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If someone has a profitable system won’t it be a losing system before long, if he / she puts the rules to that system in public domain?
Any system that has say a strike rate of 20% and an average price of 11/2 is going to do very well.
However, if the system gets well known, in time the average price (with so many people backing it is bound to reduce. If it goes below 4/1 (with a 20% SR) it is no longer profitable.
Isn’t it therefore best to keep the system secret?
Mark
Value Is Everything
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Hi Mark,
I’ve never come across a winning system, but, if I did, I wouldn’t be telling anybody its details.
Brian
You probably don’t have a winning system and if you post it on here you will start losing.
Give it a go !
Do I have to give the rules?
Can I just put down the selections or is that not allowed?
I suppose I could put it in the Daily Lays And Plays section?
Mark
Value Is EverythingHiya mate
I have flagged up selections in the past so just "go for it!" is bang on.
However, personally, i know the "WHY" is the engine rather than the "WHAT".
Having said that why do you want to do it & what do you think you will achieve. (:twisted:’s advocate)
byefrom
carlisleGingertipster,
If you check out the number of visits to this part of the forum, you will find that there are only a few dozen people interested in looking at your system and how it fares. It is highly unlikely that any of these will lump on the selections and cause the price to collapse, even if you hit a purple patch straight away.
In this quiet corner, unless you have chanced upon something very new and profound, there is hardly any risk of your idea being stolen and used for profit by someone else.
The idea is to post up your system rules and allow others in the forum to debate whether the system has any merit. You might get some helpful and constructive advice from those who might have trodden the same pathways. There are very few original ideas in the field of horse racing and betting systems and there are a few wise heads who have helped me on this forum. Posting your system here could help you to learn something that you did not know.
Thanks Artemis but it is not members who I am concerned about.
I am sure there are people (non-members) who traul around this type of website looking for winning systems they can steal, and sell as their own.
I have looked at my system for many months, proofed it and made adjustments. But do not think it can be changed for the good anymore. The good advise I might get is far outweighed by the possibility of copying.
The trouble I have is this system relys on getting on at the right time, at the right price. So if there are too many people trying to get on, I won’t be able to get on myself. The majority of prices taken will not last long.
I do not know if this is an original idea or not, it seems so simple only needing to look at a race for a few minutes to find value bets (in true odds terms). I have looked around other sites and nothing I’ve seen comes close to this type of idea.
How many systems actually account for true value? (That is, at Even money it is value if thought to have a better than 50% chance, 4/1 20%, 10/1 9%, 33/1 3% etc). Not many.
May be it will not work over years to come? Who knows? But it takes in to account what some of the best racing form experts think. And I don’t mean me.
Mark
Value Is EverythingGingertipster,
I take your point about people stealing ideas. There are now literally hundreds of spamming tipsters about and they might steal your system and try to pass it off as their own, or give out your selections by email.
I may be naive, but I do not believe many people bother using any of these unsolicited services.As I said previously, in my experience(40years) there is nothing new under the sun in racing and betting systems, but if you have an angle on form study that you find profitable, you are probably wise to keep it to yourself.
When it eventually goes wrong, perhaps you might tell us what it is.In the meantime, I wish you the best of luck with it.
Gingertipster,
When it eventually goes wrong, perhaps you might tell us what it is.
Not "if" but "when" Artemis, I like your confidence. I might just do that.I am also a sceptic when it comes to other peoples claims.
Mark
Value Is EverythingGingertipster,
The only point I would make is that if a system is fairly simple in concept, many people will have tried it and if successful, it would have become known to quite a few people. I must have looked at hundreds of simple systems, many of which can be profitable over short periods, even for a few seasons. Eventually, they have all been shown to be unprofitable when tried for much longer periods.
Form study is different. A person who spends or invests a lot of time studying aspects of form and who is prepared to adapt to changing conditions, can make a profit. Certainly you can have a few ‘rules’ to guide you along, but they cannot be the rigid rules that nearly all systems have.
I have never been a believer in rigid systems, but I’m a great fan of a systematic approach. Maybe what you have is the latter. I’ve read a lot of your posts on the forum and I think you probably operate on those lines. It would be useful if you could give your general approach without compromising your exact method.
I have been searching for a way of using xxxx and xxxxx in a system and I now believe I have found it, what’s more it only takes a few minutes to find my selections. Xxxxx xxx xx xxxx xx xxx xxxx xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. xxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxx. Xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xx xxxxx xxxxx x xxxxxx xxx xxxxx. I have no doubt xxxxx xxxxxx xx xxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. But there are rigid rules set out to find selections. It also makes use of xxx xxxxx xx xxxx xxx xxxxxxx x xxxx xxxx (xx xxx xxxxx xxxxxx).
Mark
Edited
Value Is EverythingGingertipster
I know what your system is as you posted it on another well known forum.
Send me £1000 and I will not tell anyone else
Ginge, the problem a lot of people have with systems is that they don’t properly understand how luck works.
For example, if you have a 20% strike rate you could expect to have a long losing run of 23 over 200 bets.
If you have a negative expectation of -10% you could expect to lose 20 pts over the same 200 bets, but that won’t work out either because your expectation is -10% (+ or – 20%), so you could make a profit of 5pts or a lose of 60pts.
And the smaller the sample size the more you are exposed to luck, good and bad in equal measure.
The nature of luck and understanding it comes down to coming to terms with how randomness works. This is why systems don’t work.
Gingertipster
I know what your system is as you posted it on another well known forum.
Send me £1000 and I will not tell anyone else
I thought someone might have seen it Dolus.
Have taken it down from that site as it was too successful, the results are still there. I now regret telling everyone the rules in so much detail, but there did not seem many people interested in it anyway. And unless you copied the rules I doubt if anyone can remember them. There have been a few changes since then too.
So no, I will not be blackmailed Dolus.
Mark
Value Is EverythingGinge, the problem a lot of people have with systems is that they don’t properly understand how luck works.
For example, if you have a 20% strike rate you could expect to have a long losing run of 23 over 200 bets.
If you have a negative expectation of -10% you could expect to lose 20 pts over the same 200 bets, but that won’t work out either because your expectation is -10% (+ or – 20%), so you could make a profit of 5pts or a lose of 60pts.
And the smaller the sample size the more you are exposed to luck, good and bad in equal measure.
The nature of luck and understanding it comes down to coming to terms with how randomness works. This is why systems don’t work.
I do understand Dave, about losing runs and how often you can expect a losing run of 10 or 20 or however many to come up. Have got a copy of "Betting The Timeform way".
But the fact is even with those losing runs if a punter wins 20% of his / her bets at 4/1 a profit is made (with level stakes).
So if he is a good judge of what is and is not value, and if he only backs any horse he BELIEVES has a 20% chance at better than 4/1, he makes a profit. No matter when a losing run might occur.
Luck does not come in to "investing" but it does "gambling", I don’t gamble, I invest.
Mark
Value Is EverythingAsk any bookmaker and they will all tell you in the end that the one simple system that will, season after season cost them money is the each way doubles on the second favourite in 8 runner races.
Problems are of course getting the bets on which of course is a testament to the success of the simplest of systems.
As the bet cannot be done on the exchanges or on racecourses this has helped the fact that as most on course markets are a mirror image of exchange prices the odds on the 2nd fav in 8 runner races has always been in the punters favour.
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