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my points system
150 mastercraftsman
133 delegator
131 intense focus
126 evasive
123 lord shanakill
120 pure poetry
120 soul city
120 orizaba
108 born to be king
106 set sailwill back mastercraftsman to win
St James’s Palace:
Born To Be King and Set Sail look to be in here just to ensure a test of stamina for Coolmoore’s first string. Though neither looks up to winning this from the front and the rest might ignore them.
Mastercraftsman has the best chance of winning but looks a poor price. Will take all the beating if able to reproduce the form of his impressive Irish 2000 Guineas win totally different (heavy) ground. Has winning form on a sound surface but others may well have been inconvenienced in Ireland. Aidan O’Brien is not quite in the cracking form he was then. All Mastercraftsman’s wins have come at The Curragh and ran poorly after a busy campaign on his final two year old start in France (stable in poor form then). This now his third run in just over 6 weeks. Having said all that, he stands comfortably the best chance of these.
Delegator was only 9th of 10 behind Mastercraftsman, eased when beaten. Probably did not act on the ground or stay the trip in the testing conditions. But also, the Meehan stable was in awful form at the time. It was a dismal performance and it’s asking a lot to return to form here. But I see no reason why he and Mastercraftsman should be as far apart in the betting. Goes well on a firm surface and the English 2000 form has held up well.
Soul City ran well on reappearance in the Irish 2000. But has 6 lengths to make up on Mastercraftsman. His best has come with some give underfoot.
Evasive had an interrupted preparation for the Guineas and may be better than that run suggests. Still in with a chance when hampered; that probably the reason for him weakening in the final furlong, rather than stamina. Comes from an excellent family, That of Prix Diane winner East Of The Moon and the brilliant Miesque. Sire responsible for Raven’s Pass. One of the best looking two year olds I saw last year. All going comes alike to him.
Pure Poetry was only just behind Evasive in the 2000 and ran well afterwards. Just pipped on the post by Premio Loco. However, seems more exposed than most here.
Lord Shanekill disappointed in the 2000 and is not certain to stay. By a Breeders Cup Sprint winner though dam stayed quite well. Close second in a poor Dewhurst.
Intense Focus was the victor in the Dewhurst but is a small horse who (judged on his reappearance in March) may not have trained on.
Orizaba seemed to prove his stamina when third in a French Group 3 on reappearance. Just below top class as a two year old and looks little more than a social runner for Godolphin here.
My 100% book:
Mastercraftsman 6/4,Delegator 7/2, Evasive 5/1,
Intense Focus 16/1, Lord Shanekill 22/1, Soul City 25/1, Pure Poetry 40/1, Orizaba 40/1, Set Sail 500/1, Born To Be King 800/1.
Backed Evasive each way yesterday at 13/2, may have a saver on Delegator if the rain stays away.
Mark
Value Is EverythingIf Delegator missed the Irish Guinneas would he be 4/1 or 9/2??
Surely not, cross a line through it and take the obvious value about a good horseMy only worry is if the abortive trip to the Curragh (why?) to run on bottomless ground might have left a mark on both Delegator and possibly even the winner. I’m inclined to lay a bit back and have it on Evasive each-way.
St James’s Palace:
Born To Be King and Set Sail look to be in here just to ensure a test of stamina for Coolmoore’s first string. Though neither looks up to winning this from the front and the rest might ignore them.
Mastercraftsman has the best chance of winning but looks a poor price. Will take all the beating if able to reproduce the form of his impressive Irish 2000 Guineas win totally different (heavy) ground. Has winning form on a sound surface but others may well have been inconvenienced in Ireland. Aidan O’Brien is not quite in the cracking form he was then. All Mastercraftsman’s wins have come at The Curragh and ran poorly after a busy campaign on his final two year old start in France (stable in poor form then). This now his third run in just over 6 weeks. Having said all that, he stands comfortably the best chance of these.
Delegator was only 9th of 10 behind Mastercraftsman, eased when beaten. Probably did not act on the ground or stay the trip in the testing conditions. But also, the Meehan stable was in awful form at the time. It was a dismal performance and it’s asking a lot to return to form here. But I see no reason why he and Mastercraftsman should be as far apart in the betting. Goes well on a firm surface and the English 2000 form has held up well.
Soul City ran well on reappearance in the Irish 2000. But has 6 lengths to make up on Mastercraftsman. His best has come with some give underfoot.
Evasive had an interrupted preparation for the Guineas and may be better than that run suggests. Still in with a chance when hampered; that probably the reason for him weakening in the final furlong, rather than stamina. Comes from an excellent family, That of Prix Diane winner East Of The Moon and the brilliant Miesque. Sire responsible for Raven’s Pass. One of the best looking two year olds I saw last year. All going comes alike to him.
Pure Poetry was only just behind Evasive in the 2000 and ran well afterwards. Just pipped on the post by Premio Loco. However, seems more exposed than most here.
Lord Shanekill disappointed in the 2000 and is not certain to stay. By a Breeders Cup Sprint winner though dam stayed quite well. Close second in a poor Dewhurst.
Intense Focus was the victor in the Dewhurst but is a small horse who (judged on his reappearance in March) may not have trained on.
Orizaba seemed to prove his stamina when third in a French Group 3 on reappearance. Just below top class as a two year old and looks little more than a social runner for Godolphin here.
My 100% book:
Mastercraftsman 6/4,Delegator 7/2, Evasive 5/1,
Intense Focus 16/1, Lord Shanekill 22/1, Soul City 25/1, Pure Poetry 40/1, Orizaba 40/1, Set Sail 500/1, Born To Be King 800/1.
Backed Evasive each way yesterday at 13/2, may have a saver on Delegator if the rain stays away.
Mark
Have now saved on Delegator at 5/1 with VC. Fingers crossed about the rain.
Value Is EverythingWont be betting as is the norm for me for this meeting although i could be tempted with the Gold Cup on Thursday.
Mastercraftsmen is the class act in this race and is another serious Miler from the Ballydoyle production line.
Delegator hasnt really gone on as expected but the booking of a proper jockey is a huge bonus.
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I almost feel like the Lone Ranger here.
Take my advice guys and don’t have a bet in this race keep your money get drunk and find the biggest guy in the bar and tell him he’s ugly. Hopefully he’ll knock some sense into you
Mastercraftsman won’t find a race as easy as this one.
He goes on the ground, he can go round corners, like the Curragh it’s a fairly stiff mile, Your main danger Delegator needs to be held up if he is going to get the trip and if he gives this horse a couple of lengths start from 2f out he won’t get anywhere near him.
Now be truthful you didn’t get the 7/4 and now your looking for something to beat a horse you know should and probably will win.
Go drink your money and listen to old Fist he knows best
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A last someone with some sense
Welocme to the Forum mate.,,,,,,,have a ball
While I like Mastercraftsman, Evasive shouldn’t be one to dismiss, along with Mastercraftsman they were the horses to take out the race bar Sea The Stars, for a horse that was going through big problems in the build up it was really impressive to see him put a gutsy front running performance, I think Mastercraftsman is too short to back so I’ll be going with a each way on Evasive cause even if he does get beat I can see him running a good race, think he should be entitlted to improve from his Guineas run.
If Evasive sits cosy behind the Coolmore pacemakers and Soul City, and we assume natural improvement and progress (of the typical SMS standard) from the 2,000 Guineas, he can make up the 2-3 lengths on Delegator and that would be enough to win this IMO.
But 4/1 vs. 5/1 is suggesting Evasive is almost on level terms. Tricky.
I think Delegator might feel the good-to-firm on a stiffer track more than he did in the 2,000 Guineas. Somewhere out there, Bulwark’s proclaiming to his minions that he horse needs good ground. And I’m firmly agreeing with him.
It’s a race in three, and I’m content to back Evasive and be done with it.
The bottom line is:
MASTERCRAFTSMAN
will – not – win!
Soul City only ran at the Curragh because of the stakes for a winner from a million sale.he came to hand late and was not wound up for that race. I believe he will be a different horse to morrow having beaten the best in his previous race at the Curragh as a 2yo.
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Keep tking those tablets Myles. They will help……………eventually!
Most of you are going against Mastercraftsman despite what could only be describes as a devastaing performance at the Curragh.
I can only assume you asssume that this ground will for some reason be against him.
Well according to Kieren Fallon Mastercraftsman is not your normal run of the mill Danehill. He does not have a a soft ground action, something I tried to emphasise on here in the past. The horses action is much better suited to fast ground according to him.
If he is correct and I am petty sure the man knows better than any of us, then if he puts up a similar performace to that he put up at the Curragh, he will take the world of beating.
I can’t have the Guineas form at all as things have moved on from then.
There are two great Group1 races over a mile today and when the results are in comparison will be made between Gladiatourus and Mastercraftsman, taking it they both win.
Pretty sure one of them will then be regarded as the best miler in Europe before the day is out.
One of the reasons Fist – if it were obvious to many punters he would not be odds-on.
I assume you meant Danehill Dancer though.
Mastercraftsman – 7 runs into his career we still really don’t know how good he is. He still hasn’t beaten a Group 1 top notcher in todays ground, he’s all stamina and lacks a turn of foot. He takes a while to get into full gallop and perhaps got unbalanced in the dip at Newmarket. Given that he’ll have to go round a sharp bend for the first time today and he’ll only have two and bit furlongs to sort himself out you’d could argue the track wont be in his favour. AOB used the one race too many excuse to explain Longchamp last Autumn, the horse faces a similar schedule today. Looks a very short price.
Delegator – If you ignore a race run on national hunt ground at The Curragh there is a huge inefficiency in the prices. Spencer did ease down heavily the last day so you’d hope he didn’t take too much out of himself. Mastercraftsman never got near him at Newmarket. Haven’t seen a miler in Europe this season with his turn of foot, the problem is he can only sustain for 10-12 seconds before he starts to tread water. If Fortune (no tactical genius) can keep him handy and he’s upsides with a furlong and half to go the favourite will be trailing in his wake. Big price.
Evasive – So far his best runs have been when they made good use of him early a tactic they tried again in the Guineas. He was legless at the finish and they didn’t go that quick. Big concerns about the trip although still unexposed enough to prove that wrong. Too short on all known form though.
Intense Focus – You’d have to think he’d have run in the Guineas if Bolger thought he was that good. The fact he was out in March running in Group 3’s is not a good sign, no market confidence today either. Maybe his glory days were last year.
Lord Shanakill looks better over shorter, Pure Poetry has ability but looks paceless at this level, Soul City seems like to like go get into an early lead with cut in the ground (unlikely today), Orizaba looks very one paced and looks more like 7f would suit.
Tactics – With no stamina doubts about the favourite you’d wonder why Ballydoyle have 2 pacemakers in? Add in Soul City and Evasive and Mastercraftsman could find himself a little further back then he’d like given his lack of acceleration and the relatively short straight. The bend may help Delegator stay on the pace a little longer than Newmarket and keep his weapon of mass destruction till as late as possible.
Jimmy Fortune will have to do everything right tactically to win this and you’d never be over confident of that happening, but he has the horse and at 5/1 there is enough meat on the price to factor in that negative. So I’m a Delegator fan today.
Even though I think Mastercraftsman may not get things all his own way, as he did at the Curragh, yet the more I look at this race, it is really difficult to find one that can beat him .
I think Johnny Murtagh will probably kick for home two out and it will be a case of catch me if you can.
I don’t think they will, and for that reason I have to make the Aidan O’Brien horse my solid nap of the day.
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