, she has no form at all to entitle winning this. She was still EvensF off that break on ground she should have enjoyed. Not for me I think her. Peaceful, could be, she’s bred well for this and a stiff 8F on soft, could play to her strengths you could be right. She has that good run at Newmarket last year on Heavy, so it could see improvement I guess. I’m not sure Champers Elysees is going to want really soft ground over a stiff mile, that’s really going to test her stamina, and she doesn’t have loads of it in the breeding profile. So I could possibly see them reversing form there, maybe you’re right.
Does Peaceful want it really soft to be at her best? I’m not too sure. AOB when she ran against Born With Pride said she wasn’t able to use her turn of foot when she wanted and her class got her close. She may be better at 3 to overcome it in this field but something to bear in mind. Champers Elysees has no problem with good ground or soft ground trainer has stated. Its a very difficult race to work out if the going gets soft.
What I would say about Terebellum as well is that I don’t think it was the ground that beat her last time, she didn’t get no cover and didn’t have a target to aim at. This race should be run more to suit as I assume the pace will come from elsewhere. She isn’t out of this by any means.
Tricky race isn’t it!
Could be right about no cover, but JG is quoted as saying Terebellum really enjoys fast ground as well though.
It is pretty poor i know that’s my main concern. Howeever, regardless of going off evens off a break, she ran a very good race against a pretty good filly and being a G1 winner, a G3 isn’t going to be her end goal is it. Her last run was probably more her target, but the ground wouldn’t have been ideal. As i say, im in two minds on her, but if the ground goes bad, i think she’d be worth a bet.
I’m not sure Champers Elysees is going to want really soft ground over a stiff mile, that’s really going to test her stamina, and she doesn’t have loads of it in the breeding profile
I’d say she’ll be fine on soft ground, she’s handle soft heavy and won with ease with a hill at Galway. The thing that sways me to Peaceful is the blatent mid season break.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I don’t think she needs it at all Mike- she should handle it find though as you say.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Terebellum really enjoying fast ground might be true over 10 furlongs I think. Over 8 furlongs it would be more concerning to me and she wouldn’t be on my list to win. When she beat Queen Power she had an ideal set up. I think she needs a bit of ease over a mile like she did at Ascot as she has come back in trip (I backed her at Ascot coz of the bit of ease in the ground and I believe it helped). As with others, its whether she gets too inconvenienced with the big ease predicted for Saturday.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.