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The scene: Baker Street, a misty November afternoon. Channel 4 racing on the television.
Holmes: Monbeg Dude! Singular horse, Watson! I’ve been squinting at the form through my magnifying glass since first light and I couldn’t find it.
Mrs Hudson: I ‘ad a tanner on him, Mr Holmes! Got him on Betfair at 139/1! Liked the name!
Holmes: Pink ‘Un tells me the ground’s good to soft.
Mrs Hudson: Ground ain’t good soft, though! If it’s good soft then I’m Moriarty!
Watson: I’m reading ‘Secrets of Pricewise’ but it didn’t tell me how to find Mr Dude.
Holmes: Ah, Pricewise! The Napoleon of tipping!
Monbeg Dude is lightly raced, only 4 starts over fences prior to today so more improvement always possible. Ran as if amiss final start last season when pulled up. Still travelling well enough 4 out on reappearance (not first error) unseating 4 out on this course. Not ideal, and needed to jump better, but at least it showed he acts reasonably on track. Those two starts mean there was only two other chase starts for the handicapper to go by. I backed Monbeg Dude at good odds at Newbury last January, after he won a handicap on chasing debut. Beaten just a neck and head by Glen’s Boy and Ikorodu Road. Form of that run enough to see him joint top-rated by Timeform today! Staying on strongly in a well-run 3 mile contest on good-soft. Had been runner-up on only heavy ground start, in bumper on debut under rules. Only 4/1, which suggests connections believed he goes on the surface.. Also winner of an Irish point. Half-brother to a 19f winner by Anshan; who’s nowhere near the stamina influence of Monbeg Dude’s sire – Northumberland Plate winner Witness Box. Cheltenham Gold Cup second Take The Stand and ex-good but now temperamental 3 miler Wymott his best progeny… So this Dude should stay a lot further than his half-brother. Trainer Scudamore had 2 winners in last 8 starts @ 4/1 and 28/1 suggesting he’s in good form.
Did Monbeg Dude have the best chance beforehand Prof? NO! The PU and UR definite negatives, although the UR run not without encouragement. Did Monbeg Dude have a better than 3% (33/1) chance? Ohhhhh Yesss!
Value Is Everything
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