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50p or less EW bets: 2 winners (9/2, 10/1), 2 placed, 11 losers.
£1 win bets: 2 winners (6/4, 12/1), 6 losers
£1EW bets: 2 losers
£2 win bets: 2 losers
£1.50EW bets: 1 winner (6/1)
£3 win bets: 1 loser
£2EW bets: 1 placed (8/1)
£4 win bets: n/a
£2.50EW bets: 1 placed (20/1)
£5 win bets: 2 winners, 1 placed (1 winner + 1 placed here were part of the same bet (MTOY + TNO))
50p EW doubles: 4 placed
£1 EW doubles: 1 loser
Forecast bets: 1 winners, 1 loser (1 runs in 10 minutes)
Win lays: 10 winners, 2 losers (Singlefarmpayment, Arsenal at 1.01)
Place lays: 5 winners, 1 loser (Ballyhill)
‘Certainty’: 1 loser
What’s good to see is that I’m choosing my bigger bets correctly. The only single/EW bets I’ve placed totalling £3 or more have all won or placed, bar one.
The lays are ticking along nicely. I missed at least 2 opportunities today with Briar Hill and that 1.07 in the match. Very happy with how they’re going since none (bar the novices) have ever really looked like winning.
The ‘certainty’ was perhaps unlucky with the ground change. Either that or going LH didn’t suit. Not to worry, we’ll get paid from him another day. Patience is all that’s needed.
I deducted £1 extra with my Knock House bet I think, so my balance is £182.19. Hoping for returns now at Wolverhampton.
Wolverhampton 5.15 Cajmere, 50p EW
Wolverhampton 5.45 Equally Fast, 4* bet. £2EW at 20/1 and Illegally Blonde, 3* bet, £1.50EW at 28/1. 50p RFC.
FORECAST. LAST AND SECOND LAST. I’d watch that Equally Fast, he was given a very tentative ride, as was Illegally Blonde. Coming to a winner’s enclosure near you soon.
There were a number that I thought were interesting in this 6.15. City of Angkor Way, Bonjour Steve, Ambitious Boy and Smart DJ.
50p EW each of them (already got Smart DJ from an earlier post)
£177.19
Wow, close! None placed, but the lay wins. £179.12.
Again I’ve backed a number of runners + returned a loss on the race. Just like the last at Cheltenham yesterday. Something to watch out for in the future.
Carlisle 1.35
Danimix. Doesn’t like soft ground. He’s 11. He’s rated over 1 1/2 stone behind others on the RPRs. He’s shown nothing recently. Can’t consider.
Saroque. Interesting. Venetia qualifier. Oct-Dec: 3 wins, 4 places from 14 runs. Won a year ago off this mark on similar ground at Exeter. Will enjoy the ground. Slight concern about the trip. Probably needs to win this to qualify for the Welsh Grand National. Ignore his runs in Class 1/2 events as he’s simply not good enough to win them.
Ballyben. Very short I think. He’s struggled running off 117 or higher (FP84352). Trainer has a decent record in handicaps at the track but 11/4-3/1 is short enough. Can pass over.
Cyclop. ?s about the track as he’s run poorly on undulations a few times. Still paying the price for winning by a mile off 115. Still rated 123 and I think he’s got no chance. I’ll be laying him.
Carli King. Ignore his last run. He’ll love the cut in the ground. That win at Warwick looks like it was a bit of a fluke though and as a result he’s running off 123 when he’s probably more like 110. Can avoid. Interestingly though, he likes to lead, as does Saroque. Perhaps Saroque will sulk.
Fill The Power. Was off the track for 1 1/2 years. Done nothing since re-emerging. Is down to his career low handicap mark though. Beaten 54L and 57L the only times Danny Cook rode. 2nd in a very similar contest to this 2 years ago off 128, now 122. 72210 at Carlisle. Actually managed to finish ahead of Dynaste LTO. Extra 4f will help him a lot + takes a step down in class. Only beaten 21L LTO, compared to over 50L the two times before. Has claims.
Scotswell. Struggles on soft. 00F4315P42227P3. 1/15. 6 top 3 finishes. Which means he’s 8/41 on quicker than soft with 12 top 3 finishes. Looks to be regressing.
Sharney Sike. Has won off a break before but realistically after nearly 2 years off the track, in these conditions, he’ll struggle at a time when he needs a career best to win.
West of The Edge. Seems to win almost immediately whenever he goes rated 101 or less. Rated 115. Well beaten on all starts when rated 102+. Ownership has changed recently. Beat a load of rubbish LTO. 2nd, 4th + 5th have done nothing to frank the form. The 3rd is now rated 106 after 2 wins. WotE 56P64 in Class 3 company. Only 8yo and won easily LTO. But 2/1 is a freaking joke. Must lay at 2/1.
Basford Ben. 5/6 career wins came at Carlisle. 423211145113 course form. As reliable at Carlisle as the day is long. Only not completed on 7/44 starts. Career high mark. Has run at Carlisle in similar conditions before + failed. Streets behind Ballyben at the weights.
Who has claims? Saroque, Ballyben, Fill The Power. Unless they’ve been playing around with West of the Edge, he’s never in a million years a 2/1 shot. More like a 25/1 or even 50/1 shot.
Ballyben can be ignored at his price given his previous struggles with this handicap mark.
Nowhere.
£180.12
Sennockian connections won’t have to wait long for compensation I hope.
50p EW 7/1 Sennockian Song W 7.45
I’ve laid West of the Edge at 3.0 to win £3. £1.50EW Saroque Carlisle 1.35 13/2. £177.12.
Gonna take a little break + go for a walk.
W 8.15 Saxo Jack, 25p EW 50/1
W 8.45 Life of Luxury, Waggle, Irvine Lady, 50p EW each
£173.62
Have to rely on the stats here a bit as there’s very little form to suggest anything. Carlisle 12.30 Freddy’s Portrait, £2.50 win 4/1.
£171.12
Carlisle 2.10
Call The Cops. Not really sure whether to take them seriously or not. I’m fairly sure he’s here to get his handicap mark down. Turned into a bit of a monkey it seems as well.
Gevrey Chambertain. EDIT – WTF am I doing talking about Gevrey C and Cheltenham for??? This is probably a bit too competitive for him. 1119 on seasonal reappearances. Has a shout, definitely.
Shades of Midnight. Yeah he looks half-decent. Has won LH, RH, on flat tracks, on undulating tracks, the whole she-bang. Loves soft ground. Back into a handicap after running in the Long Distance Hurdle (where he had no chance). Just got beaten by Silso in April. Has previously won at the track. Ignore his seasonal debuts. He’s 3006 off 120+ day breaks. All his career wins have come in the second half of the season though. Should be fine with the trip. Trainer’s 1/33 at the track :/
Knockara Beau. The most likeable horse in training? He’ll love the ground, he’ll stay the trip, he’s won at Carlisle. He is back down to a winning mark, but how is he off a long break? Fine! Sometimes…1P1P0P10. Since winning very early in his career, all his winning’s been done in single-figure fields, which he gets here. Asking a lot of a 13yo though, soon to be 14.
One For Harry. I’m going to take a bit of a closer view at this one because the trainer has a very strong trainer at the track. He’s not run for 8 months. He’s 26311 off a 120+ day break. The last two years he’s won a handicap hurdle at Carlisle on his seasonal debut. Here he is, set up to do the same and he’s 6/1. Why so big? Does the market have stamina doubts? They shouldn’t, he finished 1L 2nd to Woodford County over 3m, and he’s a dour stayer. Definitely doubts about his ability. He ran to about 135 at Wetherby I think, given the proximity and quality of the runner-up. He’s running off 138 today. But let’s have a look.
November 2014, he runs off 121 at Carlisle in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f on soft ground. He bolts up and goes up 12lbs for it.
November 2015, he runs off 129 at Carlisle in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f on good-soft and goes up 6lbs for it.
What about end of year comparisons? April 2014, 121. April 2015, 129. April 2016, 138.
So we can expect him to run a bit better than his mark based on that, as well as possible improvement about the addditional distance. I think improvement is likely. But how much? Looking closer at that race last year at Carlisle, he only beat Shotavodka 1/2L, who himself is only about a 130-rated horse at the moment. If he ran to 131 at Wetherby as well, like I think he did, then he’s a proven 131-rated horse running off 138. 6/1 doesn’t seem like great value now. It’s all a question of improvement for the extra 4f. He’s definitely one to consider but he doesn’t leap off the page.
Milborough. What a boat. No chance.
Sevenballs Of Fire. Another big old boat.
Island Heights. Has this horse got something wrong with him? He won off 120 + then 125 first two runs last year, then ran a shocker in this race off 130. I remember it vividly because Nicky Richards had Isaactowns Lad absolutely laid out to win the race and he fell. Then everything else fell apart and that big old boat Pineau De Re won. They brought him back in January for another crack. He ran another pretty poor race. They put him away for the year then and there, so he’s had 10 months of R+R, he’s come back and he’s finished 4th beaten 10L and 6th beaten 17L. Could maybe be that he doesn’t like it soft. Anyway, as a result of his downward spiral and Shades of Midnight’s upward curve, Shades of Midnight is now rated 20lbs higher than Island Heights, having been rated 1lb below him 13 months ago. To me that makes Shades of Midnight’s chances of victory look very suspicious. Up 1 1/2 stone in a year? Hmmmm.
Anyway Island Heights is back down to his last winning mark (although he had a 5lb claimer on his back that day). The trip is within range but there are question marks over his well-being and the ground.
Very First Time – honestly could be anything.
Jennys Day – doesn’t look like it but who knows, only a few runs under his belt
This race is made all the more trickier by the fact that it’s a Pertemps Qualifier.
Anyway, nothing leaps off the page unfortunately, after all that effort. I think that I’ll let history do its thing and repeat itself hopefully. I’ll have £1EW on One For Harry for the Carlisle seasonal reappearance hat-trick, and £1 on Gevrey C, although I think he’s probably a bit high up the handicap.
Gonna take a little break + go for a walk.
W 8.15 Saxo Jack, 25p EW 50/1
W 8.45 Life of Luxury, Waggle, Irvine Lady, 50p EW each
£173.62
Nothing going on here but I backed Life Of Luxury and Waggle at far bigger prices than they went off at. That’s a positive :)
Carlisle 12.30
Fieldsofsilk gets a 4yo allowance.
I think the bottom 3 have got absolutely no chance.
Alchimix has never finished in the top 4 on soft/heavy ground. 5U79057P.
Red Story has never once shown anything yet he’s 7/1. Back down to 2m after running over 2m 6f 2 starts ago. He’s raced on soft/heavy 4 times and been beaten 49L, 38L, 34L and 25L, but that could be game-playing. His trainer doesn’t have a particularly good record at Carlisle. 7/1 looks a rancid price.
Storm Alert hasn’t won a race in nearly 3 years, and that was a handicap hurdle over 3m at Exeter on soft ground. His win before that (13 months earlier) was a handicap hurdle over 3m at Exeter on heavy ground. And his win before that was over 2m 5f at Fontwell on good to soft. Yet here he is in a 2m chase. He’s not run over 2m in over 4 years, when he finished 3rd of 15, beaten 9L. On soft ground. He ran over 2m 2f at Exeter 1 1/2 years ago and he finished 6th, beaten 29L. His record over fences reads PP6 (of 6, beaten 58L). He’s a no-hoper but the bookies make him 13/2. Nonsense.
Tambour Major. Another bad looking horse. 3 starts over fences, 19L 4th (of 5), 36L 5th (of 12) and 47L 7th (of 9). This race looks atrocious. I’m hoping something comes along and blows me away with its profile.
Fieldsofsilk. 4yo allowance which makes things a bit easier. His form is shocking. Beaten 71L, beaten 48L, beaten 27L, beaten 12L, beaten 46L and beaten 36L. He’s beaten 15 of the 66 horses he’s run against. Rated 96 and 2 runs under his belt this year. Jenny Candlish has a ridiculously good record in handicap chases at Carlisle and this could be another winner. He’s completely unexposed and could be absolutely anything.
My Escapade. Looks the pits.
Halcyon Days. Comes here with a penalty for winning the other day. Looks a pretty awful horse. Still waiting for something to wow me.
The Black Robin. Beaten 23L, beaten 98L, beaten 82L, beaten 42L, beaten 39L and pulled up. Who the hell knows?
Freddie’s Portrait. Considered good enough to run in a Class 3 Novice Hurdle last year, in which the four in front of him are currently rated 137, 123, 116 and 126. In fact only 1 horse in that race is not currently rated 110 or higher, and he was in 6th, beaten 15L by FP. Finished behind Virnon twice in novice hurdles a year ago. Virnon was given a rating of 120 for those wins, off which he hasn’t yet won. McCain has a very good record with novice handicap chasers at Carlisle, and he has a very good record with handicap chasers in December coming off a long break.
Interestingly McCain + Kennedy have a dreadful record this year with chasers. Their hurdlers are winning at a rate of 25% but the chasers are only at 9%. Sheesh, McCain’s form is shocking. He’s not had a chaser even come close to winning in the past two weeks. Something to look out for. Knock House was well backed today I believe but he was pulled up.
This is a really bad race.
If Freddie’s Portrait is anywhere as good as I think he might be (110-125), he should be winning this race.
Fieldsofsilk is a must-back at a huge price given Candlish’s record in the race, plus the 4yo allowance.
Carlisle 3.15, have to lay Hermanus if he’s anything like 4.0. He beat **** LTO and he carries a penalty here.
Carlisle 2.40
Captain Redbeard doesn’t seem to have taken to fences. He should be performing way better than he has done.
Minellacelebration looks completely exposed at the trip + too high up the weights.
Tanarpino is a Jenny Candlish system qualifier coming off a long break. He ran in the same novice hurdle as Freddie’s Portrait. Could be a nice related double ;) Has run well both times when returning off a long absence and has definite claims
Palm Grey needs a career best. He seems capable but others might be more progressive.
Fionn Mac Cul has extremely good form. Both runs coming off a long absence have been disappointing though, which would tie in with Venetia’s usual MO.
Lake View Lad is unexposed over the trip over fences and he looks very capable of running to 140+ or better. His form looks very solid and he should be capable of putting together a big run here.
Hawkhurst is a bad horse.
Revocation is interesting. There might be something there.
Urban Hymn. I don’t think he’s fast enough or low enough in the weights to do anything here. But 1st time cheekpieces!
Lake View Lad is a definite back at 7/2, £2.
Small bet on Revocation at 9/2, £1.
Small bet on Tanarpino, 50p EW at 12/1Tanarpino + Fieldsofsilk, 50p EW Jenny Candlish handicap chase double.
£161.12
p.s. Djakadam’s price is way too good I feel. He could’ve been 4/6 and I wouldn’t have blinked, although I wouldn’t have backed either.
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