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He’s not a stallion prospect at this stage so they will probably run him
They tend to be much more adventurous with the horses that don’t have a string of 1s
Alleged got beat in the leger in 77 and then won the arc. If it is soft or good to soft I reckon they will roll the dice.
Other winners have run well in Arc’s subsequently
Nijinsky, Crow, Sun Princess & User Friendly all finished 2nd
Ribocco, Snurge & Hurricane Lane all finished 3rd
Dunfermline and Toulon finished 4th
Milan finished 5thSo there are cases where winners do go on to run well in an Arc
Run well, yes. Win = zero.
I expect they will run Continuous but the 12/1 available is about right.
I can see him running well if he is over his Doncaster exertions but I cannot see him being anywhere near good enough to win.
Yes, Alleged went on to win at Longchamp after defeat at Doncaster. But I doubt even O’Brien would be able to convince anyone Continuous is another Alleged.
“So there are cases where winners do go on to run well in an Arc
Nijinsky, Crow, Sun Princess & User Friendly all finished 2nd”I wouldn’t go just off that as the gap between the races can vary and so can the horse’s campaign. For instance Nijinsky had 3 weeks between the races which is more suitable than 2 weeks but was still a big disappointment when beaten in the race.
They can afford to take a chance with Continuous if he’s alright as they have that many horses.If he’s fit, he will run. Nothing to lose and everything to gain. As a son of Heart’s Cry, even a place guarantees him a stud role in Japan if Coolmore don’t want him.
I would think he would stay in training and is improving with racing. Could be a cracking 4 year old.
The Aussies have wised up to the Northern 3 year olds a bit after Cross Counter and Rekindling , but that was a cracking run from Desert Hero when looking at Melbourne Cup . He will get 52 kgs , maybe 53 kg I’d guess , that will see him go very close . They might load up Vauban with weight , Soulcombe looks in good nick but he looks in and out horse ,not much else stands out so far down these parts . Hope stable bring him , they love William Haggas and Aussie Tom . Will be big news if they head down with Kings horse .
Good call Helcat. Best possible result for a Melbourne Cup candidate. Can’t allocate him a top weight for finishing 3rd.
He seems to go on any ground looking through form , surely will pass the scans as lightly raced and William Haggas has it all over these Aussie trainers , he brought ex hurdler down last Autumn and won decent race first up .
When Serpentine runs decent forth yesterday giving 6 kilos to winner you know the ranks are flimsy , and that’s no disrespect to Serpinetine as he’s been pretty gallant out in OZ . Next three weeks it starts to pane out once the stayers get out to trips , Hoo Ya Mal for example ran over seven and second up over mile in group 1 yesterday and he has gone ok , clearly just being set for later so he’s in the mix .Be great PR for the King and Queen to have a trip to Aus’ in November?
Value Is EverythingThe short gap between Leger and Arc is an obvious potential problem; but Continuous also has more speed than most Leger winners.
Not the Leger, but Ardross won the Doncaster Cup at the meeting before failing only by a head in the Arc.
Value Is EverythingLester said he should have won with Ardross but started his run just a fraction late.
15 days is a tight turnaround for sure but he ran in the Dante and French Derby which was just 18 days between them and then another 19 days on from that to when he ran in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot.
Ardross was a very special horse to be able to run in those Group races back to back with a 6F difference in race distance – he came heartbreaking close to winning that Arc but the post came just a few yards too soon for him to peg back Akiyda, on what was the final start of his illustrious career.
From memory I don’t think Lester thought he would win but looked to be placed. Ardross ran a cracking race and had Lester really believed he could win he probably would have. He came agonisingly close and Lester looked really annoyed with himself. Definitely one that got away. A tremendous horse in a vintage era of stayers.
He was 5th in the race in 1981 when they probably made a bit too much use of him because of his car park draw (24 of 24!) and they rode him forward quite hard to get an early position early.
1982 he was drawn a few off the inside but got shuffled back early and had to sit and suffer quite a bit (not ideal on a stayer over a trip way short of his best) but he still managed to get in a position to track Akiyda but when they quickened off that final turn he just couldn’t initially go with her and lost a vital few more lengths on her, which I believe was the race winning move.
I think you will find Lester really did think he could win because when Ardross finally did hit top gear, he really got stuck into him with a rather liberal use of the whip in the closing stages but the winning post was always sadly coming just that bit too soon.
Apologies for going off topic but he was a real favourite of mine growing up.
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