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That was much more like it yesterday. One or two were well backed into short priced favs, but still won well and the Murphy horse ended up much bigger than I expected.
Super Lord (1.40 Warw) has won at the course on soft ground before off this very mark and course form round here is a good thing in my view. Not been in the best of form since but well fancied last time out and given time to recover so has to have a little Ew squeak today.
Mongorno (2.10 Warw) with the likely favourite a notorious "dodgy pot" and Ferdy’s horses in much better form now, its worth siding with this horse to overturn the form with a 2lb pull, on ground that should suit.
Squirtle (2.00 Wolv) Best AW runs have been here and has good form behind Zuwaar at the track. Slightly disappointing last time at Kempton, but can do better back where she runs best.
Daraiym (3.30 Wolv) similar form lines to Squirtle and has top jock up this time. Course and distance suit so can hopefully open its account today off a tastey mark and weight.With the ground being so bad and a lot of very short priced things don’t really fancy much today.
Pin Pong Sivola (1.30 Chel) has been running well in smaller novice chases without actually winning. However she has a low weight and a good jockey claiming a vital 3lb off which has to give her a big chance to score a 2nd win over fences.
Walkon (3.10 Chel) not a lot you can say about him. The form of his 3 runs over hurdles is working out very well. The trainer does well with juvenile hurdlers and his best ones invariably run in this race. Very hard to oppose even with his penalty and odds against is a massive price for him.
Flying Enterprise (3.25 Donc) has decent chase form including a good 3rd off this mark 2 runs ago at Wetherby. That was for Evan Williams, but his best form was for this trainer. Track should suit and goes on soft ground and worth a small bet for a stable that is still getting winners.Potts of Magic (2.55 Ludl)
has not won for a long time, but his last 2 runs have been very encouraging and shows he still retains plenty of ability. For a race like this, he has one of the best jockeys aboard and the stable does well around here with its chasers so has to have a big chance.
Farmer’s Lad (3.15 Kemp)
is back to the trip that he won his race over and is creeping down the weights after not seeming to get home in recent starts. Yard in are better from now and this tighter type of track seems to suit him.
Idris (3.50 Kemp)
back down to a winning mark after 2 comeback runs since his long absence. His last run showed signs that he is getting back the form of 2 years ago and he’s had plenty of rest to ensure bounce shouldn’t be a factor.
Bluebell Ridge (5.40 Wolv)
has been runnign some big races recently despite the fact he’s not been winning and if you look at his proximity, he’s not losing by far. Suprisingly given that, he is still going down the handicap which gives him a big chance here against a favourite who seemd to improve for going further than this.
Been a while but been waiting for some slightly better racing.
Pearl (12.40 Kemp)
good winner at Chepstow the time before last where the 1st 2 pulled well clear. Though they have both been beaten next time (Pearl off 1lb lower), she still looks in good heart and is worth another go here.
Pancakes (1.10 Kemp)
has not seemed to be getting home over 3m in his previous novice chases this season so this drop in trip may be ideal. He has also run into one or two very decent types and this looks a lot easier, especially with the defections, though I believe he’d have won anyway.
Cromwell Court (1.30 Ayr)
has placed in 4 of his 5 races over fences and there was a lot to be liked about his last two efforts over shorter and longer than this. The yard are still in form and can overcome his penalty in this race.
Twelve Paces (3.10 Ayr)
was running well in November winning and coming second over further. He’s not quite been the same since, but that was in class 2 races and this is back in class 4 (his November win was class 3). There are obviousy some interesting types near the bottom of the weights so he rates an EW bet rather than win only and has a good in form amateur on board.
Twelve Paces ran like he has been running recently but was very disappointed in Cromwell Court who was too bad to be true. Anyway no point looking back, today’s horses:
Serhaaphim (3.10 Plum)
has two decent wins here in novice races last year and course form is always nice to have. Looking like he’s coming back into form based on his last two efforts and a good chance today.
Itsawindup (3.20 Kemp)
was well backed and not beaten far over further on Saturday when not seemingly seeing out the trip. If he’s over that will take all the beating and a much better jockey booked.
New Star (4.00 Wolv)
is coming back to form and dropped down in the weights. Not one for big stakes, but is now 2lb lower than course and distance win so has to have chances.
Admiral’s Way (4.25 Kemp)
his all weather form is not the best, but has had one or two good runs on it. This is his trip though and getting weight all round in a very poor race.
2 out of 4 yesterday and if you backed them early enough there was 6s and 4s available for horses that returned 3/1. Anyway for today:
Blakeshall Quest (1.50 South)
is hopefully coming to hand and has been slowly improving with each run. A multiple course and distance winner she is worth taking a chance with even though she’s high enough in the weights. I am most concerned about her stable mate, and hope Mullen has chosen her rather than being jocked off the other one.
Hamaasy (2.50 South)
is by no means best off at the weights, but the yard are in ok form and hopefully the cheekpieces will re-vitalise him a bit after a poor effort last time.
Silver Hotspur (3.20 South)
is another multiple course winner back on their favourite course and more importantly surface. Up 6lb for last win, but 1lb lower than highest winning mark. Plenty of question marks about the rest and one to be on at a nice price.
Hit the post twice and with the other selection, my fears about her stable mate proved true.
Anyway onwards and upwards today:Lyal Royal (3.20 Ling)
been running well and won here over course and ditance recently. Badly drawn, but likes to come from off the pace so can hopefully drop in and find his way into it late.
Zalkani (5.00 Ling)
is back to the course and distance of his last win and seems to need every inch of this trip. Yard still in great form and worthy of another go looking at the betting.
Appleaday (2.35 Sand)
has been a little disappointing in that he has failed to get his his head in front on the line, but has been running well all the same. The Sawyer boosted the form with his win at Cheltenham next time and the fact they were miles clear bodes well. However that ones defeat yesterday doesn’t bode that well. He has an unexposed favourite to beat, but that just means the price will be even more inflated and well worth taking it on with this one.
Silk Affair (4.20 Sand)
ran into two very smart juveniles on its first 2 runs over hurdles and was hampered on debut probably costing it a place. But ran well next time on similar ground on a similar course over this kind of trip. Being by Barathea, the ground will suit and is well worth taking the favourite on with for a yard who does well with its relatively small team of jumpers.
But for a couple of strange rides, it could have been even better yesterday but in profit so still happy. Today really fancy a few so here goes:
Carruthers (1.05 Asc)
shame the 3/1 early prices have gone because he is not really value at less than 2s but was a very good novice over hurdles last year showing good form on soft and heavy until he was a bit disappointing at the Festival, but there were excuses. A nice comeback run which looks even better after What A Friends’ next run and he gets a nice pull off Breedsbreeze.
Chief Yeoman (1.40 Asc)
finally got off the mark in handicap company last time and though this trip is sharper than that win, ran well over course and distance when allowing Lough Derg to steal that race. Only up 4lb for his win and though 9 yo still may have plenty of improvement in him. A definite each way chance.
A French Horse (1.15 Uttox)
was set to get 2nd behind Aigle D’Or last season before falling on ground very similar to this on a similar course. Didn’t seem to get home over further round here last time and clearly been given plenty of time. Big chances if back to his best form and yard still bang in form.
Smoothly Does It (3.30 Uttox)
a course and distance winner and has good form on this kinf of going. Yard still getting its fair share of winners and very good claimer taking off 7lb.
Khachaturian (3.10 Winc)
has run well the last twice in better races than this. Though he’s never won on very soft ground has decent form over it. Likes to dominate and this track allows front runners to get away and heavy ground will make it hard to peg him back and stable jockey on this time.
Grizeback (3.25 Hayd)
stays this trip well and goes on soft and heavy ground. Has been found out in graded class but this is much easier and gets in off no weight so has to be a contender.
Le Duc (4.50 Hay)
is another of Nicholls growing band of former top class horses now running in hunterchases. Though he is not always the most straight forward of rides, he has plenty of class and that should be enough in this company. His rider also showed yesrterday at Sandown that he is one of the best at this grade and would be shocked if he lost even on very soft ground.
Not so goodon Saturday unfortuneately. Hopefully we’ll have some more luck today.
Sills Vincero (3.00 Wolv)
has not seemingly been getting home over 6f this winter, when being there or there abouts, hopefully this drop back to 5f will suit and yard are having a decent enough time of it, so there is reason to believe a big run can be expected.
Bog Oak (3.25 Carl)
has run well here on his 2 previous outing this season so goes well here. Stays strongly and probably needs further, but on this kind of ground, staying will be a good quality to have and definitely goes on this going.
Squadron (4.20 MRas)
has been plying his trade in most of the top handicaps this season and apart from his last run, which was on the back of a busy autumn, he’d run well. Had a break and the King yard do well here, there’s no reason to think he can’t win this much easier assignment. Goes on soft ground and has to take a lot of beating.
Rosie All Over (4.30 Carl)
seems a horse who is crying out for a trip like this, definitely found 2m5f round here way too sharp. Yard still in form, though has had a couple of disappointments recently, but she jumps, stays and the ground shoildn’t be a problem and is unexposed over fences, huge chance today.
Chickapeakray (5.00 Carl)
is another who will appreciate the ground and ran well here over course and distance 2 races ago. Can be forgiven the poor run last time and the form will look even stronger if stablemate wins in the previous race.
Good start to yesterday but once Bog Oak was brought down got bad feeling luck was out. Rosie didn’t stay and Squadron is just not as well handicapped now and will struggle against improvers. Anyway for today:
Mr Loire (2.10 Wolv)
has been running well in and around this kind of grade recently but has won off a much higher mark in better company than this not too long ago. Clearly on the down grade. but this is not the greatest race so has to have a big chance.
Interchoice Star (2.40 Wolv)
is totally unexposed and surely has improvement still in him. Only his 2nd run in a handicap and the drop in trip will not inconvenience after a pleasing effort last time.
Magot De Grucy (3.20 Taun)
is a consistent mare who always seems to run her race. Goes well on very soft ground, this trip will suit better than the extended distance last time. The obvious dangers are the Pipe and Venetia Williams horses who are unexposed and open to more, but that means she’ll be a nicer price, though the yard will have a go if fancied, so best to take 1st show.
Sydney Sling (3.50 Taun)
absolutely dotted up at Fakenham on debut and this tight track is very similar. The form of his last effort now looks better with the winner that day (receiving weight) placing in good race then winning well at weekend. Also the yard were going through a mini slump around Xmas time, but are over that now. With others fancied he rates a great bet at the prices.
Forget It (1.40 Donc)
is from a yard who don’t tend to send them this far for nothing, has decent enough record at track and this is probably their best chance. 3rd place on debut behind 2 very promising types reads well and he will hopefully improve again. Plenty to find on flat ratings, but wouldn’t be the first to improve with 8 flights in front of them.
King Harald (3.20 Donc)
is clearly not the force of old, but his run at hletenham last time was signs he still retains enough ability for this grade. The ground will suit and he has a very good record here a win and 2 places from his 3 runs. Though now getting much further, he still has the pace for this distance.
Paradise Bay (4.30 Donc)
its still early to be backing in hunters and some of the results have not always gone to form, but he is the clear best on ratings and had bits of decent form last season. Ground and trip will suit, so worth a smallish punt.
Battlefield (2.25 Ludl)
won very nicely last time after a long absense and only up 6lb for it. Has been given plenty of time to recover so shouldn’t bounce and trainer does well here on what is a fairly local track for him. Clearly the favourite is a nice horse, but has been finding winning a little hard, so worth taking on again after a tough race on Saturday.
Threatening to Pay (3.00 Ludl)
is an ex pointer who has run well on his 2 hurdle races so far (the form of last run done no harm by runner up recently). He ran as if he still needs a trip so this 3 miles will hopefully suit. Favourite is big danger for trainer/jockey combo that often do well, but the price will be inflated because of that and their horse is not certain stayer.
Only really looked at Sandown but this is what I’ve come up with:
It’s Crucial (2.10 Sand)
is now back on the mark from which he ran a decent enough 2nd place to the very smart Petit Robin in November. His runs since have not been too bad, but the yard were out of sorts so can be excused. But they have had a couple of winners recently so maybe the slump is coming to an end.
Free World (3.20 Sand)
has run two great races round here so clearly goes well at the place. While his bad run last time can’t be totally ignored, the hope is it was just a blip and he can get back to winning ways. The opposition looks tough, but his form is solid and he is the one to beat.
Recif De Thaix (5.05 Sand)
ran well enough on his british debut in higher grade than this at Cheltenham on New Years Day. That was over half a mile shorter and he was staying on to suggest he’ll need this trip and looks the best form pick.
Pasagai (1.50 Newc)
has obviously had his training problems having just 4 career runs. But his form over fences reads quite well and he goes well fresh. Unexposed and not badly treated, has to have a big chance in an ordinary looking contest.
Dee Ee Williams (2.05 Kemp)
though he was very disappointing and there are concerns about the fact he’s had a month off, the form of his first 3 runs over hurdles still reads well. The trainer believed he had a chance in the Tote Gold Trophy so if he is that good has to have a big chance here. Obviously this is a meeting that Henderson dominates and his favourite has a huge chance, but form in the book rates higher than potential to me so at the odds, its a no brainer.
Helium (3.45 Kemp)
similar comments can be made to him as to the previous pick except he’s not disappointed yet over here. Those two wins read well enough and though there is a tie up with Dee Ee Williams’s race which will tell us more about the form of Hebridian, I prefer to be against that one than with it, especially after Oddshoes let the form down a bit the other day. The Henderson horse may rate a bigger danger as he likes to win this.
Pass me By (3.30 Newc)
has been running well in cross country races this season often staying on at the finish so this distance shouldn’t be a problem to him. A worrying effort last time, but if over what ever was up has to have an each way chance in a rather weak looking renewal.
Minster Shadow (3.30 Newc)
has never won in a handicap which is a little worrying for a 10 year old. He has run well here twice in novice chases about this time last year and has won staying hurdles over much further so the trip will hopefully suit. Did run badly last time, but that was after a break and given a mnoth to get over that, so with luck is over the bounce period. Another each way chance in a race that may not take as much winning as recent years.
Hucking Heat (3.10 Wolv)
is a multiple course and distance winner including very easily before Xmas. Bit disappointing the last few runs, but stable are still going well and has been dropped back into a very weak race here.
Keltic Moon (3.20 Plum)
has gone of the boil after a couple of very good runs in the autumn, including a 2nd place over course and distance off 2lb higher. If back in that kind of form he’ll have a chance in an open looking contest.
Chopneyev (4.20 Plum)
is an up and down performer who has never quite shown over fences the form of his grade 3 handicap hurdle win of a few years ago. That said he’s a lot lower in the weights than he was back then and in a poor looking race, he is definitely good enough to win with probably the best amatuer in the race riding.
Eseej (5.10 Wolv)
has run well this winter, winning a maiden then running encouragingly the last 2 races in handicaps. Seemingly coming to form and the yard are going well. More or less off bottom weight and very capable jockey on.
Lockstown (2.40 Catt)
is an ex pointer who has improved for a step up in distance. Still unexposed and hopefully open to improvement in what looks a very poor race.
Hazy Oaks (4.40 Catt)
showed plenty of encouragement last time out in a selling handicap over course and distance. This race is not much better so must have a big chance of scoring here.
Shadrack (5.10 Catt)
did not run badly here last on debut for a yard not known for readying bumpers horses first time of asking. Will hopefully build on that and its a race that is working out well. Definite each way chances.
Extra Bold (2.50 Leic)
was very impressive on his last start at the end of last season. Has run 2 decent enough races on his comeback this term and if he can build on a strong staying on 2nd over shorter last time, he can figure here for a yard doing well.
Ask Again (4.20 Leic)
ran a very nice race in winning a point last month which shows him to be in good form. and although one or two of these may be open to a lot of improvement, on the form in the book, he will be hard to beat if running to his best.
Thedreamstillalive (4.50 Leic)
was an easy winner before Christmas and wasn’t treated too harshly by the handicapper. Next time out was unluckily hampered while still going well, then ran into a well handicapped horse at Kempton last time out. Drying ground and this trip is a slight worry, but the track favours stayers and I can’t see anything in the field beating it.
Really bad day yesterday, 2 fairish runs for 2nd place but the rest didn’t pull up any trees. Hopefully being a bit more selective will help today:
King Edmund (2.10 Folk)
is an ex bumper winer who ran a very good race last time. He was well clear when blundering the second last then ultimately blew up on the run in. Maybe that was down to a long absence but has been given time to get over it, and if getting away like that today, could be too hard to peg back.
All You Need (2.30 Wolv)
is a two time course and distance winner and well drawn today. Yard bang in form still and though this is a step up in class, he has bottom weight and is well worth a go.
Moment Present (2.50 Bang)
runs for another in form yard (don’t a lot of my picks?) who also do well with runners here. Ran into much better horses than these the last 2 races and the yard are certainly in much better form than they were then. Not badly handicapped and can go very close.
Oh my god, seems so long since the last winner!
Hopefully these will do better:Zero Cool (2.50 Ling)
is just about the best in at the weights which while not everything, does help. Not sure its been getting home over 10f so a drop back to 8 won’t be too much of an inconvenience. It has good course form without actually winning, but the yard does well in sellers and claimers so can’t be kept out of the equation.
Argento Luna (3.40 Donc)
has form on good and faster ground and there’s no reason why it won’t get the trip. Her last 2 runs were in handicaps and only found one too good on each occasion and this looks potentially easier. Before that ran into a smart Alan king horse. And was given too much to do last time when still out the back on a front runner’s course and couldn’t quite bridge the gap, a better ride will; surely see her return to the winners circle.
Hopefully these will do better:- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.