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Really like World Shift in the opener at Sandown especially at the price. The Henderson horse could be worth taking on despite the form of the yard and Evan Williams is also in decent form and it can improve on its last run.
Free World ran well enough last time at Ascot and this drop back in trip may be more to his liking and again is fairly attractive odds though the stable could be in better form.
While the other Free World looked impressive here last time, Aradur‘s form is also very solid and he could well have that extra experience on the hot pot and King has hopefully now ended his Sandown chase hoodoo with a winner over fences here yesterday.
King’s Revenge is a favourite of mine and while he often finds one too good for him, he is again backable at EW odds and can at least make the frame again if not get his head in front.
Blue Splash has disappointed more than once but still has solid form to his name and with the yard bang in form he could run well at big odds.
I was quite taken with Master D’Or’s run last time and the trainer seems to save his best horses for Chepstow and feel he wouldn’t have a good chance in a trappy open race.
Ex- point winner Duke of Miskin gets decent weight off the favourite and will hopefully come opn for his run last time and at around 6s represent much better value.
Its possible Jolejoker didn’t stay this trip last time, but off the same mark for less than a length defeat has to be given another try though his price is not the most charitable.
A lot of hot pots of Wetherby today and while they may win, its not worth playing with or against them. " horses that do appeal at backable prices are Wee Forbees in the 2.50 and Malko de Beumont in the 3.20. Both had solid runs lasttime and both can still have improvement to come.Bit more selective today.
Vibe must have a favourite’s chance in the 2.10 at Fontwell and is worth a go for a yard that seems to do well in selling handicap races.
Kevin Ryan is still a pretty hot trainer in form and does very well with runners at Southwell. Came Back is no value but maybe in a double with Vibe can at least give a decent return and in a poor race seems by far the best at the weights.
The bet of the day could be The Listener. Admittedly very disappointing on debut this season, he is a course and distance winner and given a better ride and uncontested lead could easily run these into the gorund. War of Attrition still has to porve he’s back to this level and Noland still has flaws which he has to overcome, so at the prices the Listener is best bet.Like the look of Roisin’s Prince in the 1.20 at Leicester. Proven over course and distance last time on this kind of ground on his 2nd start for the trainer, he’s got a very good in form claimer on board and can hopefully find a little more improvement to win again.
Cool Sands was slightly disappointing when well backed last time but in my view was never put in the race. His previous runs suggest a step up in trip won’t inconvenience so he is worth another go.
Orphenella is still unexposed and has placed 3 times on the surface so definitely handles it well. The distance is a bit of a mystery, but its worth taking a chance and it has the assistance of a very canny front running jockey in today’s race.Ice Planet, unproven on the surface, but has won on soft ground and has some good bits of form on polytrack. Not the greatest race in the world and if right today can be the value pick at the prices.
Very poor effort the other day hopefully these will be better:
Betteras Bertie goes on the surface after 2 decent runs recently and is better off with Mrs Bun for their last meeting. Yard is beginning to find form and is expecting a decent winter.
The 12.10 at Southwell can go to Orphaned Annie. On a line through Hawkspring she has the beating of Svindal especially with her claimer taking off 7lb. Still improving and unexposed on the surface.
Really like Tramantano in the 12.45 at Cheltenham. He’ll go on this ground and his last run wasn’t too bad after a good win in October.
While I was keen on Imperial Commander all week, given the rain I think he can be taken on by Nozic who goes well on heavy and stays much further than this trip which could be crucial in a slog. He wasn’t beaten far last year by the Hennessy winner which looks good form now. Favourites have a bad record in the race and he was nibbled at last time in a much hotter race than this. Definite EW potential at big odds.
Like Nozic, Chomba Womba has form on very soft ground and has won over further, so stamina is not an issue. Yard still in form, especially at weekends and she is still well in at the weights with many of these so can make the frame at least and be profitable EW.
Thundering Sky didn’t seem to go on the soft ground the other day and had a hard race, so Enfant de Lune can take him on and beat him. Went on soft last time and but for a bad blunder late on would have been in the frame so worth another chance.
Providing he doesn’t bounce, and he’s had time to recover from his excellent come back run, Gringo can win the 3.20 at Doncaster for another in form team in Wylie, Johnson and Regan.Not really had a real look today because I haven’t really had time, but I was really taken by how This Ones for Eddy won last time. The yard seem to be able to ready them for AW gambles and he certainly obliged last week. Maybe they always knew he would go on fibresand and were just getting him right or it was just a very bad race, but staying on strongly over 6f and winning by 8l with plenty more seemingly in the locker means his 6lb penalty may not stop him. He’s not price at about 2s but if he is due to win again, and the fact he’s out so quick suggests he is, that kind of price will go by the time he crosses the line knowing how the yard works. I do respect David Evans a lot so Kensingotn has chances, but the pick is less exposed and may be set to run up a sequence.
Couldn’t decide between Brewery Man or Festival king in the staying handicap hurdle at Catterick, so will swerve that one. The rest of that card and olkestones could be anything and not worthy of bothering with, though the last at Folkestone is a race worth looking at for future reference.Keep hitting the bar without too many of them bouncing the right side of the line but here’s hoping today is better.
Comhia Ri Coig (12.20 Hay) has bits of form for his in form yard that suggest he is a good horse and his run last time was probably over too far a trip. Likely to be a chaser of the future, these brush hurdles will also suit as will very heavy ground.
Folie A Deux (12.40 Newc) is getting one more chance to prove himself not to be a professional loser. He seems to run well without winnnig, but this looks an ideal opportunity and the yard doesn’t send them this far for nothing. Stable form is a slight worry, but if there is a race to be won, this is it.
I quite like bits of Bobby Donald (1.25 Hay)‘s form and as an ex pointer, he should appreciate these bigger hurdles. Again its a yard that does well with its longer distance travellers and has to be worth a go each way.
I’ve been quite sweet on Pettifour for some time and he was going to be my bet of the day, but the yard’s form is a major worry, especially after Buck The Legend’s poor effort yesterday. So I’ve decided to take the Henderson duo on with the tough and dour Blazing Bailey (2.10 Asc) .The ground will be ideal for him, the gallop will be stronger than last time and that may find out one or two others. Its not unusual for him to run a bad race 1st time out, even though he’d won on the flat prior to that and the King yard are flying and seem quite bullish.
D’Argent (3.10 Hay) is a horse I’ve always like despite the fact he seldom wins. He does however tend to go well in these marathon chases on all kinds of ground. The yard could not be in better form and big weights have a good record in this race, so that is not a worry for him. Again he rates an each way chance, but don’t be surprised if he gets his head in front by the line.
Another yard on fire is Philip Hobbs’s and they can get at least one winner at Ascot with Barnhill Brownie (3.15). His last run was more than decent and showed he goes round here and gets 3m. The yard though is in much better form now and he can get back to winning ways.Two good winners bookended the other bets on Saturday, though got no run from D’Argent and Folie A Deux seems to be a horse for woh no race is winnable.
Best bet of the day could be Venetia William’s National Petition though the value has well and truly gone out of him. Did get 5/4 earlier but even that is no price and he could well go off odds on. Hard to tell how good his last run was as the fog meant you only saw him briefly, but he is anothe ex pointer who was seemingly placed over hurdles to get a low mark before being stepped up in trip to win when going chasing. He is unpenalised for that win and off bottom weight with top 3lb claimer taking off, he looks set to win again.
Have always had a soft spot for Vic Dartnell and though he’s hjad a fair few disappointments so far this term, Honaourable Arthur can win the bumper for a yard who do well in that kind of race.Worked hard on these so lets hope they produce some good profits.
King’s Forest (12.40 Taun) has a little to find with the favourite and Taunton over the distance might be a bit sharp for him, but he did run in THAT maiden hurdle at Cheltenham and plenty have come out and franked the form since, so at the prices (reduced since I put my bet on 1st thing) he is worth a little punt.
I like Brendan Powell and he is getting winners again recently. Morestead (2.15 Taun) has come up against some very decent juviniles in his last 3 runs and off unfavourable terms too and not been disgraced. If he runs to that level off no weight he can win a tricky but not impossible handicap.
I have always had a soft spot for father and son teams whether it be the Tizzards, the Frosts of old, the Pogsons and now the Flints. Iris’s Prince (2.50 Taunt) is sure to get the trip and is in good nick. Its a little worrying he’s creeping up the handicap without winning and at short odds against some likely improvers is not one to go crazy on, but he is still most likely.
Newlyn Art (2.30 Ling) clearly acts on this surface and gets the trip well based on his last 3 runs (the last 2 in particular). Though up after his nursery win his last run was possibly even better and with question marks against his chief rival, he can score again for the inform Elsworth yard.
At the odds, Totally Focused (3.05 Ling) has to have a squeak running back over a trip seems his on the surface he’s won on. Needs luck in running, but has jockey who is good with that kind of runner on the AW.
Granny McPhee (6.20 Wolv) is by non means bulletproof and there are several who could well improve past her. But has very solid looking form from her last 3 efforts and more interesting for me is the fact this shrewd yard is still persisting with maidens with a handicapped horse.
Common Diva (6.50 Wolv) was bitterly disappoiting last time when well fancied and backed. Hopefully that was due to new tactics not working and a return to holding her up and this longer trip will help. Well in at the weights and previous form is good, so has to be given another go.
All weather sprinters seem to take it in turns and several of these have had their turn recently. That means it could well be Almaty Express (7.50 Wolv)‘s go this time. Off a winning mark and usually comes good around the New Year, again another worth a speculative bet.
Zuwaar (8.20 Wolv) is a course and distance winner from last time and at 3 y-o is more likely to improve than most of these on only its 12 run and 3rd at the trip. Not harshly treated for a convincing enough win last time, can strike again.
Hard to assess his form after only running in sellers and claimers recently and the trainers desperation to reach her landmark figure may mean he’s running in this when not 100%, but I am siding with Singleb (9.20 Wolv). The form is solid and times more than fair and this may not be much better than a seller or claimer anyway.Stravita (12.10 South) won very well last week over shorter trip. Has ran ok over 1m6f in the past including when well in front of main market rival in similar race to this. Has 6lb penalty but only running off a 3lb higher mark than last win, must have a big chance for a very in form yard.
Captain Macarry (12.40 South) a recent courseand distance winner who ran well last time but was just beaten over a furlong more. Not badly treated and has big chance of following up. Not a lot between it and the Johnston horse who will be better back on the surface, but still think he has a little more left in the locker.
Boundless Prospect (2.15 South) the best horse at the weights which is never a bad thing though not always crucial, his yard had a great time last month and can carry it on for a while longer yet. Though a little short in price, his form is holding up and unlike the favourite is more gauranteed to reproduce it.
Ruby Crown (1.00 Folk) let me down a bit last week, but it may be that she just ran into an incredibly well handicapped horse (had form behind Little Shilling). Needs to be placed closer to the pace, but the stiff finish will suit and is due to go up another 7lb herself soon so this is an ideal chance to strike again.Come to the conclusion that my all weather form reading is getting worse so giving it a break for now.
United (1.00 Sand) Nearly top class before her injury and returned to form last month at Haydock. If she’s recovered in time this is almost a penalty kick for a horse with Grade1 and 2 wins behind her.
Stow (1.35 Sand) With the Venetia Williams yard still going well, it could be worth taking on the favourite with this fella. Ran a good race last time travelling strongly when well backed to beat a good yardstick of Alan King and though needs to improve again, no reason why he won’t on ground that might be too lively for some.
Antonius Caesar (2.10 Sand) good form in France and a pleasing effort last time on good ground at Doncaster. If he were trained by a bigger yard he’d be half the odds, and a definite ew proposition today.
Dee Ee Williams (2.40 Sand) has become one of my favourite horses in training at the minute and though I’m not 100% certain he’ll win at the Festival, think he has got too many guns for this lot today. His last race was run at no pace until they turned for home but he and the winner still put enough ground between themselves and the pace that were still in a heap 2 out. Has the gears and also the stamina that mean he’ll see off a decent looking field.
Keepthedreamalive (3.15 Sand) great run last time when up against it at the weights. While the form has not been franked by the winner since, it still looked fairly solid. A stronger run affair here will help as will the testing finish and he goes on good ground. Again ew chances at the very least.
Hernando Royal (3.50 Sand) seem to back him more often than not and while he keeps creeping up the weights for not winning, he is still runnning well enough to say his turn may be soon. Ground will suit and given a decent pace he can stay on strongly to be there at the end.Signalman (12.40 Kelso) in the words of the mighty Thommo, he’s done nothing wrong in his 3 hurdle races to date running well each time. He probably didn’t stay last time, but has won over course and distance and has to go well again.
Royal Glen (2.10 Kelso) has bits of form that give him a chance here inlcuding a 3rd on soft ground at Carlisle 3 runs ago. Gone off a bit since, but if he repeats that run has a big EW chance in this one.
Nelliedonethat (3.10 Kelso) 2 good efforts on soft gorund over staying trips the last twice shows he’s still on good terms with himself and still not badly treated. Will hopefully still be going when many others have cried enough and yard does well here.Jass (3.00 Ayr) ran a big race over course and distance the time before last and though a very disappointing beaten favourite next time, can get his first win over fences now back to a more appropriate trip.
Both Best Prospect (3.30 Ayr) and Zaffarella (4.00 Ayr) are unexposed over hurdles and not too badly treated. Both of them need to get over slightly disappointing runs after long absences and while these races are not the greatest, they both have to be back to their best novice form to win. However i expect both to be able to do so for in form yards.Laharna (1.50 Folk) had good form in points though didn’t seem to stay the longer trips. Ran well to win over the minimun distance last time and though up in the weights, should have too much in this one for yard that is still in decent enough form. Not a big price, but doubled up with
Silk Affair (2.20 Folk) makes it a bit more profitable. Silk Affiar was the best of this lot on the flat and ran a pleasing enough race last time against a very good winner. Being by Barathea he should appreciate the softer ground and this stiffer test at Folkestone will also suit more.
Tosula (2.50 Folk) has run a series of solid efforts over fences before a disappointing effort last time. This looks weaker and though up against some unexposed types, it can win for a yard that are still having a good season and do very well with Choc Thornton booked.Bonny Bright Eye (12.30 Newc) was very poor on the flat, but was far from disgraced on her hurdling debut. Seems suited by softer ground unlike some of the more fancied runners so worth a small EW bet.
Stagecoach Opal (2.05 Newc) won right on the line last time on faster than ideal gorund. This will suit better and though up in weight can score again.
Day Du Roy (3.10 Newc) is getting long in the tooth, but has showed in recent runs that still very capable off this mark. Didn’t get home last time when going well for a long way and is definitely worth a small EW investment.
Bruslini (12.50 Newb) is worth taking on the favourite with, especially given how the form of it’s run here has taken several knocks and he didn’t look the most straightforward. This one has decent form in France on the ground and the yard does well with hurdlers here.
Cockney Trucker (1.55 Newb) is another to run in "that" maiden at Cheltenham and though none have gone on to score again, most have stepped up in grade after a win while he stays at this level. Seemed to be crying out for a trip in 2 runs over hurdles, he can give jolly backers another bloody nose.
Joyrider (2.30 Newb) ran OK last time and needs to step up again on that to figure here. That said the yard were out of form then and while still not firing on all cylinders, have had better results before the frost so he must have an EW squeak at a nice price.
Najca De Thaix (3.00 Newb) is not one to risk big stakes on, but is worth a small EW bet, especially if you can wait to see if he jumps off with them. This is higher than he’s ever won off, but has run well off close to this and he is still a horse with plenty of ability if on a going day.
Cognac Boy (12.10 Ling) is too expensive and well bred for a race like this. Not a bad run last time when not seeming to stay and worth another go off a very low weight in a tricky but not impossible claimer.
Acropolis (1.10 Ling) failed to land the gamble last time for previous yard and must be one of the worst handicapped horses this winter. However even if 10lb wrong, he still has a couple of lb to spare here and this is more his trip than the 10f he ran last time when out speeded by a decent rival.
Summer Winds (2.20 Ling) ran a good race the last 2 times out over this trip and is worth another go for a yard that is beginning to get winners. At the prices has chances against the Prescott hot pot.Cast Cada (1.00 Chep) has run very well 2 races ago at Uttoxeter in a race that on paper would be better than this and was not disgraced when upped to handicap company at Ascot when the yard were just starting to find winners hard to come by. If he does that here he wins well.
Mage D’Estruval (3.10 Chep) is a real mudlark who really needs a test of stamina. Ran ok over an inadequate trip last time and given time to get over that seasonal debut should be much fitter and worth an EW punt at big odds.
Anduril (12.40 Catt) is now having his 2nd run in a handicap after an encouraging effort in this grade last time. Good jockey on and can hopefully improve again.
Osolomio (1.10 Catt) put up a more than respectable effort last time out on his 1st run over fences and can step up on that here. Not the best of these over hurdles, but this ground and distance will suit more than they suit others.
Argento Luna (1.40 Catt) looks the bet of the day. The form of her 2nd place last time was well boosted by the winner storming home yesterday. Stayed on well that day so hopefully this trip and decent ground will be right up her street for a yard that has come back to form this season.
Stoneriggs Mer (2.10 Catt) could be called a bit of a professional loser but has ground and trip in his favour and gets a 2lb pull off Cordwell for narrow defeat over course and distance last time. Tentative selection, but has chances on the book.
Super Baby (3.20 Catt) This trip on this gorund may well be what he needs and has been a model of consistency lately. Never easy always narrowly losing as the handicapper never lets it go, but still worthy or a bet in tricky race.Friday was really frustrating especially at Catterick where all the picks were there or there abouts with 1 to jump though a couple didn’t quite get home and a couple were slightly unlucky.
Right for today:
Quince (3.20 Wolv) Big danger to the 3 Evans veterans (though expected price to be double the current one on offer). Though badly off at the weights the yard are going well and will be there or there abouts. If he drifts to 5/2 or bigger then he has to be played, not sure about current prices.
Willie Ever (3.50 Wolv) ran a nice enough comeback race the other day after a lengthy absence. He may well bounce, but the hope is that if he’s out so soon after his reappearance, the yard have got him in tip top shape. At his best before his illness, this would be well within his compass so is worth an ew bet today.
Woody Waller (1.00 Muss) ran a very good 3rd behind Walkon at Huntingdon last time. Trainer does well at this course and a big run can be expected even against his elders.
Danzatrice (1.30 Muss) is an equal to the favourite on the flat. While his form is very solid indeed, this mare definitely gets the trip and the hope is this slower ground will blunt the speed of some of her rivals and she can score.
Nelliedonethat (2.00 Muss) gorund suits, trip suits, horse running well, trainer in form and top jockey booked. All the right boxes ticked, huge chance today.
Percutant (3.00 Muss) looks like a typical Ferdy handicapper. Ridden out the back in his early novices. Was upped in trip last time so it doesn’t look like too big a jump in trip and in performance. Graham Lee is back on board and he doesn’t appear to have too high a mark and probably now primed to strike.
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