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One of the things that has contributed to my vast fortune from betting *chuckles sadly* is following improving horses.
Seeyouatmidnight’s performance today compared to last year in the Colin Parker looked chalk and cheese. He led from the off, going a fair lick and jumping well for the most part (I’ve a slight concern at just how ‘economical’ he is with his forelegs – he brushed through the first three then picked up his accuracy to be mostly spot on, with another couple of lowish jumps late on).
Bristol de Mai never looked like giving him any kind of race, coming under pressure a long way out – probably purely down to the pace the race was run at – and his jockey rightly did not persevere. That exaggerated Seeyouatmidnight’s winning distance, but he was most impressive.
My first thought was what has he been doing running in the likes of the Scottish National? That performance looked tailor-made for one of the big Cheltenham two-and-a-half milers, and maybe even a Ryanair. But his trainer is talking Gold Cup. Hennessy was mentioned but apparently Brian Hughes said he shouldn’t run in handicaps now.
Thoughts?
(You can see the race on Bet365: click at top right on SERVICES/LIVE STREAMING/RESULTS ARCHIVE)
He won a Rendlesham in the mud as a novice hurdler, so there’s never been any doubt about his staying ability. I think he’s versatile, stays well but has tactical pace at shorter distances. Not up to Gold Cup standard though (calm down Sandy!).
Definitely stays, Rob, but does a stamina test see him at his best? Might be a stone better at shorter. Yard won’t find out unless they give him a proper trial at the trip.
Had a few ‘conversations’ with VTC about this horse last season. I appeared to be in a minority of one in seeing him as a JLT horse. There was plenty to suggest he might be better at shorter until of course we had the Scottish Grand National performance.
I was amazed that Jacob allowed him to make the running today. Not his first inept ride of the weekend.
Not sure he had much choice Stilvi, after they jumped off, at least. He’d need to have bustled him along a fair old bit to get to the leader.
I wondered more than once of BDM was having an off day. Never looked comfortable to me. But the winner was most convincing. Would really like to see him kept at that trip on stiff tracks for now – might be a revelation.
Very impressive.
Shame he will not go for the Hennesey because I could not see him getting beat.
I don’t think he would win or even get placed in a Gold Cup as although he is very good I don’t think he would be top top class especially with Thistlecrack and Coneygree about.Very taken with that for fto – safe, economical fencing, without a hint of the mistakes that occurred last year, and he really poured it on from the bottom of the hill. I liked what I saw in The Dipper last year as well, which was a top-drawer performance. The RSA though was a disappointing run, so I put him down as a soft/heavy performer. Since then he’s shown he can go on pretty much anything, and is totally versatile in terms of distance. Am remembering that old adage – a very good 2.5 miler can be a good stayer as well (e.g. Gay Trip etc … ). All options open, I think – 2.5– 4.5, and I really don’t think it’ll matter. Although they’re talking about shelving earlier plans, my guess is that they will think about it but that the Hennessy will then come back into play – or, they might take a look at the Bet Victor. After all, the programme book for top-class staying chasers is an obvious one, as is the strength/depth of the likely opposition. Smad and Saphir v Coneygree/Thistlecrack/CC etc?
As for BDM, this performance reminded me a lot of the one at Sandown last December, where he was totally out-gunned by Ar Mad from the off, and also made mistakes. I think he’s best when he’s up with the pace or leading, and that he makes fewer mistakes when he’s ridden that way. Today though I’d say he would have been hard pressed to have taken closer order early on, even if DJ had asked him to. Just met a better horse. Not been a good couple of days for NTD’s stable stars, what with Ballyoptic yesterday as well – hopefully he’s ok today, anyone know?
Seeyouatmidnight was the top speed figure 119 from yesterday’s 4 meetings, the best recent figure I have for him is 130, which is still short of the +150 needed to win the Gold cup.
NH Speed figures:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3rVp0WNvwn8aGp5VXAxZlJ4YjQMike.
Thanks, Mike. And thanks for the latest sheet (good to see my long range Champ Chase outsider, Fox Norton, at the top)
I was dubious about SYAM’s staying ability after his WH run in 2015 when Cole Harden won. He ran a super race but seemed to then fade badly in the last furlong or so. The Scottish National run put me right. SYAM certainly served it up to Blaklion over 2 1/2 miles last NYD in Heavy going so he seems a pretty versatile performer.
My favourite horse in training by some way, and that yesterday was the best yet, chuffed to bits with him.
I’m not getting carried away though by talk of Gold Cups at this stage though. As stilvi mentioned, we had a fair few chats about him last year, and I was also of the opinion that The JLT was the race for him, as I had him down as definite non stayer. That run in The Scottish National soon proved me wrong though, and I was never happier to be wrong.
I just have the concern that he’s now laid up with the pace in two Championship races at The Festival, and been found wanting on both occasions. Again, I’d love to be very wrong, but The Gold Cup on (expected) good ground might be a step too far…………….though, again, I’d love to be wrong once more, not least with because of my vouchers on him for up to 270’s for The Gold Cup.
Sandy Thomson was interviewed at Musselburgh yesterday and I understand he has campaign lined up for Seeyouatmidnight of Betfair Chase, King George VI Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Sandy Thomson was interviewed at Musselburgh yesterday and I understand he has campaign lined up for Seeyouatmidnight of Betfair Chase, King George VI Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Keeping a low profile then :)
IMO this horse is a top top class animal BUT
and it is a big BUT for me he is a two and a half miler. At championship level he could win a Ryaniar but I very much doubt he will win a Gold Cup.
As I say it is just my opinion but I think his best performance evr was at Cheltenham on NYD of two five!! that is when he looked a class act!! (And I was there to see it!!)
Got an entry this weekend in a Hunters Chase at Musselburgh.
Great to see him back from retirement, and fingers crossed that it goes well.
He’s not going to make it this weekend, but the plan is for him to run at Kelso and a P2P, in order to qualify for The Foxhunter at Cheltenham.
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