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Thought I would start a thread with my thoughts and predictions across the 2015 flat season.
Monday 6th April:
Just the one selection on Monday. In the 2.10 at Redcar, I like Reggie Bond in this contest.
Looked progressive on turf last season and put up a couple of decent performances to win at Haydock and run well at Doncaster. Has continued to run well on the Aw in recent weeks, though it has been a little keen in its races.I think the slower pace of AW races don’t suit this horse as much as a turf race with a decent field like tomorrow. I expect it to settle better tomorrow and maybe not sit as close to the pace as it has recently. I still believe this horse has further improvement to come and is capable of winning off this kind of mark. Favourite Treat likes to bowl along up front and can hopefully assist with a good pace here.
Main threat is Lady Crossmar and whilst also progressive, I have my doubts a straight mile with decent pace will be completely in her favour tomorrow.
REGGIE BOND 1pt win 4/1
Tuesday 7th April:
Two selections at Pontefract tomorrow.
4.00 – I think the ground could be the question to this race . Astronereus looks the progressive horse of the race and ended last season with a excellent effort over 12f at Ascot. Not entirely convinced the drop back to 10f is ideal and I always feel this stable are very patient with the horses, at the prices, I would rather take on tomorrow.
Gothic has ability but rarely seems to put it all together, this could be the year it turns its potential into ability. Stepping Ahead is starting to look well handicapped and will go well if in similar form to start of last season, however, its final four runs of last season were average at best, so a little to prove for me.
I thought Sennockian Star ran quite well at Chelmsford last time out in a race that didn’t really suit, it still don’t quite seem at its best at present and may need quicker ground.
If the ground has genuine cut in it tomorrow, my selection is Latenightrequest . Really progressive last season and turned in some very impressive performances on soft ground at Doncaster and Pontefract last season. Soft ground looks to be the key and with the excellent Jack Garrity taking 5lb off, I think this horse can continue its upward curve tomorrow.Latenightrequest 1pt win @ 10/1
4.30 – An average looking maiden with the possible exception of Tohfa who turned in three good performances last year. However, the current price of around 2/1 looks about right and he could shorten further on the day. The selection in this is a very speculative one, but at a very nice price. I thought Taffetta shaped with promise on its debut last season, it got caught in trouble around 1f from home and would have arguably been a length or two closer. The form of this maiden has turned out ok, it thrown up 2-3 winners later in the season. Second run it was slowly away and could never get involved and a line needs drawing through this run, but considering the slow start and never really asked many questions, it was still not actually beaten that far. Again this maiden has thrown up a decent level of from with 3-4 horses going on to win since then. From a sire who improved with age and racing, I am hoping this horse has a better level of ability than it has shown so far.
Taffetta 1pt EW @ 33/1
An energy sapping day at Ponte today. First selection offered little , however, got Taffetta home for the place at 33/1 and she ran a cracking race to confirm the promise from her maidens last season.
Current standings + £78 over first two days
Back with a couple of selections after a couple of days of no financial interest.
Friday 10th of April
1.30 Leicester – competitive handicap wher I am taking a chance on Our Queenie at the prices. Her best efforts came early last season and she handles most grounds, but a bit of cut might be ideal at Leicestwr tomorrow. Starting to look reasonably well handicapped with 7lb claimed aboard tomorrow, not familiar with the jockey but the Hannon team normally use good young apprentices. I think a stiff 7f with a bit of cut looks the optimum for her tomorrow and not sure where else she goes if not very competitive in this tomorrow. The race seems to have a good amount pace with a number of prominent runners, main danger could be Wilde Inspiration.
Our Queenie – 1pt win 8/1
3.50 Leicester – Good looking handicap with some nice pieces of progressive form on offer. The Godolphin horse looks way too short for my liking here, keen to take him on with the Hannon horse again in Belgrade. Step up to 10f looks ideal and form of its last two races stands up well. Opening mark here of 79 looks very reasonable and I expect a good run tomorrow. Main danger in my view is Verismo, ran well in maiden defeats last season before winning its maiden stepped up in trip to 12f, drop back in trip should not be an issue and is feared most.
Belgrade 1pt win at 5/1
Don’t understand the betting in the 3.50 at Leicester.
The Godolphin horse it seems people want to back at any price. Verismo drifted from 6s to 12s last night and has comeback in. Mustard has come in from 9/2 to 7/2, whilst my selection Belgrade has gone from 5 out to a current price of 20s!!
Very strange!
Frustrating day. Our Queenie just a bad selection.
Belgrade drifted to 22/1 at one point this morning, was tempted to go back in Ew but didn’t and ran decent to finish second. Frustrating to get the fancied horses beaten to then get done by an outsider. No idea at all where the money from Ocenographer came from, just a bizarre betting heat!
Update -£42
Saturday 11th of April
Two selections tomorrow.
2.45 Newcastle – My Name Is Rio 1pt win at 7/1
Looks a progressive and lightly raced sprinter who should improve further this season. Trip and ground seem fine and expect it to be bang there tomorrow. If the ground has genuine cut, then may have an Ew saver on Barkston Ash who tuned in some very impressive performances last season ,with some juice in the ground and is coming down to a more attractive mark.3-00 Lingfield – Trip to Paris 1pt win at 4/1
My first notebook horse of the season, held up off a sedate pace in the Roseberry, that performance requires marking up. Still relatively lightly raced, an extra furlong and track which races quicker than Kempton here should suit. Not much to find with the likes of Gold Trail and Fire Fighting here, this mark looks workable for a horse who I think is improving with racing and yard in decent enough form.Frustrating day. Our Queenie just a bad selection.
Belgrade drifted to 22/1 at one point this morning, was tempted to go back in Ew but didn’t and ran decent to finish second. Frustrating to get the fancied horses beaten to then get done by an outsider. No idea at all where the money from Ocenographer came from, just a bizarre betting heat!
Update -£42
The punters still seem to love Godolphin. Personally, I can’t remember the last time I backed one of theirs. I have a particular wariness about their maiden 2yo winners next time up and their 3yo’s in general.
Charlie Appleby has had a good spell on the all weather with his older horses but I never feel there is much value to be had with backing him away from the all weather.
Looking at it last night Mustard caught my eye at 4/1 but Stoute has had it quiet this season and a few of his horses are said to have needed more time and are doubtful for the classics or missing intended trials and going straight to the race. In the circumstances it was no bet for me.
I admire your initiative in taking on the odds on favourite and it will pay dividends eventually by avoiding the short priced ones.
Best of luck with the thread.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Update – one winner today with Trip to Paris u der a cute ride by Atzeni. First selection My Name Is RIo ran decent enough, may have needed the run but was very well backed and be worth following this season.
Thread stands at + £258
Wednesday 15th of April.
Just the one selection, I won’t go into detail as race has been discussed in detail.
Lady Correspondent 1 pt win at 5/1.
Was tempted to put up Home of the Brave as I really like this horse and it’s one my list of horses to follow from last season. However, it may be more of a sprinter long term and the Gosden colt looks potentially very good.
Thursday 16th of April:
Two selections today at Newmarket.
1pt Moheet in the Craven @ 4/1
1pt Mohatem in the 5.40 @ 7/2Disappointing run from Lady Correspondent yesterday takes the updated thread to +£198
Saturday 18th of April.
Thread currently stands at +£78
Three selections tomorrow, starting in the Spring Cup at Newbury. Quite a few in this I don’t actually fancy, Gabrial will be dangerous and 6lb rise looks workable, though he is not the most reliable horse to follow up a good performance. Buckstay is solid and likely to run its race. However, selection is Highland Colori for this. Found life difficult at Listed and Group level last season, ran a couple of good races back in handicap company and now back down to a competitive mark. Would prefer this to be 7f rather than a mile, but was won over a mile and versatile ground wise with stable in great form.
Highland Colori 1pt Ew at 20/1
Thirsk 4.30 – I like the look of Kelinni in this, it’s performance at Musselburgh last time needs marking up aa it made good headway from way off the pace, before not seeing the race out over 14f. Travels well in its races and recent drop of a couple of pounds over last 2/3 races will help.
Kelinni 2pt win 8/1
5.05 Thirsk – chance taken on Bowsen Fred in this. Looked progressive last season and I think having a good pace to chase here will suit. Looks on a good mark for the season ahead and hoping the yard have it fully tuned up for tomorrow. Snap Shots could be main danger as has some good pieces of form from last season and pacey type.
Bowden Fred 1pt win 10/1
Nice winner with Kelinni doing the business at a nice 8/1 taken last night. Bit frustrating I never backed Bowsen Fred Ew as drifted to 14s to run well in 3rd.
Thread update +£598 so far
Monday 20th of April – Ante Post Selection
Chester Cup
I have been following the selection for the last 18 months and come close to a nice pay day on a couple of occasions from this horse.
The horse in question is Duke of Clarence. It is on the comeback trail after a minor injury last season, hopefully, it still has the same ability as before the injury when it looked very progressive over distance races.I think about 16f-18f is perfect for this horse and it ran well in this race on debut last season. Looking for a good draw to enable the horse to sit just off the pace, I’m very hopeful of this horse resuming its progression in 2015.
Duke of Clarence – 2pt EW at 16/1
Monday 20th of April – Ante Post Selection
Chester Cup
I have been following the selection for the last 18 months and come close to a nice pay day on a couple of occasions from this horse.
The horse in question is Duke of Clarence. It is on the comeback trail after a minor injury last season, hopefully, it still has the same ability as before the injury when it looked very progressive over distance races.I think about 16f-18f is perfect for this horse and it ran well in this race on debut last season. Looking for a good draw to enable the horse to sit just off the pace, I’m very hopeful of this horse resuming its progression in 2015.
Duke of Clarence – 2pt EW at 16/1
One who catches my eye is Moscato from the Mark Prescott stable. The horse did absolutely nothing as a two year old but went from 61 to 87 in the rankings last year. He was well placed winning small two mile handicaps but now that he’s four he may just improve again and he’s won four times at two miles, so you would think he’ll like this trip at Chester. A good draw will be vital of course and you have to hope the trainer will have him straight enough but at 25/1 it’s worth a risk that this horse may be better than he’s shown so far in his career.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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