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I hope so Mickey. I have 7/1 Gregory and 14/1 Tower of London.
If only I had cashed out Savethelastdance. 14/1 on her favoured soft ground.
Personally I think tower of london has a better chance than continous
Unless he is sacrificed in some way for moores mount
“Personally I think tower of london has a better chance than continous”
Tower Of London prefers nice ground I think, his disappointments have been on soft, and this looks a prep for the Melbourne Cup as he’s not had a recent prep for this. I’d be a bit surprised if he won.
Times on the round course indicate proper soft ground but on the straight course somewhere between good to good to soft.
Think with the drying day today and more of the same tomorrow it is likely going to be no worse that good to soft on the round course and probably good on the straight but Donny’s wesite updated today at 10:35 is still giving the going as soft.
Arrest should be alright as long as he can get his toe in a little and he is now mainly 4s (5 with Bet365) which I think is probably about right.
Were people really expecting the going to be soft or heavy?
Good-soft should be fine for Arrest and can’t see it being any firmer than it was at Newbury.
However, what did go through my mind is whether the draw might prove Arrest’s undoing. Is he also best with some space around him? Frankie seemed at pains to keep him very wide early on in the Geoffrey Freer and wider than most go at Chester in the Vase too. Possibly looking for better ground but am not convinced that was the true reason. Always having nothing to his right and keeping a clear view of the front.Will Denmark and / or Tower Of London be pacemakers / race prominently?
If so then although drawn 6 of 9, Frankie not only has the Coolmore pair drawn on his outside but the consistently ridden front runner Cheesepiece too. If not getting away as fast as those three, will he be surrounded? Or be forced to go too fast in order to get that prominent position on the outer that seems to suit Arrest best?Value Is EverythingAlthough none of Coolmore’s four are proper front runners, I feel sure one will go to the front. If only to lessen the chances of two (Arrest and Cheesepiece) of their five rivals.
I’d expect Continuous to be out the back with Desert Hero and possibly Middle Earth. Alexandroupolis might be sacrificed, but he was steadied at the start last time so could be held up too. Although that was after a long time off and may have been given an easy race / not fully fit? Raced in around third in the Ballysax. Not sure Denmark is genuine enough to be a pacemaker judged on his last time out effort; but should be at least in the front half of the field along with Tower Of London. Latter is certainly the more reliable. Gregory seems the most adaptable but considering the others preferences will probably race around mid-div this time.
Value Is EverythingThink he can sit handy happily if others go off faster as I am not sure he really needs to lead as he didn’t at Chester and I think it was more a case of nobody else wanted to go on at Newbury so he made it.
We really don’t know 100% what the other O’Brien horses will do, you would assume the two outsiders (Alexandroupolis & Denmark) will be employed as some form of pacemakers to ensure a good pace but to me it is not a given that Continuous will be suited by going 14F, so maybe they will try to slow it down and turn it more into a 12F race. The one thing you can count on with him though is he is the least ground dependent as he has won on good to fir, good and very soft in France.
Tower of London’s two worst performance have both come on ground much slower than good (soft and heavy) and Gregory, I think will need it to be a true test of stamina as he doesn’t appear to have much tactical speed, so he could either force the pace or be handy and try a long run for home if they try going slow early.
3 of Desert Hero’s 4 wins have been on either soft or heavy but his other win was on good but if you fancy him then you have to fancy Chesspiece who was only a neck behind him at Goodwood but Chesspiece was over 4L behind Gregory in the Queens Vase at his only try at the trip. So they would appear to have a bit to find on him let alone the others.
Continuous looks the classiest horse in the race and it might be that we see another Ballydoyle team tactics on the front end in order to set it up for him to pounce.
Personally if they went a proper end to end gallop I don’t think continuous will get the trip
It’ll be interesting to see what they do
Funny market, not surprised too see frankie abandon gregory after lto, hasnt a prayer against continous, chesspiece at 12/1 + is the bet for me though
I’m on Chesspiece I don’t think he is out of it.
The more I know the less I understand.
“3 of Desert Hero’s 4 wins have been on either soft or heavy but his other win was on good but if you fancy him then you have to fancy Chesspiece who was only a neck behind him at Goodwood”.
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No.
Pace and position are key to both Gordon and possibly the Leger too.
Desert Hero’s performance in the Gordon was much better than Chesspiece’s neck suggests.
It was a very slowly run race with Chesspiece having a massive advantage by being in the best tactical position out front, while Desert Hero sat out the back in the worst possible posi’. DH could be seen to be going much the best but then had to wait for a gap before quickening. Sectionals pretty much prove Desert Hero value for a lot more than the neck victory.imo Anyone thinking Chesspiece is value would be relying on thinking the slow pace (albeit technically a positional advantage) did not suit the supposed stout stayer. But there is also a big doubt about Chesspiece getting an uncontested lead today with possible Ballydoyle pacemakers and Arrest in opposition. Chesspiece’s improvement has come when leading and there’s a question whether he’ll be so effective if unable to lead.
Desert Hero may have shown speed at Goodwood, but looked asthough further would suit at Ascot and being held up today shouldn’t be a problem tactically. He’s also been improving at a faster rate than Chesspiece.
so imo Desert Hero should be considerably shorter than Chesspiece, even more so than he currently is.
Go to 9:30 to find the Gordon…
Value Is EverythingA very good summing up there Ginge, too late I’m on the Chesspiece.
I know people are on Arrest and good luck to all but I don’t think I could stand it if he won.The more I know the less I understand.
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