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Quote: from Prufrock on 2:29 pm on June 6, 2006[br]
Sir Percy got to the home straight slower than Slip Anchor, Nashwan, Dr Devious, Commander-In-Chief, Benny The Dip and Sinndar, but faster than Mill Reef, Troy, Secreto, Shahrastani and Oath among horses who have won the Derby on seemingly good ground since 1970.
The leaders in a race run at a flat-out gallop would have been only a little further ahead of the leaders in this year’s Derby as they were in turn ahead of Sir Percy.<br>
A good thread and the above is very interesting imhaho
Stav,
I respect your judgement and you argue a good case for the handicap being run at less than a true pace. Without sectionals, it is difficult to dispute, perhaps Prufrock(who keeps an eye on these things) might have some data about this race. I am going on my experience of these competitive handicaps, my visual impression and my reading of the comments and analysis in the RP. <br>These races are usually run at a fair gallop and my visual impression was that this was the case, although quite a few were held up. It was a fairly hot handicap and apart from the(very easy) winner, there wasn’t a lot between most of the others as you would expect if they ran to within 10l (or 16lb) of their form. I wouldn’t assert that a spreadeagled field makes the form more reliable except in non-handicaps. In the sprint later on the card, 10l (36lb) covered almost the entire field. The RP analysis usually comments on the pace if it is less than might be expected and sometimes confirms a strong pace. In this case, there was no mention of it (much like Sherlock Holmes’ dog that didn’t bark). So, as you say it comes down to opinion. I’m a little less convinced than I was before you presented your evidence, but I believe the handicap will turn out to be very solid form, as will the Derby. We shall have to wait and see.
By the way, Stav, I was surprised that you had the second race-2yo over 6f at Epsom – as being relatively quick. I thought it was below par for the race, even allowing for the fact that this is a severe test for a 2yo even on good ground, racing downhill round a bend and then uphill with a camber throwing an inexperienced horse off-balance.
Nice to exchange views in a civilised way. Others please take note.
This is more like it – about time we had another speed figures v form debate.
But enough with the civility
Anyone who relies on speed figures is a moron and anyone who doesn’t is an imbecile.
Quote: from clivex on 2:04 pm on June 6, 2006[br]What was Maudlins "speed rating" for Septimus? Did he have his slide rule and mickey mouse clock upside down?
:o <br>
Here you go Clivex
SEPTIMUS DOES THE JOB
I’ve been wurbling on about SEPTIMUS (36) for ages, so it would have been somewhat embarrassing if he hadn’t won the Dante Stakes. Thankfully he did, and by eight lengths as well. Unfortunately, thanks to a relatively modest early pace, Septimus didn’t end up running as fast as he had last time out in France or even as a two year old. The field only picked up the pace from 6f out when they hit the better ground.
Still you can hardly complain about a runaway win in the most important Derby Trial of them all.
I think Kieran Fallon was being diplomatic about Coolmore’s other three year old colts when he told reporters after the race that he would now face a difficult choice about which one to ride in the Derby. It seems to me that if you have the choice between a doubtful stayer that ran unplaced in the Guineas, a winner of a sub-par Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and an eight length winner of the race that’s produced the last two Derby winners you don’t exactly need to think very hard.
As I see it, the Derby has boiled down to a match between Visindar and Septimus. Other horses will run of course but it’s hard to fancy them against this pair
Quote: from Aranalde on 2:55 pm on June 7, 2006[br]Anyone who relies on speed figures is a moron and anyone who doesn’t is an imbecile.
LOL – I go for the jockey’s colours meself and because pink brings out my skin-tone I backed Dylan Thomas!
"The Dante was run at a relatively modest pace…"
Au contraire, judged on sectional percentages, which put such matters into their proper context, they went a bit too quickly early on, with the result that even Septimus was not finishing strongly compared to optimum sectionals.
BLUE SPINNAKER (who won a handicap at the track in near-optimum style): 5.50% (after 88yds), 15.22% (after 308 yds), 24.78% (after 528 yds), 34.37% (after 748yds), 44.32% (after 968yds), 54.23% (after 1188yds), 63.45% (after 1408yds), 72.42% (after 1628yds), 81.58% (after 1848yds), 90.50% (after 2068yds).
SEPTIMUS: 5.48%, 15.05%, 24.42%, 33.58%, 43.17%, 52.77%, 62.11%, 71.01%, 80.15%, 89.77%.
All figures refer to the % of the horse’s overall race time that had elapsed at each sectional and are derived from TurfTrax data.
It seems as if some writers make up anything, just so long as it ties in with their preconceived notions about a horse and a race.<br>
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Quote: from stav on 12:56 pm on June 7, 2006[br]The ‘comments in running’ from that opening handicap show several clues which strongly suggest that it was not run at a true gallop….
1 Stage Gift <br>held up, 9th straight, smooth progress to lead over 2f out, soon clear, pushed out, unchallenged <br> <br> 2 Military Cross <br>pulled hard, held up well in rear, 14th straight, progress on outer over 2f out, hung left and bumped rival over 1f out, chased winner, no impression <br> <br> 3 Lake Poet <br>tracked leading pair, ridden over 2f out, outpaced when slightly hampered over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong <br> <br> 4 King´s Head <br>not much room over 8f out, settled in midfield, 8th straight, ridden over 2f out, stayed on from over 1f out, nearest finish <br> <br> 5 Burnbank <br>prominent, 4th straight, soon ridden, outpaced over 2f out, kept on same pace after <br> <br> 6 Road To Love <br>took keen hold, tracked leader, upsides 3f out, outpaced and beaten 2f out <br> <br> 7 Salute The General <br>tracked leaders, 5th straight, ridden and outpaced over 2f out, hampered over 1f out, no chance after <br> <br> 8 Gracechurch <br>held up well in rear, 13th straight, effort on inner over 2f out, one pace and no progress <br> <br> 9 London Express <br>chased leaders, 7th straight, ridden and no progress over 2f out <br> <br> 10 Charlie Tokyo <br>dwelt, held up and raced wide, 11th straight, effort over 2f out, outpaced and beaten when badly hampered over 1f out <br> <br> 11 Merveilles <br>held up well in rear, 12th straight, brief effort over 2f out, soon weakened <br> <br> 12 Regal Royale <br>held up last, plenty to do straight, ridden on wide outside over 2f out, no chance <br> <br> 13 Punta Galera <br>settled in midfield, 10th straight, ridden and struggling well over 2f out <br> <br> 14 Genari <br>led to over 2f out, weakened rapidly <br> <br> 15 Nihal <br>tracked leaders, 6th straight, weakened rapidly over 2f out
Reading these comments it certainly seems like there was an injection of pace at around the 2f marker, causing many of the runners to become outpaced before staying on again, some at the onepace. This is a telling sign of lack of instant acceleration of many of the runners, something which is prevelant in races with an uneven pace.
Another thing to consider is the fact that 13 of the 15 runners finished within 10l of the winner – this alone makes it impossible to rate the race as one to use as a benchmark.
This race, along with race 2, topped my time ratings for this meeting – so with this race being assumed as being run at a less than true gallop, the rest of the card has to be judged downwards from this.
(Edited by stav at 1:00 pm on June 7, 2006)<br>
So the whole card is dismissed as not being truly run, based on your interpretation of the first race, quote; <br> Reading these comments it certainly seems like there was an injection of pace at around the 2f marker, causing many of the runners to become outpaced before staying on again, some at the onepace. This is a telling sign of lack of instant acceleration of many of the runners, something which is prevelant in races with an uneven pace.
According to Topspeed the race, essentially a 0-94 h’cap, produced a s/f of 105, 11lbs faster than class, and normally a reliable guide to a race being truly run.<br>Your premise that a number of horses were outpaced owing to a steadily run race is also in error. The truth is the whole field was outpaced from 2 out, by just one horse, the winner, an obviously better class and rapidly improving colt.<br> Truth is, with him out of the race, none of them would have been outpaced, which paints a totally different picture.<br> The fact that Military Cross pulled hard is also meaningless when one considers that he has been regularly campaigned over 7f, and was up 3f in trip.<br> As Artemis points out, bunched finishes are far from uncommon in high class handicaps, and a quick perusal of any form book would show most to be truly run, ergo it is dangerous to assume a slow pace on those grounds alone.
The Derby, imo, was run at a reasonable pace, not outstanding nor exceedingly slow.<br> It did though, in my view, provide a reasonable 12f test, and the fact that Sir Percy finished better than all the other principals at the end of that test does nothing to suggest, to me at least, that he can’t do it again in future.  <br>But then, I haven’t written any books!:) <br>
Stav, the "seemingly good ground" is what I calculated it as being, rather than what was given officially, which is why I phrased it as I did.
But, in any case, the comparisons from yesteryear are primarily given for interest. Comparisons with races at the track in more recent years are clearly relevant and show that the contention that the early stages of this year’s Derby were run at a "one-mile canter" are a very long way wide of the mark.
I would not agree with you that the ground was significantly faster than good this year, by the way.
There seems to be far too much reliance on the subjective remarks of racereaders in some quarters: some racereaders know what they are doing, others do not.
The whole point is that the human eye can be misled by the apparent pace of a race when a bit of work on sectionals should rid us of any doubt in the matter.
Of course not, but surely a win clocking a time near the world record would be accepted as a better effort than one many seconds slower?
Wrong!
As Seb Coe, Ovett or anyone else. A lot of those middle distance races then had slow early pace but no one suggested they were less valid than an artificially set up record attempt in Zurich.
Quite the opposite <br>
Agree with a lot of Pruifrock says here
One of the reasons i am suspicious of speed ratings is that the condition of the ground (which is clearly a massive factor) is simply not or cannot be, accurately assessed to the degree required.
But going back to the original point, multiple group one winner SP, has been dismissed by some beacuse his speed rating in the derby "wasnt good".
A supposedly "poor" speed rating does little more than leave the argument open. Maudlin was not doing that. He was drawing a conclusion…
Stav<br>"Ignoring all French form", is a pretty dramatic response. But thats your choice
I think if we only take into account races run at a suppsed "true pace" then we are in trouble. I still beleive that regardless of pace, when one horse beats another it is still significant… :)
I think we will only see how good SP is through the year, he clearly has a touch of class about him, however lets hope he doesn’t turn out to be another North Light or Motivator.
JohnJ.
If we are talking about athletic performances, I think Roger Bannister’s 4-minute mile has been overrated. Clearly he was flattered having been held up off a strong pace. The performances we should be praising that day are the likes of Chattaway and Braisher. I suggest they are ones to keep an eye on in handicaps. :biggrin:
Not bad DJ ;)
Johnjo<br>I tend to agree that he does have that little something extra about him and i suppose my overall point is that i like to judge a horse by seeing how they cope with the varying challenges they face within a race rather than boiling it down to pure times<br>When SP went for the line on Saturday I was pretty confident. Ok didnt see Hala Beks jilt, but the way SP took off and the clear attitude he showed was very taking<br>Sometime i think Motivator is alittle overmaligned, but it was a great shame the derby was his peak. North Light was i think a so so horse cleverly trained and wonderfully ridden
Quote: from clivex on 12:42 pm on June 8, 2006[br]Not bad DJ ;)
Johnjo<br>I tend to agree that he does have that little something extra about him and i suppose my overall point is that i like to judge a horse by seeing how they cope with the varying challenges they face within a race rather than boiling it down to pure times<br>When SP went for the line on Saturday I was pretty confident. Ok didnt see Hala Beks jilt, but the way SP took off and the clear attitude he showed was very taking<br>Sometime i think Motivator is alittle overmaligned, but it was a great shame the derby was his peak. North Light was i think a so so horse cleverly trained and wonderfully ridden
I dont see anything wrong with Motivators win in the derby. He was a top class 3 year old and was then ran well in the eclipse and the Irish champion stakes. He might not have been as a good as the great winners but he certainly didnt leave the race down.
SHL
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