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  • #3990
    bigmickie
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    I would appreciate any guidance where to find book-article-website etc that gives info about what types of going do offspring of various stallions act or do not tend to act on…thanks

    #92246
    Pegwell Bay
    Member
    • Total Posts 208

    Try Timeform’s Statistical Review. Lists all wins of a stallions progeny and the going for each of those wins, for the last 3 years.

    With that data you could then figure out the percentage success rate for each stallion’s progeny on every type of going. (Wish Timeform would include this info themselves). Keep meaning to do it myself but never seem to have the time.

    Hope thats of some help to you.

    #92247
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1981

    Alternatively you could both save yourselves a lot of time.  There is no credible statistical evidence I have ever seen, including my own research, that suggests that going preferences are inherited.

    #92249
    Pegwell Bay
    Member
    • Total Posts 208

    Quote: from Glenn on 10:58 pm on Sep. 29, 2003[br] There is no credible statistical evidence I have ever seen… that suggests that going preferences are inherited.

    The following is just one example I know, but it does raise doubts about your statement made above Glenn.

    The sire Linamix produced his best performances on the racecourse on good or softer ground. His worst performance came on good to firm ground.

    Only one of his 25 winning progeny during the past 4 years (1999-2002) failed to win on good or softer ground.

    But you suggest going preferences aren’t inherited?

    :laugh:

    I suggest its more likely that with a few certain sires there is a marked going preference passed on to its progeny, yet with other sires there is probably no marked going preference inherited by its offspring.

    #92251
    prince regent
    Member
    • Total Posts 221

    <br>pegwell bay

    going preferences are not genetic   tony morris  a few weeks before the closure of the sporting life listed the top 50 sires   with wins over   firm g/f  good  g/s  h a/w

      only 4 of them showed any  marked preference   the rest  were fairly evenly matched

     the only 2 goings which threw up any preferences were heavy and all weather   some like royal acadamy taking to all weather quite well and some like sadlers wells  not getting any results

    sadlers wells also have a poor record on ground described as heavy   he has a far better record on ground described as firm

    mtoto was one sire whom had a marked preference for  good or faster

    silver hawk  was about  equal split between the range  g/f to g/s

    jagger by linamix won on saturday on fast he also won  york on g/f

    #92252
    JAMES321
    Member
    • Total Posts 14

    From – Raceform

    Top 15 sires on Firm

    Nureyev 24.8%<br>Storm Cat 23.6%<br>Kahyasi 22.5%<br>Kingmambo 21.5%<br>Silver Hawk 20.2%<br>Zafonic 19.95%<br>Royal Applause18.8%<br>Caerleon 18.7%<br>Darshaan 16.8%<br>Danehill Dancer 16.5%<br>Grand Lodge 16.4%<br>Nashwan 16.3%<br>Rahy 16.2%<br>Red Ransom 16.1%<br>Sadlers Wells 15.8%

    Top 15 sires on heavy ground

    Miswaki 60%<br>Storm Cat 50%<br>Zilzal 37.5%<br>THeatrical 36.4%<br>Batshoof 35%<br>Hector Protector 30%<br>Silver Hawk 27.3%<br>Celtic Swing 26.7%<br>Makbul 25%<br>KIngmambo 25%<br>Phardante 25%<br>Atraf 22.2%<br>Hernando 22.2%<br>Diesis 20.6%<br>Emerati 20%

    <br>Sires with nil record on heavy ground

    Alleged<br>Anshan<br>Danehill Dancer<br>Danzig Connection<br>Dayjur<br>Dilum<br>Distant View<br>Entrepenur<br>Factual<br>Flying Spur<br>Formidable<br>General Monash<br>Goldmark<br>Greensmith<br>Highest Honour<br>Keen<br>Kings Signet<br>Kris<br>Last Tycoon<br>Magic Ring<br>Pennekamp<br>Pharly<br>Pivotal<br>Prince of Birds<br>Prince Sabo<br>Project Manager<br>Rahy<br>Red Ransom<br>River Falls<br>Rock Hopper<br>Royal Abjar<br>Royal Applause<br>Shareef Dancer<br>Shirley heights<br>So Factual<br>Superlative<br>SuperPower<br>Then Again<br>Tina’s Pet<br>Whittingham<br>Woodborough

    #92253
    bigmickie
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    thanks -some nice information and thoughts.I was watching the one mile plus maiden from windsor on attheraces (monday) and pat murphy was saying that the favourite–a sadlers wells colt-might struggle on the firm going.sure enough it ran a bad race and i start to think that sadlers wells are probably better with cut in the ground…then i notice that the easy winner of the race was a colt of michael bells by …you guessed it… saddlers wells.ah well

    #92254
    johngringo
    Member
    • Total Posts 89
    • The problem is not so much if going ability is inherited but much more poor going reporting making it impossible to be accurate.
    • The inhereted traits of a stallions progeny do not necessarily have to have been evident in the stallions own racing career, indeed most stallions have had too short a racing career to be able to determine what would have been their own preferences.
    #92255
    Bilko
    Member
    • Total Posts 15

    Good thread.

    James321’s list is interesting but doesn’t give the whole picture. How many of the sires that have nil winners on heavy, have had more than a handful of runners? All statistics are there to be broken.

    #92257
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    I’d guess that to some extent there should be some hereditary influence.

    Hoof size and shape are supposed to have some bearing on going preference and that would be inherited from the parents.

    In his Q&A for TRF, Nick Mordin wrote something which might be relevant if anyone is thinking of doing a statistical analysis:

    "my research indicates that the further down the class scale you go the less relevance breeding has…. if I found an unexposed horse in a 2YO seller on soft ground I would not regard it as relevant that the sire’s progeny have a good record on soft.  

    If a horse hasn’t inherited any of the ability of its sire (and it can’t have done if it’s in a seller) then you can’t expect it to inherit any of the sires other attributes either."

    I thought this sounded quite reasonable.

    Anyone got any thoughts on this?

    Steve

    #92258
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    Simpliest way is to observe the horse going down at the start. Clear as crystal.

    #92260
    prince regent
    Member
    • Total Posts 221

    <br>j mcgrath(timeform one)  disagrees with that aiden

    its a difficult subject going  the best method is to look at the actual record of the horse under  discussion

     for  debutantes it is very much subjective

     indian ridges are supposed to prefer cut  but snow ridge seemed to act on fast on saturday.

     i find stamina is more inherent than going preferences

    #92263
    Sal
    Member
    • Total Posts 562

    The main influence stallions have on going preferences is through the type of conformation passed to their offspring.  If the sire tends to throw animals with more fragile legs or with a high knee action then his progeny will tend to do better on softer ground, or low actions and smaller hooves will cope better with fast.

    Some stallions pass on conformation traits much more strongly than others, so a pattern will not necessarily develop for all sires.  Additionally, sometimes a stronger genetic influence for conformation will come from the dam, or from the grandparents, so even sires who ‘stamp’ their stock will occasionally have oddities.  

    It is usually best to look at each individual animal first without reference to it’s breeding, but if they confirm in appearance to a type (a ‘typical Sadler’s Wells’, a ‘typical Selkirk’), then you can usually make a good assumption about their ground preferences before watching them race.

    #92264
    Monkey
    Participant
    • Total Posts 141

    The percentages are much higher for the top 15 "heavies" than the "firms".

    Maybe this suggests that the aptitudes required for success on heavy going are more specialised? But it may be wrong to assume that some sires’ progeny prefer heavy conditions just because they are high up the table. It might simply be because they have a high concentration of runners in Ireland (e.g. Storm Cat), or even France (Kingmambo, Hernando), where heavy conditions are more frequent.

    <br>I’m glad you’ve mentioned Indian Ridge, PR, because I too have my doubts. Didn’t the horse himself handle fast ground?

    #92265
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3236

    <br>I’m sure the ‘low class’, ‘high class’ line is the one to pursue.

    If a Sadlers Wells horse wins a maiden, the ground conditions probably aren’t significant, but those races are all included in any stats. It’s more likely that it won because it’s top class and racing against moderate opposition.

    There’s not much doubt that they win on any ground at group level and if there’s a bias towards soft in the overall stats, it’s probably because his offspring need 7F+, so mainly appear in maidens in the autumn.

    As for worrying about what acts on heavy – when was the last meeting on heavy going in the UK?

    AP

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