Sectional Times by Simon Rowlands

[Steeplechasing]

Jockeys don’t know how to ride efficiently with any great precision or repeatability.

A bold statement, Simon. I don’t follow the flat closely enough to make informed comment, but is it reasonable to say that those jocks specialising in AW are not regarded as being at the top of their profession? If sectionals for all tracks ever did arrive in the UK, would you expect to gather more reliable data on jockeys?

[seethesun]

Yeats – I would say my edge has been over the last 3-4 seasons, it’s mainly through studying races and experience over time. I’m not going to get involved in the bookies won’t take my bet discussion. I use bet365 and never had an issue, my stakes are likely lower than yours at around £50-£200 and had success for the last 2-3 years with no problem.

As for the edge itself, it is mainly through race watching and looking for specific scenarios. Sectional timing, in my opinion, will eventually open these scenarios up to everyone who pays it enough interest.

I will give you two example horses from last season. One is my user name See The Sun, it’s first run of the season at Pontefract went massively under the radar. It was 6f on soft ground and it set a strong pace whilst carrying weight to rivals and just got done on the line. It then went to Chester with wide draw and enough reasons to make it a watching brief. However, next run was the one to be one, back on flat track and with better ground and it got the job done at 20/1.

Next horse is Almargo, I won’t go into detail with this one, but the key run was first turf start at Musselburgh. A less well handicapped horse would have simply faded down the field, yet this horse got into a battle on front end and still finished 4/12 and the rest is history as far as its season went.

So there is an angle there if your willing to spend the time looking for it and you can still get decent value and bets on. Sectional timing won’t reveal this all and straight away, but I think it will reveal far more of these scenarios over time and prices and margins will erode.

[Prufrock]

Joe: judging the difference between 35 mph and 36 mph is essentially impossible to do repeatedly and precisely on horseback when the speed of the surface, qualities of horses and course/distances themselves vary so much (though Steve Cauthen got remarkably close to perfection, IMO), and yet that is more than enough to make the difference between winning and finishing out the back.

So jockeys tend to find the general circumstances of a race dictated to them and some adjust better or worse than others. I actually think jockeyship on AW may be at an all-time high: there’s more of it (so jockeys get more practice) and it’s more important (so better jockeys give it a go and lesser jockeys have more incentive to improve). Adam Kirby and George Baker are excellent jockeys, IMO, but not superhuman enough to judge sectionals with the precision required to render sectionals themselves obsolete.

I just ran the numbers for jockey efficiency for Nov 2014 to present. Martin Harley was still (just) top. Ryan Moore was some way down. Ryan Moore is a better jockey than Martin Harley, but anyone taking sectionals on AW won’t be amazed by that conclusion. Judging pace at tracks he rides at relatively infrequently is not always Moore’s strongest point. He makes up for it, and some, in many other ways and contexts.

Simon

[Steeplechasing]

Enlightening, as ever, Simon, thanks.

[ricky lake]

Thanks Pru …much appreciated for the work

Im going to have a good study

Im sitting out the flat …and I never watch the dross (AW)

but will be very interested to see what this is all about

well D one Sir

[Prufrock]

For Joe:

https://www.timeform.com/racing/Articles/Rowleyfile-Investigates-Jockey-efficiency-and-sectionals

[Steeplechasing]

Thanks, Simon, nice work, and very interesting. I suspect that, with some refinement, perhaps based on SP, trainer/jockey bookings etc (pacemaking?), that there is an edge to be found on the jockey angle.

I just checked Harley on returns to £1 at SP. The number of mounts he’s had on turf/AW, differ by just 11, yet his AW loss is £80 compared with almost £400 on turf.

[Kenh]

You may (or may not) be interested in my review of Simon’s book. https://turfguide.wordpress.com/

[Author]

Posts