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Carvillshill
The record of Niel winners is so impressive becayuse it is usually contested by the outstanding French middle-distance 3yo of that year. This year I’m not convinced there was one and a half length defeat of Youmzain leaves him with plenty to prove on form for a race like the Arc.
Quote: from The Market Man on 6:02 pm on Sep. 10, 2006[br]I don’t LAY horses but if I did I’d lay Deep Impact all day long. He’s a talking horse with a good level of form granted but winning Japanese races is way different to winning the top race in Europe arguably the world. Even his best form gives him a rating of around 125 thats still around 8 pounds behind the best of Hurricane Run’s form.
<br>Lay, lay, lay to quote Big Mac. :biggrin: <br>
To be fair, El Condor Pasa went close to winning the Arc and he wasnt deemed in the same ball park as Deep Impact.
What did everyone make of Dragon Dancer in the Niel. Anyone any idea why he has failed to run to his Derby form in 3 subsequent starts?
… Because the Derby form doesn’t mean much.
Steve
Quote: from Zorro on 7:54 am on Sep. 11, 2006[br]Look at his form, Market Man. Lincoln beat Ouija Board in the Japan Cup. Deep Impact absolutely thrashes Lincoln every time they meet. That’s just one example. His form this year is incredible. A talking horse is one with no runs on the board. He’s got double centuries all over the place.<br>
<br>You back him then, I wouldn’t touch him with the proverbial barge pole. ;)
In reference to talking horse I mean he’s been way overhyped IMO, he’s a talking horse in terms of top European racing. Visually impressive in his races, tends to suck people n.
Just my opinion guess I’ll be proved right or wrong in a few weeks time.
I have and I will, Market Man.:cool: Just trying to save you from breaking your rule and laying him.<br>Visually impressive. Times impressive. Beaten good horses. Hasn’t done it here though, therefore must be a talking horse. I see.
I think Zorro could be right on this one. Still remember when I was first getting into racing seriously reading an article instructing how I must back Silvano in the Arlington Million:biggrin:
Am certainly keen to ‘get’ Hurricane Run, he hasn’t looked the same animal this year as last, even in victory he has looked laboured. Shirocco as solid as he is, doesn’t have the potential that Deep Impact does. The only concern is the ground, with Deep Impact not being proven on softer than dead. He looks a better horse than El Condor Pasa, and there isn’t likely to be a Montjeu in this year’s Arc so he could well be the one to be on on the day.
In Hurricane Run’s defence David you could argue that he hasn’t really had his ideal conditions this season. A strongly run mile and a half on good or softer ground is when he’s showed his peak form, this season he’s been having to run in small fields and on faster ground than he’d probably ideally like.
Up until last years Arc Hurricane Run hadn’t looked outstanding either but given his conditions at Longchamp he destroyed his opposition.
If it’s not really quick ground on Arc day Hurricane Run will take some stopping.
Zorro, strictly on ratings (RPR) even Deep Impacts peak form isn’t good enough enough strictly by the book to beat Hurricane Run and this time Deep Impact is playing away from home. Ok he may prove good enough but if Hurricane Run runs to last seasons form Deep Impact is going to have to find 8 or 9 pounds. I won’t lay him but I won’t back him either.
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(Edited by The Market Man at 5:55 pm on Sep. 11, 2006)
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Quote: from stevedvg on 2:21 pm on Sep. 11, 2006[br]
What did everyone make of Dragon Dancer in the Niel. Anyone any idea why he has failed to run to his Derby form in 3 subsequent starts?
… Because the Derby form doesn’t mean much.
Steve<br>
Of course it doesn’t, Steve.<br> Sixties Icon and Dylan Thomas put 2 more nails in its coffin Saturday, didn’t they? :o
Timeform Top 10 older Horses……..<br>Hurricane Run 134<br>Deep Impact 131+ <br>Shirocco 131<br>Too be updated Thusday 14th (that’s why there is a + by Deep Impact) ;) I’ve had some @ 4/1
Quote: from deltaman on 6:49 pm on Sep. 11, 2006[br]Timeform Top 10 older Horses……..<br>Hurricane Run 134<br>Deep Impact 131+   <br>Shirocco 131<br>Too be updated Thusday 14th (that’s why there is a + by Deep Impact)     ;)   I’ve had some @ 4/1
Thats Timeform though the same people that rated Dubai Millennium 140 and Celtic Swing 138.
Quote: from The Market Man on 7:00 pm on Sep. 11, 2006[br]
Thats Timeform though the same people that rated Dubai Millennium 140 and Celtic Swing 138.
yep! the same clowns that have ‘George Washington’ 129<br>’Dylan Thomas’ 127<br>
I am very disrespectful of ratings Market Man. Even the Racing Post’s. Some of their assessments seem far too strongly influenced by performances close to the handicapper’s home. I’ve spoken to Far Eastern handicappers who are convinced Deep Impact is far better than he’s been officially rated, and that if he’d been running in Europe he’d be well clear in the ratings already. <br>They may being parochial too of course, but we’ll find out soon. I just don’t think this horse should be laid because I honestly think he may outclass even this field.
If you were to back these horses just on their displays visually, Deep Impact would be odds on favourite.. Ground is a big worry, I don’t think the trip is an issue, just whether Take keeps him close enough as I imagine the softer ground will blunt his finishing speed somewhat…
Anyone else think Pride gets constantly overlooked?
The Post today Re: ‘Deep Impact’……Scientitsts did a study on his stride and pattern….. the same as ‘Secretariet’ :o
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Quote: from deltaman on 10:58 am on Sep. 12, 2006[br]The Post today Re: ‘Deep Impact’……Scientitsts did a study on his stride and pattern….. the same as ‘Secretariet’     :o
<br>That has already been posted, in an earlier thread dedicated to the Japanese horse.
Yeah O.K. I’ll fall for it…..Secretariet was the most exciting horse in training (of any age) so at the age of two he was crowned ‘Horses of the Year’… he went on to win the Belmont by 31 lenghts.<br>I won’t ever mention the flat again until the end of November, and The Breeders Cup and Nad al Sheba. ;)
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