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I agree Without Parole is too short as does Johnny G. He obviously has huge potential though and I wouldn’t worry about his run last time out as he was on his way back from a lay off and clearly hated the sticky ground. He’ll improve bundles for that run BUT he needs to. As for previous form – the only horse you have to worry about is Ostillio who he beat by 6 lengths and who won next time (runs in The Brittania). The rest were beaten so far that their form since doesn’t worry me. .
I too like Gabr as it was his first run of the season and SMS’s have tended to need their first starts. I don’t see why he wouldn’t like fast ground – his dam did – and I think he looks the type to come into his own at three.
Ryan will try and pinch it from the front but he will do well to win this from such a wide draw on a track that will test the horses doubtful stamina to the limit. Same stamina questions over GK. I think the Irish Guineas rather fell into the lap of Romanised and I’d be surprised if he could repeat the trick.
Tip Two Win probably deserves to be fav and would be if he was trained by someone more fashionable. That Guineas run was very good and he has been laid out for this. Was it a great Guineas though..?
I heard that the French are all over Wootten but he has a terrible draw.
So I’ll probably have a little bit on Gabr and hope that WP drifts to a more bankable price. I know how much Frankie and JG think of this horse and I think if there is a special horse in the race, it is likely to be him.
Best of luck all.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I had huge confidence in Wootton coming into this season. I felt he could be the best miler in Europe this season. Oddly enough, they went with him from the front in the trial, as he had seemed a hold up colt with a turn of foot at two. He held on narrowly from Olmedo in the trial but I figured a return to hold up tactics would suit him better next time.
In the French Guineas he was certainly far enough off the pace, arguably too far but there is a strange phase of the race from 45 seconds into it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkNYtte16LA
Well back, Wootton starts making rapid headway at what seems far too early to be asking him for maximum effort. It wasn’t far off Araziesque in the way he passed a good few of the field. They are also approaching a turn at the time which doesn’t seem a goodtime to be quickening into the bend. Does the jockey lose control of the colt for a while?
Whatever, having been third last, when the camera angle changes, Wootton is then in third place and seems to be going OK. In the end he just seems to weaken out of it, as Olmedo comes to claim them all late.
Certainly you could argue Wootton is worth the chance to see if it was inexperience that cost him dear with his antics and if I could swap him with Without Parole I probably would do. Just the nag that the French Guineas may not be great but Wootton looked a bit special twice last season and rather than Without Parole, I would say Wootton COULD be the standout horse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve a antepost on Without Parole, which i will be laying off, as at his price now you couldn’t be confident.
The only think i will say about the Gabr formlines and prices, yes i can see the angle, however, as much as it was Gabrs first run, Without Parole, had a slight setback and he will not have been fully cooked for that race at all. They will have been closer together fitness wise than people think…
Would touch him at 3-1 or shorter tho.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!This is the one race that I’ve been most happy with going in to the meeting given my ante-post book. I’ve only added the one and that’s Gustav Klimt at 12/1 with the thinking that like U S Navy Flag, he’s improved from race to race and there’s a sneaky suspicion this is his ideal test. So I’m getting well behind the Irish and the hope is obviously that I’ve managed to pull off a coup. By no means am I just on my big two because of their value in the market, I do think they both have outstanding chances. U S Navy Flag should relish conditions and the course and Romanised looked the part at the Curragh.
U S Navy Flag 25/1
Romanised 20/1
Gustav Klimt 12/1Have to take on without parole
Have to take on the irish guineas form
Gabr needs to find 10lbs
Chilean and wooton better with cutTip to win e/w @6/1 Gift.
King’s Shield is a big old price.
Right he needs to find a good bit, but the FR race was a muddling affair, and the last race won’t have suited at all.
G/F and that old “Scat Daddy at Ascot” theme, i think he’s big at 28s….Only 1.25Ls to make up on Wootton, albeit both probably didn’t have perfect races given incidents.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’m not worried about the ground for Wootton. It’s all about waywardness for me.
This was the closing stages of his debut win last year and I really felt he was going to win by 12 lengths before the shocking antics out in front:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO_nvjqeWnI
Bearing in mind he was running straight on and it wasn’t Epsom he was at, the initial loss of straightness was a bit worrying but the second drift was like the HMS Bounty setting Captain Blight adrift,
I hoped they had taken him past that but his antics in the French Guineas cost him the chance to win and seeing behaviour like that a second time, on a horse’s 4th start, you have to question a temperament issue, as opposed to mere greenness. It’s enough to put me off anyway. I suspect not many punters saw Wootton’s debut and I was a bit alarmed when I first found footage of it. Combined to his latest effort, is it a worry for anyone else?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wooton and US Navy Flag drawn widest, but that wouldn’t worry me unduly because they’re the two most likely front runners. Wooton didn’t like being held up last time out, particularly taking a strong hold when the pace slowed drastically mid-race. This is a race that many are exposed as good Group 1 horses; before that race Wooton looked a potential star and is therefore worth taking a chance at current prices. Hopefully will act on the ground which he hasn’t faced before.
The other horse with real top class pretentions is Without Parole. His form isn’t yet up to some of these but has bags of potential to do so. Had ground and fitness difficulties in the Heron Stakes, but still got the job done. 3/1 isn’t overly generous, worth a saver though. On the face of it Gabr may look value on that form. But the Heron probably run on Gabr’s ground – not Without Parole’s. Probably the other way around here.
My other main bet is Romanised. Only horse to be held up amongst the Irish Guineas principles. Possibly even better than distances suggest. English Guineas second Tip Two Win‘s form has been franked. Obvious form chance but trainer doesn’t seem in as good form as he was early May.
US Navy Flag will probably need a career best to win this on his 15th start. Level of form seems exposed. Needs everything to go his way, including an easy lead and Wooton likely to go with him this time. Stablemate Gustav Klimt had been freindless in the market, looking a doubtful starter at one stage. Hasn’t seemed in love with the game in two Guineas’s since a good reappearance.
Value Is EverythingFrom my preview (DLAP):
‘4:20 – St James’ Palace (Group 1)
I was on WITHOUT PAROLE (11/4) for the 2000 Guineas – thankfully at non runner no bet – but he missed the race with a minor foot injury. He reappeared at Sandown on ground softer than he would have liked but looked workmanlike to maintain his unbeaten record. Whilst his price is probably on the short side now, I do expect him to show himself as one of the best milers in Britain here with a good performance. On form basis alone, Tip Two Win deserves to be the favourite after his second in the 2000 Guineas. That form is red hot with the third winning the Derby and the fifth filling the runner up spot at Epsom. Assuming that was no fluke, he will go well again here for Richard Teal. Romanised beat Dewhurst winner US Navy Flag in the Irish Guineas and connections of both will be hopeful of big displays again. Jim Crowley has said that Gabr has been crying out for good ground but will need to improve again from his run last time behind the selection. Gustav Klimt was expected to be O’Brien’s best miler during the winter by many but has been beaten in both Guineas comfortably and would need a career best to feature here whilst Wootton represents the French after losing his unbeaten record when fourth in their Guineas. It’s an open race this year without an obvious superstar in the lineup beforehand. Perhaps afterwards, that may have changed.’My ante post fancy, Hey Gaman, misses Royal Ascot so I’ve had another stab at it
with Wooton at 7/1. He has some decent form over
in France and ran well enough in the French Guineas last time out, but didn’t settle
and ran into trouble late on. He’ll need to settle better here, and this is his first
go on g/f ground. His sire Wooton Basset won on it several times so I think he will
be fine. He’s my nap for today.Get in there.
If there’s a better ride than that this week, I’ll be suprised. Brilliant from Frankie. Absolutely superb.
Better performance than the winning distance suggests as he was up near the pace from the start whereas the 2nd and 3rd were held up off it.
Assume the Sussex Stakes would be next but some of the later mile races could be dependant on ground conditions – BC Mile would be the obvious end of season target given likelyhood of quick ground.
Assume the Sussex Stakes would be next but some of the later mile races could be dependant on ground conditions – BC Mile would be the obvious end of season target given likelyhood of quick ground.
Especially with his owners being Americans.
Value Is EverythingFantastic! Blew any doubts or doubters away. Such a gutsy win as well. I was sure he was going to be overhauled in the final furlong.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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