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Bit better yesterday though it got close with Argento in the end, not sure she’s sees out 2m3f so maybe a drop in trip will be best. Good racing today so here are the picks:
Hohlethelonely (1.45 Kemp)
didn’t seem to get 2m4f last time after cruising up to the pace 3 out but finding next to nothing, so coming back to this distance will suit, as will returning to novice company for the still in form Venetia Willaims yard. While there is an interesting newcomer, its best to side with proven experience and this one has it.
Sherrif Hutton (2.55 Donc)
really seems to appreciate good or faster ground and is a course and distance winner. Not disgraced running on softer, he has come down the handicap for those last 2 defeats so is well weighted to take advantage of everything being in his favour.
Starzan (3.10 Newb)
was a more than decent hurdler in his younger days and proved to be near the best novice chasers at this kind of trip last year. Didn’t get the 3m at either Festival which explained his defeats but has been let in here off a nice weight and these kind of handicaps often go to 2nd season horses with good form in grade races. While I respect the Pipe horse’s potential, proven form is a bigger thing for me and this one has it.
Ungaro (3.25 Donc)
has good course form and doesn’t mind decent or fast ground. Its been a long time since he won, but he has run consistently well since. Can be excused a poor run last week and the fact they are willing to bring him out so quickly augurs well.
Blues In Cee (4.20 Newb)
is an interesting runner on her handicap debut for a shrewd yard. Pitched in against some of the best or most promising juveniles this year, it was no surprise she couldn’t quite hold her own, that said she ran a cracker last time against Stow. Not badly treated as a result, its possible this season’s juveniles are some of the better novices anyway and she can follow the likes of Trenchant, Silk Affair and Ronald des Motte in taking on and beating the older horses.
Forgot to put my tip up yesterday which was Present M’Lord, but it lost anyway so no worries.
Fassaroe (2.30 Font)
will appreciate the rain softened ground and the step up in trip. A bumper winner, he was a bit disappointing last time at Hereford, but the yard are still doing well and his previous form reads well enough to suggest he can win this.
High Bird Humphrey (3.20 Catt)
has just about the best chase form of this lot, despite no wins in 7 attempts over fences. Good enough effort last time over course and distance, and rates the best bet at the prices.
Not the most inspiring day’s racing so I will just put up the two horses again:
Babe Heffron (3.25 Ling)
was well backed and travelled like a dream on his debut for the yard last time. However the yard were troubled by the weather and a lot of theirs weren’t as fit asthey could be. They are in the winners now though and this drop in trip should also suit, so though not the biggest price, he looks the one in a weakish looking affair.
Laustra Bad (3.55 Ling)
has become a bit of a talking horse and slighty disappointing since his 3rd in the Fred Winter 2 years ago. Though he’s only won once since then, he often runs a good enough race. His effort last time, was most encouraging when just denied on the line and though the winner was well beaten at the weekend, this Pipe horse still has plenty to offer and can go in again at long last. Ground shouldn’t be a problem and the trip may be ideal.
Bit better yesterday and the winner was much bigger early doors than SP so wasa bit of value. Anyway for today:
Sirkeel (2.20 Ayr)
was given a terrible ride by a decent enough claimer last time, when way out the back and not asked until too late. Goes on the ground and gets the trip well, so hopefully can finally score today.
Seconditis (3.10 Winc)
did not stay 2m4f last time, but bits and pieces of nice form in novices before that. Low weight and plenty of question marks about the rest in a bad looking race. Worth a punt at the prices.
Agglestone Rock (3.30 Ayr)
seemingly in the form of his young life of late with 2 good hurdle runs sandwitching an all weather win. Not beaten far last week and would probably have been closer but for a dodgy jump at the last. If he’s over that, can surely make amends as he was well backed to win then.
Don’t Tell the Wife (3.55 Sand)
disappointed a little last time in that he could get the better of two big priced horses, but this track should suit more than Musselburgh and a bit more cut won’t harm either. Seems an out and out stayer and is on a low mark considering the novice company he was keeping earlier in the season.
Tempting Paradise (4.15 Leic)
won’t be inconvenienced by better ground having won on fast ground in the autumn. But his run on soft overcourse and distance last time wasn’t a bad effort. This doesn’t look as hot and down a lb with another 3lb claimed off gives him more than a chance.
Balakar (4.40 Ayr)
is back over hurdles after falling over fences last time and just going down in that sphere the time before that. Obviously still in good heart dispite his age and though high in the weights, did run a good hurdle race in the autumn.
Couple of interesting races and rides yesterday, but no point dwelling, it was still profitable. For today:
Quartz de Thaix (2.05 Sand)
has been campaigned over shorter since he came to England, but does have form in France over 2m3f so hopefully 2m4f up the hill won’t be a problem. Yard still firing and has to have a chance in an open looking handicap.
Bonus (2.20 Wolv)
is a tricky ride and very expensive to follow as he has to be produced on the line. He gets this trip, but not the 1m he’s been trying of late, and of those who are fit is about the best in at the weights.
Stagecoach Opal (2.35 Sand)
won a race at Doncaster before Xmas in similar conditions, then ran OK in heavy ground against some well thought of novices. Yard has had winners this week and still lower mark than over hurdles.
Prince Taime (3.10 Sand)
won bumpers and novices races so is a decent horse. Stayed on strongly to get 3rd in Gerry Fielden in November. Was disappointing last time at Ascot, but seems to go best when fresh and there was only a month between those 2 runs. He’s had 11 weeks off now and while he may need further, this hill should suit better than flat Newbury and he’s worth a go each way.
Another Rum (5.05 Ayr)
has not won since winning the 4 miler at Cheltenham many moons ago, indeed that is his only ever chase win. He does however often run well in long distance chases that are of better quality than this. While there are a few potential imporvers in this race who may be better for the trip, he is solid enough and at the prices, rates the value bet.
Really don’t know why I bother trying on Saturdays because its been a long time since I had a good one. Anyway, lets try and boost the Festival armoury with these:
Creagh Bay (2.00 Plum)
is an ex irish pointer who made an eyecatching debut for this yard at Chepstow last month. What the form of that race amounts to is debateable, but, providing he doesn’t bounce, a repeat of that can see him go close in this race.
College Ace (3.40 Strat)
won well on similar ground to this twice in November. Though disappointing next time on similar ground at Ludlow and up 15lb in total for those 2 wins, has won off 2lb lower in the past so not that big a hike. Jumps and stays strongly and can race handy which is important round here.
Pascha Bere (4.10 Strat)
ran very well in its last 2 races and the form of them reads quite good. Not sure why its not been out in such a while, but if there are no real problems, then even off top weight has to have a chance in this.
Thought Pasha Bere was going to land a monster gamble between the last 2 yesterday but least College Ace won his race. Right not bothering with Southwell or Sedgefield today so here goes:
Michael Flips (1.30 Chelt)
has run in races that seem to be holding up quite well with at least 1 next time out winner behind him in every race he’s run in. He’s an ex pointer, so the hill shouldn’t pose any dangers, though he has also showed he’s got plenty of speed with that win at Kempton last time. Tactics were blamed for his sole defeat time before last and held up today, he can pick them off to score close home.
Tatenen (2.05 Chelt)
obviously has question marks about him with regards to him only really running in small field races and the fact he failed to win last time getting 11lb. However in his race last time, Thomas didn’t make enough use of him and he was outsprinted. The fact Walsh has chosen him over 2 others suggests he’s confident about him. He’s also a course and distance winner, and while that form hasn’t held up well, his jumping that day was faultless and the time not bad for the conditions. Huge chance and my nap of the day.
Wichita Lineman (2.40 Chelt)
had great form over novice hurdles winning here 2 years ago in the 3 miler. The fact he failed to win for 18 months was a worry and he often ran liefelessly last season. Not the most straight forward of rides and has not convinced in his 3 chase runs so far, but, for that he has ben given a much lower mark and has a result is very well handicapped. The fact his trainer is sweet on his chances adds to the confidence I have in him and he can win today.
Osana (3.20 Chelt)
is a tough horse, who despite being 7 is still improving over hurdles. A very good comeback run last time, failing to give 4lb to Celestial Halo at Sandown when not given the strongest of rides. While that form in itself is clearly not good enough, he has often improved again for a run. Also his best form remains in this race last season and history shows this is a race where beaten horses can come back to win.
A New Story (4.00 Chelt)
gets into this race bang on 10st and was 3rd in it last year. He has run some creditable races in the mean time in regular chases and has always been a bit well thought of. Weighted to beat Garde Champetre based on last year’s form, though not likely to be any better, can give a good run for the money for a very shrewd trainer who knows how to win here.
United (4.40 Chelt)
is one of 3 class horses in the race, but in my view has the best overall form. Has been almost entirely campaigned against the males and has decent form against the best of them winning a grade 1 and grade 2 against the geldings before injury 2 years ago. Her comeback win showed she still retains plenty of ability and though she was less impressive last time, 3m probably stretches her a bit but this is her distance. Won’t mind rain, but will go on good to soft anyway. Next best of the day.
A winner a placed ew horse and a well stuffed 2nd but all in all not a bad day. Anyway another day another dollar so here are today’s Cheltenham picks:
Kornati Kid (1.30 Chelt)
a decent enough staying hurdler last year who seems to have improved again over fences. A grade 2 winer last time when beating 2 good northern horses staying on dourly. His run 3 races back now reads even better as he wasn’t far behind Wichita Lineman and Big Fella Thanks. Not guaranteed to get this trip, but has shaped as if he needed further in his chases to date, so looks a solid enough bet in a tricky race. I respect Jonjo’s record in the race, but feel Carnival Town may be the better bet of his pair. Last year’s winning connections can’t be ruled out either with a tricky, but dour horse who was once very classy in Pangebourne.
Mad Max (2.05 Chelt)
is almost the forgotten horse of the race, but there is plenty to like about this unbeaten son of Kayf Tara. Given a couple of educational rides over hurdles so far, but still won both with good authority. Has no ground worries and should really relish this step up in trip and stronger pace. The from of his races reads well and its hard to see him out of the first three.
Cooldine (2.40 Chelt)
has done well being so competitive in his chasing career to date over much shorter trips than this as he looked like a stayer as a hurdler. That will have done his jumping the power of good, but as last time showed, the extra distance will bring further improvement. The form of that last win was also well and truly franked yesterday, and he comes from a yard that has a good record in the race with 2 wins in last decade.
Ambobo (4.00 Chelt)
won over course and distance as a novice a few years ago and has often run well round here inc last year in the Jewson. Shown a return to that kind of form the last 2 runs after not really taking to chasing. Very well treated on his best form and has a great racing weight with 3lb more to come off from his good pilot’s claim. Will be hard to keep out of the frame and rates a good ew betting proposition.
Brusilini (4.40 Chelt)
was sent off favourite in each of his 3 hurdle races but to be fair has run into some very decent horses each time. Each race has seen plenty of win and placed horses come out of them, so for him to get into this off bottom weight is a massive bonus for his shrewd trainer. While I’m not saying it wasa plot, if it was it worked well. The fact Richard Johnson is doing 10st is also a hint to his chances, so again this horse rates a very solid looking ew bet.
Lead the Parade (5.15 Chelt)
was well thought of by his trainer and jockey, enough so for them to suggest it could be the best of their bumper horses not too long ago. Its hard to really assess Irish bumper form because a lot of the beaten horses don’t come out and run, but this fella was a well backed favourite for a big race over Xmas, but was found to be not right. He then won comfortably next time in a manner that suggested he was decent. While not bombproof, he could be a good each way go at very big prices while other look at the favourites, but this is a race that often goes to 2nd and 3rd string horses, so its wouldn’t be the biggest shock ever.
All bar Bruslini goave us a run for our money on Wednesday, was in hospital yesterday but Big Buck’s apart wouldn’t have picked any other winners, though 2 of Ferdy’s ran ok, though Three Mirrors couldn’t possibly win giving good horses 40 lengths+ head starts. Anyway today:
Ebadiyan (1.30 Chelt)
will be better on decent ground, with a fast pace and on a stiffer track if the trainer is to be believed. Oliver Brady has done well at the Festival before, so I will go along with him. Has form to reverse with 2 of the Irish, but with conditions in his favour, he can and Irish novices have done well so far this week.
Kandari (2.05 Chelt)
was a winner on good ground on the flat in France who has been on the premises in each of his 3 hurdle starts to date. They have all been on soft, so the hope is he’ll improve yet for drier going. The last of his runs wasa very competitive handicap at Leopardstown where he was smashed into favoutism and wasn’t far behind some more experienced rivals. Should come on again for that and his trainer has done well in this and has ben more selective with what he’s sent over. Must have definite ew chances.
Pride of Dulcote (2.40 Chelt)
is a little unlucky not to still be unbeaten over hurdles as he was travelling well round here in November when he fell 2 out against 2 horses considered god enough to run in the World Hurdle. Showed no ill effects of that fall by dotting up next time off 7lb higher on Boxing Day. Ground is no problem and has been well tipped for this race by connections for a long time. For a bigger priced horse to maybe run into a place,
Bally Sands
looks a stayer who will appreciate better ground and a stiff test.
Star de Mohaison (3.20 Chelt)
gets his ground over fences for the first time since his 2 huge novice wins. He’s almost a 2nd season chaser due to his inactivity and while he may not be the force of old, the fact they have kept him in training and are running him in this suggests he may have shown them something. Plenty of negatives about the other 3 Nicholls horses in terms of trends and in my view the level of their form since this race last year, and I also have big doubts about Barber’s Shop, Air Force One and Albertas Run. So while any of them could still win, he looks worth an ew saver as his odds are still fair so stakes can be low. Also in the back of my mind is a niggling thought for
Roll Along
no pace and very soft ground are fair excuses for his last 2 runs, but he beat AFO fair and square 1st time out and was staying on from a long way out in the RSA last year to suggest a better ride and this trip could well see him overturn form with Albertas, so he is also worth a little ew bet.
Royal Auclair (4.00 Chelt)
is from a yard who has won this twice in recent years with former high class chasers, so this ex Grand National and Gold Cup placed horse fits the bill perfectly. His placed run in the "Whitbread" last spring suggests he’s still got plenty left and this course and distance will suit more than what he’s faced in his 2 hunter chases this season. WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE FIRST THREE!
Big Eared Fran (4.40 Chelt)
has ground, trip and best of the stable’s jockeys to suggest he’s the one with whom they have highest hopes in a race they’ll be desperate to win. Won with bit in hand on Saturday in a race that could be better than this due to fact many of them were unexposed. He’s by no means a penalty kick, but could well turn out to be a huge improver now in handicaps.
Lorient Express (5.15 Chelt)
is a horse that just seems to jump and win this season. While he’s up in the handicap, he’s still got no weight for a yard bang in form who have won this race before.
Silvio (2.20 Fake)
is a course and distance winner who won here earlier this season. Very good claimer on board and big chance in right after his fall last time.
Ocean Du Moulin (3.35 Fake)
is another with good course form and ran well for a long way here 2 runs ago against better horses than this over further. Hopefully this drop back in distance will suit him better.
Picky (4.55 Fake)
may not be suited by this track as his win was at Towcester, but trainer does well here and if fit from a break, must have a big chance.
As soon as Ebadiyan ran out in the opener I knew yesterday wasn’t going to be mine, though I did back Baby Run ew to mark the birth of our first child on Thurs, but apart from that, Wichita, Cooldine and Big Buck’s it wasn’t my greatest ever festival. Anyway, only really fancy 2 today and Saturday’s haven’t been too kind recently either, but here goes:
Sacrilege (1.50 Weth)
will appreciate a return to good ground having run some good races on it so far this season. The form of his last race at Bangor looks good and could end up quite a hot little race and the yard seem to be back amongst the winners. I respect Alan King and think his horse has decent form, but is worth taking on with this one.
Ardesia (2.45 Newc)
ran a very good race to be second over course and distance last time. Has gone up 2lb for being beat less than 3l in that, but was over 8l clear ofthe third. Better ground should also suit and while this race looks tougher, the rider takes 7lb off and it has no weight. Definite ew chance.
Had a couple of days off so lets hope we can get back to form today:
Sirkeel (2.20 Kels)
is worth another go after falling at the 1st last time. Runs as if this trip is well within its compass and good jock on again after being badly ridden the time before last.
Simplification (2.30 Ling)
is the only runner from the in form Hannon team who had a nice maiden winner here on Wednesday. Its 3 races are working out well and yard does well with AW horses in March getting them ready for the turf.
Mr Gardner (2.40 Newb)
is an ex pointer who has been very highly tried so far. This is a massive drop down in class and though seemingly the second string, the McCoy/Henderson combination has a great record round here, has to have a place chance at least.
Hooky’s Hope (3.25 Kels)
got closer to Little Schilling than any other horse during that one’s winning run in early winter. 4lb is no stiff mark considering. Off for a while so fitness is taken on trust, but trip should suit and goes well on fast ground.
Darstardly Dick (3.50 Newb)
should not be too inconvenienced by better ground and a step up in trip. The fact he started in handicaps while the yard was struggling masks the fact he’s not on a bad mark and even top weight may not stop him in a poorish looking race.
Royal Amnesty (4.15 Ling)
comes from a yard that don’t often miss when sending them all that way, especially when its just the one. The horse is still in form and off a amrk it won off in autumn. Good jock booked too so if it gets the breaks, will be hard to stop.
Much better day yesterday, 3 winners and 3 seconds, lets hope my luck has changed for the better. Saturdays haven’t been kind in recent weeks but here goes for another crack:
Matsunosuke (2.05 Ling)
is in the form of his life winning a listed race over 6f here the run before last. Wasn’t disgraced in a handicap last time out, but his best form is over this course and distance so must go very close today.
Antonius Caesar (2.20 Newb)
has got a lot of ticks in the right boxes today. The ground should be ideal as is the trip. The form of his last run looks very solid and gets in here off a low weight.
Stoop to Conquer (2.40 Hayd)
was running in sl;ighty better company than this last season and put up some good efforts. Obviously had some kind of problem, but if 100% fit, has to be a decent e/w bet. My only concern would be if this is not just another race to sharpen him up after a recent all weather run, but if right, then can go well.
Aimigayle and Katess (2.50 Newb)
both can feature in a competitive mares race and provide decent e/w value against horses that may want more cut. To me Aimigayle has been saved for this after winning her 3rd chase which qualified her for this. Her subsequent hurdle runs have showed she’s in good heart and can overturn form with Shataabi though has a bit to find with Rate of Knots from the same race. HJowever both of them probably want it much softer. Katess also has form on faster surfaces than she’s been running on this winter so might well get in the frame. Ping Pong Sivola is the obvious choice, but Cheltenham wadn’t long ago, the yard haven’t won since and again all her winning form is on soft or heavy.
Cantabilly (2.55 Strat)
is by far the best in at the weights and takes a huge drop in grade from where its been running. While sellers are notorious for upsets, this one had a recent spin on the flat that should have it right and hopefully the class to overcome any concerns regarding the trip.
It’s Crucial (4.40 Newb)
gets the nod again after some promising runs recently while the yard has been out of sorts. This is not as good as some of the races he’s been in and if it jumps better than last time over this course and distance, can go close here.
Abbondanza (4.50 Ling)
runs for a trainer/jockey combination that do well round here (75% strike rate) and the trainer doesn’t send horses this far for nothing as he proved yesterday. Decent enough draw and can hopefully ride them to sleep. Back in trip but that shouldn’t be a worry as was running out of steam last time, but the runner up that day won well next time so must have e/w chances despite a rise in the weights.
It’s been a while but my main form source was away on his annual spring hols so didn’t fancy going it alone. Anyway:
Fathom Five (2.30 Eps)
got bits and pieces of good form form previous seasons and goes well with cut so this softer ground should suit. Probably not a win proposition but can get a place if fully wound up and the trainer can get them ready.
Dream Desert (3.05 Eps)
is very much the unexposed horse in the bunch and the trainer has started the season well enough. Whether he has the ability for this is debateable and he is short enough in the betting, but apart from Record Breaker, I don’t really like the look of many of them, so will give him the benefit.
Midday (3.40 Eps)
showed some decent form in her races last year and has the best form to date of these. The yard have started well enough without having the winners but she is well bred (slight concerns whether the sire will get horses to go this far) so if she is a genuine Oaks filly she has to do the business today.
Ramona Chase (4.15 Eps)
has always been a horse who I have like a lot from his 2 year old days. He was almost group class then so running in handicaps off the mid 90s is not where it looked he was heading. Not an easy ride, but he has run well here before and had a nice sharpener recently on the all weather. Not best drawn, but can give an each way run for our money, so gets the nod.
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