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I was impressed with sof yesterday,in his last 2 starts he has looked a different horse to the 1 who lined up at epsom.Does anyone think he will win the arc?? he has my money riding on him.
I don’t think he’ll be quite good enough I think a horse will have to run to a mark very close to 130 to win the Arc, seeing as Soldier Of Fortune’s best rating is around 126 on bottomless ground I think he’d need the same conditions again to stand a chance of getting close to 130.
Authorized’s Arc for me. Ran to (on my ratings) 126 in the Derby and won it as he liked, 127 in the Juddmonte. We know he stays and will surely be better over twelve furlongs than ten. As long as there is a proper pace to the race and if the ground is no faster than good I think Authorized will run to a better level at Longchamp than he has previously and if he does he’s going to be very difficult to beat.
I was impressed with sof yesterday,in his last 2 starts he has looked a different horse to the 1 who lined up at epsom.Does anyone think he will win the arc?? he has my money riding on him.
..my first impression of the Niel race was that he wouldn’t finish in front of Zambesi Son again, given good ground in the Arc.
I’ve backed him at a double-figure price and think he’s got a fine chance. I was prepared to see him beaten narrowly yesterday after a break and still go close in the Arc, so his win was most encouraging.
I have backed him as well but my mickey-mouse approach to gambling precludes serious study. Could some-one nevertheless explain why Authorized gets a Topspeed rating of 128 for his Derby win whereas Soldier of Fortune gets a rating of 126 for his Niel win. Is the difference explained by date/w-f-a i.e. June as opposed to September?
Sadly not a double figure price, I backed him after yesterday at 5/1. Nothing between him and Authorized imo and has had the perfect Arc prep.
Quote:
Posted: 02 Jul 2007 01:01
Great Arc trial- get on!
UnquoteThought so then, still think so- added to my bet at 6/1 before the Manduro news broke.
You can’t beat a Derby winner coming off a mid-season break and winning the key trial- as a trends man I’m all over him like a rash.
Still think Authorised will struggle simply from having too much racing to win an Arc- history is agin him.Quote:
Posted: 02 Jul 2007 01:01
Great Arc trial- get on!
UnquoteThought so then, still think so- added to my bet at 6/1 before the Manduro news broke.
You can’t beat a Derby winner coming off a mid-season break and winning the key trial- as a trends man I’m all over him like a rash.
Still think Authorised will struggle simply from having too much racing to win an Arc- history is agin him.Quote:
Posted: 02 Jul 2007 01:01
Great Arc trial- get on!
UnquoteThought so then, still think so- added to my bet at 6/1 before the Manduro news broke.
You can’t beat a Derby winner coming off a mid-season break and winning the key trial- as a trends man I’m all over him like a rash.
Still think Authorised will struggle simply from having too much racing to win an Arc- history is agin him.He’s had four races since May. He’s hardly been Finsceal Beo’d.
Listen very carefully, I will say this only once….
All of the last ten winners of the Arc had a decent break in midsummer, or in the case of Sakhee, only 2 starts:
Rail Link off mid-July to Arc Trial
Hurricane Run off end July to Arc Trial
Bago off end June to mid-August
Dalakhani off end June to Arc Trial
Marienbard off end July to Arc Trial
Sakhee off August-Arc
Sinndar off early July-Arc Trial
Montjeu off June-Arc Trial
Sagamix off April-Arc Trial
Peintre Celebre off June-Arc TrialOnly Sakhee went from the Juddmonte to the Arc, and he only had two starts before winning the Arc in 2001
I’m not saying Authorised can’t win, just that he would be unique in the recent history of the race in having run through the Summer first.
These kind of patterns are significant because our modern thoroughbreds can’t keep producing big efforts (unless they’re Peeping Fawn) without a break.Having just had a quick peak at the ante-post market, it would seem the Arc is almost becoming a Ballydoyle-fest. Quite disappointing for the biggest race on the best day of racing in the year.
For what it’s worth I quite fancy West Wind to go close. She was given an appalling ride behind Miss Lindsay on Sunday in the Vermeille Lucien Barriere, and possesses a decent turn of foot. Good ground and a strong pace might see her up there at the business end.
Authorized and Soldier of Fortune are closely matched, but I would slightly favour the former. His beating of Dylan Thomas and Notnowcato over a trip short of his best, surely has to be the strongest piece of form between the two.
If the ground came up on the quick side, and BD had already decided to route Dylan Thomas to Champion Stakes/Breeders Cup, then Zambezi Sun must represent good value. That is of course believing Pascal Bary with just how short he left him for the Niel.
Mandesha is very much out of love with the game, and if DT doesn’t turn up, it will be between the 3 year olds, which will at least have the benefit of eliminating the biased WFA.
Looking at the arc betting, it seems Mandesha will end up at no worst than 5th in the betting come 7th October, and even further up if the rains come. Seems a very poor renewal when you consider this.
If the ground at Longchamps is on the soft side on Arc day, Soldier Of Fortune has a good chance, but I will be siding with Authorized. I think he’s the one they all have to beat.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Sadly not a double figure price, I backed him after yesterday at 5/1. Nothing between him and Authorized imo and has had the perfect Arc prep.
there were 8 lengths between them at Epsom
SOF’s Irish derby win is looking very much like a "what did he beat race?" race. Hes had the right prep but his form simply isnt as strong as Authorized. Just isnt…
I know the trends are against Authorized and yes, can see the logic (i need sound logic for trends) behind them…but….hes hardly be overraced and the trainer does seem to have a magic touch at the moment
Sometimes think too much is made of horses supposed inability to peak often throughout the season. Of course they are all different (and fillies seem to be tougher) but are we sometimes looking at excuses for less than wonderful training?
AOB certainly can keep them on the go as can Stoute. no reason to suspect that PCH cannot too
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