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Scottish National

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  • #1444
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Hi folks,

    Tomorrow is the Scottish National at Ayr, a chance for redemption for those unfortunate early departures at Aintree, and an opportunity for those who didn’t get in to prove their worth.

    That sounds a bit cynical, I think it’s a cracking race, and it’s one I always look forward to. This year’s looks particularly tight, and I was just wondering what people think about it in terms of a winner?

    Personally, I think Nine De Sivola has to be factored in. He’ll be running at 6lbs less than he was when he was a 1L 2nd in the Irish National, was 2nd in the Eidur as well and was definitely going to go close in the NH Trophy when he came down. Only concern is a slight question mark on the ground.

    I also think Parson’s Legacy will feature strongly. A good 2nd in the Kim Muir, will take to the ground and has won a Class 1 (over 3m2f) already this term. Also seems to like having Richard Johnson on his back.

    (Edited by Friggo at 12:34 pm on April 20, 2007)

    #53468
    dave 22
    Member
    • Total Posts 339

    I think Parsons Legacy will win

    #53469
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3087

    <br>I was sat next to Richard Johnson on a Cheltenham preview panel last year and when I tipped Parsons Legacy for the 2006 Kim Muir, he was utterly scornful, dismissed the horse and told the audience I’d lost the plot. Mind you he was right as he finished 9th that time.

    He does seem in better form this season, but he’s not exactly reliable and his good runs are usually followed by a heavy defeat.

    AP

    #53470
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17722

    Friggo

    I wouldn’t worry too much about the ground for Nine de Sivola, it was quite fast when he was 2nd in the Irish GN. <br>RP online have it as g/f on times.

    #53471
    heffo
    Member
    • Total Posts 319

    I’ve no strong fancy but I’d give Ferdy Murphy’s other runner, Hot Weld a small squeek at a nice e/w price, despite that sequence of 3 PUs.<br>By the way can someone tell me if Ferdy and Pat Murphy are brothers, they look very similar anyway.

    #53472
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3087

    Quote: from heffo on 1:50 pm on April 20, 2007[

    By the way can someone tell me if Ferdy and Pat Murphy are brothers

    <br>Definitely not!

    AP

    #53473
    DannyDanny
    Member
    • Total Posts 790

    I fancy Strong Resolve E.W but realisticly i don’t think it will win.

    Idle Talk interests me how good is he when a jockey stays on him for the whole of the race? Don McCain  obviously rates it highly or he wouldn’t have entered it in the National and Gold Cup anyone think it has a chance.

    #53474
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Danny, I’d find it hard to fancy a horse with form figures UUU to get round. He may well be very good, but 11-10 and strong jumping concerns are enough to make me bypass him.

    #53475
    doyley
    Participant
    • Total Posts 567

    Hello,

    I cannot believe PRINCE OF SLANE’s price on Betfarce, I took a slice of 210 yesterday.<br>The horse ran reasonably well against a well treated Elvis Returns.<br>Has won over 3m 6f on G/F, and the trainer has been quoted that he considers the horse a Scottish GN candidate.<br>OK this season’s runs’ haven’t set the world alight, but they haven’t been that bad either.

    ROSS COMM will like the ground & distance, about 36/1, good chance.

    Bear in mind, there is nothing spectacular in the race [as usual:) ], and N.D. SIVOLA may find this a bit quick after his recent exertions. The likely winner, but 5/1 a bit skinny.

    regards,

    doyley

    #53476
    lekha85lekha85
    Participant
    • Total Posts 330

    Not that I’m biased but Strong Resolve and Catch The Perk e/w will have to be my choices ;)

    #53477
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    I quite like the look of Classic Capers.

    #53478
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Parsons legacy for me. Not exactly had a hard season and the ground has to be a big factor today

    #53479
    Anzum
    Member
    • Total Posts 256

    If Nine De Sivola runs to its best I think it will win.

    Took a bit of 25/1 on Another Rum.  Sign of a return to form last time.  Loves the track and the ground and dropped in the weights from when it was placed in the race a couple of years ago.  

    Looks an open renewal.

    #53480
    ScotiaScotia
    Member
    • Total Posts 111

    Strong Resolve ridden today by Tom Scudamore could be worth a wee e/w nibble.

    Tom’s dad Peter may have played his part in suggesting this one to Tom:biggrin:  You can’t rule out Catch The Perk as another from Lucindas stable.

    Parsons Legacy for me and a saver on above.

    Good luck all

    #53481
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 686

    Hi all, another good Saturday big race thread.<br>Checked out the big race trends

    four of the last five winners had carried no more than 10-6.

    Looking at the last ten years of this race they have all been won by horses placed or at least placed 5th in their previous run.

    Nothing older than ten won in the last ten years.

    No more than six runs that season 9/10

    9 outta 10 had a good class chase under their belt in the previous year.<br>Another Rum ticks a lot of the boxes although falling out of the official rating profile at 128<br>(8/10 rated between 132 and 143 other two were higher) <br>Besides Run for Paddy(last years winner) Another Rum is the Only Horse in the race with Course- Distance, <br>with a distance win at Cheltenham 13 months ago on decisive good ground.

    The other two which interest me is Ferdy Murphys two<br>Nine De Sivola and Hot Weld even more interesting if G.Lee was on the other Horse.

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