- This topic has 42 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Seldom can I remember the 2,000 Guineas form being franked by both the winner and runner up in such unconvincing fashion.
Many thought it was a really good 2,000 Guineas – I thought it was ok, up to standard.
I’m no longer sure it was even that.
Not much between numerous 3yos at this stage.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Yes, often moving to the rail on the front runner can be an advantage, LD; but not here.
I’ve watched the replay a few times now and Coroebus was himself two off the rail, right behind Lusail. So had Dobbs gone to the rail if anything he’d have opened up the gap for Buick to go through. So I am certain now it made no difference.
Value Is EverythingYou’re a hard man to please, Chezza.
If looking at all Native Trail’s last four starts, he is one that always needs to be asked to quicken, probably no matter what the company. So is never going to be impressive against lesser opposition.
Today’s race was all about the pace. Coroebus raced keenly today, didn’t have the fast pace of the Guineas to settle in behind and couldn’t show the 2000 Guineas form. It’s also the first time he’s been in a horsebox travelling. All previous four starts being at Newmarket.
I see no reason to devalue the form yet. Vast majority of horses only run to their very best no more than a few times in their lives and most need similar circumstances
Value Is EverythingAlthough had he come down to the rail its is possible that My Prospero, New Energy & Mighty Ulysses may have also followed him over (or potentially had not been out so wide in the first place) potentially giving Buick trouble in getting out when he wanted to.
All if buts and maybes at the end of the day and had he moved to the rail and still got beat then fairplay as Pat Dobbs could then say I did everything I could but he will be miffed (as all jockeys would) if someone slipped up their inner to beat them a head at the finish.
Yes, I agree if they’d all followed Dobbs to the rail it might have been more difficult. But more likely they wouldn’t have followed (or not immediately) and as a result Buick’s path / job would’ve been made easier.
Value Is Everything“You’re a hard man to please, Chezza.”
I am.
I’ve seen too many very good (and very occasionally great) horses put daylight between themselves and better horses than Coroebus and Native Trail.
As have you.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"We also both know the old saying “horses are not machines” they don’t run the same every time.
If there is a good reason/s for a horse not showing the same form then I’ll take into account those reasons in future events, but won’t devalue what I think the animal is capable of given its optimum conditions unless there are good reasons to do so.
ie I’d want to see Coroebus run again off a stronger pace before thinking I need to lower his rating, even though his write up isn’t as good as it was before the SJP.
I’d also want to see Native Trail run against better opposition than he did in the Irish Guineas before lowering his rating. Because he probably needs to be asked to quicken no matter what company he keeps. Has had the Timeform symbol for “found plenty for pressure” on all his last four (possibly five) starts.
That said, there will of course be others improving to threaten their early dominance. That’s just the nature of our great sport.
Value Is EverythingI tend to find excusing horses at short prices less profitable than condemning them at short prices over time.
Coroebus and Native Trail have both failed to win races with authority that I didn’t consider particularly high quality.
And both will be overbet in all probability next time out.
That said, I take each case on its merits as it occurs, so I will wait to see where they go, who they’re up against and how they are priced up.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Suspect a lot of punters will believe Maljoom a better horse than Coroebus and that Coroebus is only marginally better than the St James’s second, third and fifth…
And many will believe Native Trail only as good as the Irish Guineas winning distance.
So both may well be underbet.
That said, many people still under-estimate Baaeed so if Coroebus takes on Baaeed who knows… And Native Trail is often a better price in running than before the race due to his “needing to be asked” tendency.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.