- This topic has 997 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Lingfield 3.20
PRIMROSE RIDGE
Agostino might run well on all weather debut but the reason for the price collapse is that Hugh Taylor has put him up. He is very poor value win or lose at single figure odds. I’m glad people don’t go crazy when I put one up.Primrose Ridge takes a big drop in class from her last run.
Showed good early speed in the Queen Mary when last seen and led Dramatised through the opening fractions on her side of the draw.
Eventually tailed off from a position which didn’t suit.
Early season promise including a debut second in the Brocklesbury to Persian force followed by a seven length win at Beverley.
Two seconds to star of Lady M. Has shown excellent tactical early speed in each run.
Rested and comes back fresh after wind surgery. Drawn high here which will suit style of running, if taking to the all weather then way down the handicap for nursery debut. Likely early speed will set this up for the inform favourites including the Godolphin top weight, but by the same token could leave them all behind with front running style.
All at sea in a huge field at Ascot this maximum ten runner handicap will suit much better and look out for her sweeping across early to grab the rail.
PRIMROSE RIDGE
Each way. ( Four places)Always disappointing when they don’t go well and the other one you mentioned did.
Geological
SEVENAL
Both win
3.45
ListowelListowel 2.35
WESTERNESSE
Win
Latest performance behind marcher lord franked.
String of seconds likely to end positively here.Newmarket 3pm.
VICTORY DANCE
Win
Gets the vote in this four runner race.
Yard won this race last two years and superlative and Newmarket and Newbury form should help immensely.
Tight contest but yard know what is required to win this.It normally only takes two to get a result on the soul selection, but hopefully third time lucky here.
PONTEFRACT 3.28
WAN’EM
Win
Won impressively on debut and the form was franked by the two following who have racked up three wins since..
Worcester 1.20
Twig is a multiple winning hunter chaser.
His last win coming in a hunter chase and this is different gravy and cops a ten pound penalty coming into a class three.
Course and distance is normally everything and although Twig has it, he has not faced anything of the Calibre of his two rivals.
Giving weight to a horse on a four timer on chase debut is not ideal.
Arrivederci is definitely the class horse here. A second to fiddlerontheroof the best form on offer. Raced at graded hurdle level and clear top rated on that.
Who knows which Jonjo O’Neil horse will turn up here? The stable know the time of day and no one can be any wiser until the money is down. We’ll know more about this smart prospect after today.
There are no question marks about FOUND ON.
She gets better the further she goes.
Loves to front run and this slight drop in trip is the main concern, although she has wins at all trips down to two miles and crucially has experience and a point to point in the bag.
Receives lots of weight from Twig, and has the form in the book. No doubt the O’Neil runner Arrivederci will be the better horse in time, but preference today is for Found On.
FOUND ON
WIN
——————————————-
Not having taken a price, the odds have shortened and the 11/8 about a winning distance of 3 lengths or more is the call.
Arrivederci will push her all the way but Found on may be able to assert on the home straight and pull clear with the experience already gained.Listowel 4.35
DONKEY YEARS
Win
Won for this thread at punchestown 146 days ago.
Beat recite a prayer.
Ballotted out of the national on Wednesday laid out to win that comes here instead.
KITTY GALORE
Win
Runaway winner last time chances again here.ADELAIDE RIVER
Is an odds on shot to win at the Curragh.
Won impressively at Dundalk last month, on debut before a less than satisfactory turf debut in France.
Ante post backers may be searching their bins again if he takes another step forwards at the Curragh.
He was invited to make most of the running and found little for pressure when tackled in the last furlong. The ground looked a little over watered then and easier conditions may see him in a better light today.
Stablemate Continuous has dropped out. This is a race the trainer has farmed all of the last eleven.
ADELAIDE RIVER to win by two lengths or more
11/8.
———————————————
I’ve revised my decision on this bet and CASHED OUT. The fact is the odds don’t suit.
O’Brien runner has a clear chance to win this but the winning distance is not of any consequence to seeing out this trip and finishing first. If the odds were 5/1 then it would be an attractive proposition but it is not…..4.18 listowel
FALCO BLITZ
Win 20/1
Off for 140 days last seen pulling up on good ground at Newton Abbott for the second consecutive run.
Previously a class 2 winner off a mark of 139 at Kempton and well below that rating now. Clear top rated here on debut for Emmett Macnamara. Strike rate of 4/20 for Nicky Henderson and this top weight is a danger to all if retaining ability. Big outsider.ARQOOB e/w
LUCANDER e/w
PERROTTO Win
Get my vote for the Cambridgeshire at 3.40.
each wayHappily, cashing out on Adelaide river to win by two lengths was a good move yesterday.
Replacement bet on the main thread was crypto force to win without Adelaide river at 100/30 which paid out as a winner.
Still felt like a losing bet when CRYPTO FORCE actually won comfortably @ 15/2.
Today’s selection involves
ART POWER
At the Curragh 3.05
He faces potentially a tough field and has only raced three times since winning this race last year.
A few runners have ducked this race and only one other runner remains from last year.
He followed this win with a fine race next time out. Two runs this season have been on firm ground which has not suited.
Tim Easterby’s 25 runners yielded three winners yesterday and that is ominous for the coming weeks as at least ten of those runners will collect in their next four runs..
The winning distance of just two lengths is a side bet @ 4/1 and while he is set to go off at just 6/5 best odds might see that price improve later.
ART POWER
To win @ 6/5 best odds guaranteed.ART POWER to win by two + lengths @ 4/1
The Curragh 3.05
The only runner for the yard today.
Notably Easterby selects
David Allan to ride just like last year.Get in! Sam maximus keeps a respectable distance and ART POWER lands both bets comfortably.
Won by three lengths @ 4/1
And won @ 6/5 advised and an sp of evens.
Hopefully some national hunt again soon.
Two bets for the Irish cesarawitch n the big races thread.AGES OF MAN’s
Appearance in the triumph hurdle does not make him a world beater.
But his earlier third behind global export and HMS seashorse enroute looks as though it could set the standard here.
Those two also went on to perform at a higher level and their 130 plus ratings puts AGES OF MAN as the clear form marker here.AGES OF MAN
Win 15/8
Rosscommon 1.50
AGES OF MAN to win by 5+ lengths at 15/2
The distance betting has been fruitful at times to boost a small odds favourite but to be fair the bookies normally pitch the distance at the extreme margin of ability and only when they look to make a possible error are they to be taken on.
They are relying on fitness not to be in place and some strong but unproven rivals and that is the angle I’m trying to exploit.
But the bookies are no mugs and will have done their research more thoroughly than my resources will stretch ….The Race’s fabric has changed somewhat with moves for other horses and the odds have lengthened to 5/2 and 11/1 for the winning distance.
My earlier enthusiasm has been tempered by the horses ridden by Racheal Blackmore and Aidan Coleman for Henry De Bromhead and Dennis Hogan standing their ground.
Nonetheless I’ve used my free bet on the winning distance.
Winning distance of AGES OF MAN
5 + lengths.@ 11/1unlucky faller Ages Of Man in Ireland.
Another maiden hurdle today.
KEEP RUNNING
Win
4.10
Bangor
Daryl Jacob rides.
Significantly this horse ran his best race on this day last year when second to a next time listed runner in france. That runner last seen winning a chase in may.
KEEP RUNNING previously placed in minor race.
Brings a good standard here if fit and ready.
Always difficult to quantify french form but this looks good enough to win on debut under decent jockey.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.