ST James Palace Stakes

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot 2014 ST James Palace Stakes

This topic contains 42 replies, has 15 voices, and was last updated by Ghost of Rob V Ghost of Rob V 5 years, 3 months ago.

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  • #482412
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20804

    Toormore back in the running now.
    phew……. :)

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #482464
    Ghost of Rob V
    Ghost of Rob V
    Participant
    • Total Posts 719

    This race is a tough one for me because I love both horses.

    If the ground is Gd/Fm then I’d be more swayed towards Night Of Thunder. If the going was softer, it’d be Kingman. If the ground is good then I might just toss a coin … but then I’d have to decide who’s heads and who’s tails! :? Hang on folks … I’m suffering from Gosdenitis!

    OK *gulp* … Night Of Thunder for me! :mrgreen:

    #482480
    trendyrich
    trendyrich
    Participant
    • Total Posts 617

    I’ve been watching the 2,000 Guineas again and I have noticed something that I seldom see in horses running at the top level – the ability to find an extra gear or "kick" when running in the last last furlong. I don’t mean "kick for home" type of thing, but more like a spurt for a few yards which takes the horse past another.

    In the Guineas race I noticed 2 "kicks" from Night Of Thunder in the last furlong which took him from around 5th to winner.

    The first "kick" is at the point when Kingman pushes for home around the furlong pole. Caught out and 2-3 lengths back, Night Of Thunder suddenly “kicks” to come up to Kingman’s hind quarters, then drifts across the track only to "kick" again when he gets near Australia.

    Kingman is different, he sets sail for home and maintains a strong pace, but the real quality horses have that rare gift of not only travelling at pace but also having that ability to find extra when needed. I think Night Of Thunder is such a horse.

    We shall see. 8)

    #482487

    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4526

    My biggest concern for Kingman supporters would be team Hannon trying to mess the race up again. I assume Idea has been entered to try and make sure that doesn’t happen.

    I hope this doesn’t turn out to be a big mistake. Odds on this will now be a messy race.

    #482489
    IBRacing
    IBRacing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 525

    I think they’ll make the running with Toormore. He’s run that way before. If he’s good enough he’ll win if not it sets things up for Night Of Thunder who is bred for further and probably wouldn’t want a sprint.

    #482523

    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4526

    I don’t think there will be any pace as the Hannon team will not want to do anything to help Kingman to settle.

    Although I think he is on the horse with the most ability it promises to be another tactical challenge for Doyle. This time I suspect he will want to track Night Of Thunder through but if concentrates too much on one rival that may well give something else a chance to nick the race from the front.

    Too many potential problems to be taking short prices.

    #482529
    Gladiateur
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1127

    The old adage reminds us not to make excuses for beaten horses.

    Of course, Kingman demolished Night Of Thunder in the Greenham and left such a deep visual impression that many believe that he wasn’t at his best when the form was reversed in the Guineas. However, the Hannon charge looked the more backward of the pair at Newbury and obviously improved considerably for the run; the fact that he came from behind the favourite, crossed the track and then

    quickened again

    close home at HQ shouldn’t be blithely ignored.

    I’ll take Night Of Thunder to confirm the Newmarket form.

    #482534
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Kingman has looked special on two occasions now and although Night Of Thunder won fair and square at Newmarket it had that look of everything just falling right on the day and I tend to believe that last gasp brilliant runs are something that is very hard to repeat in horse racing.

    Night Of Thunder was largely unconsidered last time at 40/1 and Richard Hughes passed him over in favour of Toormore, perhaps a sign that he wasn’t seeing the progress on the gallops that the horse made on form book evidence from the Greenham to the Guineas.

    Timeform have Kingman on 143p with Night Of Thunder on 141 and state that they expect the former to run out an authoritative winner of the race. The ground is currently good on the straight course with good-soft good in places on the round course. That should be perfect for Kingman and a Guineas style burst from Night Of Thunder may be harder to pull off on the different going. The Gosden stable has been in better form the past 10 days or so and I expect Kingman to add to that today.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #482669
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26322

    The Guineas was a truly run mile, where Doyle used his turn of foot too early. Fallon let them get on with it before pouncing late, staying on to win going away.

    On the face of it

    Night Of Thunder

    might appear better value than

    Kingman

    . However, today’s race is likely to be less of a test of stamina. Prince Of All might go on, but he won over 7f last time out. Has (in his grade) plenty of speed. Night Of Thunder’s stable companion Toormore is (or shouldn’t be) a "pacemaker". It is in both Ryan Moore’s and Chris Hayes’ interests not to make it a test of stamina. Therefore, likely to produce the type of race less favourable to Night Of Thunder’s chance than the speedy Kingman. Although the respective odds probably allow for that eventuality and neither strike me as "value" at this stage; despite imo Kingman’s going preferences massively over-stated by press.

    Toormore

    could get the run of the race and imo has a better chance than 10/1 suggests. Possible he bounced after the Craven. Am skeptical connections gave the Dewhurst a miss purely for the sake of it. Irish race might have taken more out of him, hence not running in the Dewhurst. Only two weeks between Craven and Guineas, practically two months plus between other races.

    War Command

    isn’t out of it either, if the ground (as I suspect) is genuinely firmer than the official, like last year. But he’s (previously been) a hold up horse too. Produced his most authoritative performance in a truly run race here last year. Although if connections truly believed him in top form would they use cheek pieces today? I’m regretting a saver on him yesterday. Easy to back so far today which suggests ("the boys" like a bet) not going tio be good enough. Pushed him out.

    Outstrip

    ran so badly in the Guineas it is difficult to see him get back to form, and needs to better that form.

    Yuften

    won his maiden so easily, could be anything, but needs to find an enormous amount in one go to win this.

    Prince Of All

    won a fair listed race, making all. Related to a St James’s winner in Zafeen, but unlikely to be good enough unless rivals give him a very soft lead.

    My 100% book:
    Kingman 11/10
    Night Of Thunder 11/4

    Toormore 13/2

    War Command 10/1
    Outstrip 50/1
    Yuften 50/1
    Prince Of All 200/1

    value is everything
    #482679
    SirHarryLewis
    SirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1163

    Kingman has a short price chance but i wouldnt bet on him at these odds.. Did he achieve a whole lot more by winning at the Curragh on ground that seemed to suit him, than he did on the previous occasion?. Its easier for me to reach the conclusion that it was Night of Thunder who under performed in the trial leaving his jockey (who was a big fan) with no option but to get back on his stable companion.

    Also Kingman was well into the final furlong before he had to take it up and was in no way as inconvenienced as Australia. In fact he took it up in pretty much the same place as he did in the Irish Guineas. The only aspect that I feel may have played a part is that he may have become isolated when the winner drifted away from him…

    Overall, the slightly easier ground here will be enough to get him home although i think a few bob ew on Outstrip might yield something.

    SHL

    #482695
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Not sure what Hughes was trying but it backfired spectacularly, simply becoming the target for Kingman.

    John Gosden was negative, Jimbo McGrath more negative still but the punters knew and my record of ante post defeated guineas horses hosing up every other time they run was again the best guide to the race!

    Impressive.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #482699
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    I’ve been watching the 2,000 Guineas again and I have noticed something that I seldom see in horses running at the top level – the ability to find an extra gear or "kick" when running in the last last furlong. I don’t mean "kick for home" type of thing, but more like a spurt for a few yards which takes the horse past another.

    In the Guineas race I noticed 2 "kicks" from Night Of Thunder in the last furlong which took him from around 5th to winner.

    The first "kick" is at the point when Kingman pushes for home around the furlong pole. Caught out and 2-3 lengths back, Night Of Thunder suddenly “kicks” to come up to Kingman’s hind quarters, then drifts across the track only to "kick" again when he gets near Australia.

    Kingman is different, he sets sail for home and maintains a strong pace, but the real quality horses have that rare gift of not only travelling at pace but also having that ability to find extra when needed. I think Night Of Thunder is such a horse.

    We shall see. 8)

    The way Hughes chose to ride the race gave no chance for a second kick today. I suppose they might have pulled it off from the front but coming late did the trick last time and it smacked of a lack of confidence having to change the tactics today.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #482706
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26322

    I’ve been watching the 2,000 Guineas again and I have noticed something that I seldom see in horses running at the top level – the ability to find an extra gear or "kick" when running in the last last furlong. I don’t mean "kick for home" type of thing, but more like a spurt for a few yards which takes the horse past another.

    In the Guineas race I noticed 2 "kicks" from Night Of Thunder in the last furlong which took him from around 5th to winner.

    The first "kick" is at the point when Kingman pushes for home around the furlong pole. Caught out and 2-3 lengths back, Night Of Thunder suddenly “kicks” to come up to Kingman’s hind quarters, then drifts across the track only to "kick" again when he gets near Australia.

    Kingman is different, he sets sail for home and maintains a strong pace, but the real quality horses have that rare gift of not only travelling at pace but also having that ability to find extra when needed. I think Night Of Thunder is such a horse.

    We shall see. 8)

    The way Hughes chose to ride the race gave no chance for a second kick today. I suppose they might have pulled it off from the front but coming late did the trick last time and it smacked of a lack of confidence having to change the tactics today.

    Not "lack of confidence" imo Steve, just sensible race planning/riding. Night Of Thunder won from the back in a

    truly run

    Guineas,

    staying on to win going away

    . As I said earlier, the St James’s Palace had two rivals who usually raced prominently, but neither would’ve been suited by making it a strongly run race. Therefore, had Hughes held the horse up in a

    slowly run

    race he’d have got

    even more outpaced

    in a finish than he did. Hughes did the right thing by getting the best position in a slowly run affair and trying to pinch the race.

    value is everything
    #482716

    del_boy
    Member
    • Total Posts 389

    As i thought, Kingman won on the bridle more or less.

    I had £80 on Australia in the Derby 6/4 and I got £200 back. I put this on Kingman today at 1/1, and now I have put £360 on Treve at William Hills, as I just noticed she has drifted out to 8/11.

    Come on Treve baby, win for me. The aim is to get £1000, therefore I will put £600 on Australia for the Irish Derby providing I can get 6/4 on the day.

    Opinions?

    And also well done NathanHughes for having faith in Toronado, to which the advice has scooped me 51.8 points in the TTF!

    Thanks,
    del_boy

    #482721
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    I’ve been watching the 2,000 Guineas again and I have noticed something that I seldom see in horses running at the top level – the ability to find an extra gear or "kick" when running in the last last furlong. I don’t mean "kick for home" type of thing, but more like a spurt for a few yards which takes the horse past another.

    In the Guineas race I noticed 2 "kicks" from Night Of Thunder in the last furlong which took him from around 5th to winner.

    The first "kick" is at the point when Kingman pushes for home around the furlong pole. Caught out and 2-3 lengths back, Night Of Thunder suddenly “kicks” to come up to Kingman’s hind quarters, then drifts across the track only to "kick" again when he gets near Australia.

    Kingman is different, he sets sail for home and maintains a strong pace, but the real quality horses have that rare gift of not only travelling at pace but also having that ability to find extra when needed. I think Night Of Thunder is such a horse.

    We shall see. 8)

    The way Hughes chose to ride the race gave no chance for a second kick today. I suppose they might have pulled it off from the front but coming late did the trick last time and it smacked of a lack of confidence having to change the tactics today.

    Not "lack of confidence" imo Steve, just sensible race planning/riding. Night Of Thunder won from the back in a

    truly run

    Guineas,

    staying on to win going away

    . As I said earlier, the St James’s Palace had two rivals who usually raced prominently, but neither would’ve been suited by making it a strongly run race. Therefore, had Hughes held the horse up in a

    slowly run

    race he’d have got

    even more outpaced

    in a finish than he did. Hughes did the right thing by getting the best position in a slowly run affair and trying to pinch the race.

    After today Night Of Thunder’s Guineas win from Kingman looks like a flash in the pan. For whatever reason, he managed to kick past Kingman late and that was reasoned by some to be because Kingman was played a little early and Night Of Thunder was played last.

    There was no chance of that happening today with the way Night Of Thunder was ridden.

    You can call it good planning and sensible if you wish but from the moment the Hannon horse went to the front I knew he was a sitting duck for Kingman to pick up.

    It may have been a plan but after that I don’t think even Baldrick would have called it a cunning one.

    Toormore looks like sprinting might be his last hope of salvaging something and War Command, well, I won’t mention the Coventry for fear of offending some :wink:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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