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Cannot believe Merigo did not run out of the HCap last year! Not a chance of that when he is nigh on a stone wrong this time
Looking at last years card, Meanus Dandy had an OR of 128 and carried 10.1; Merigo had an OR of 127 and carried 10.0, so I’d assume that he was running from within the handicap? I backed him last year and I’m sure I wouldn’t have done so if he’d been way out the handicap.
When iris de balme won it was 19 pounds out of the handicap, most were out of it
In that race, and it could be a similar story this year with only a handfull running off their true weights so it wouldn’t surprise me if a one from out of the handicap was to win. Infact I’ve had a sneeky few quid on iris this year, I know it’s just back from two years out but it’s worth the chance at 95/1Moe: Cheers, that helps, wouldn’t give MERIGO a hope this year as Iris de Balme was a total ‘set up’ from an excellent yard that like a tilt at the ring
I do agree curran liked the odd set up, I just feel its done it once and could again even if it’s a remote chance : )
Moe: Cheers, that helps, wouldn’t give MERIGO a hope this year as Iris de Balme was a total ‘set up’ from an excellent yard that like a tilt at the ring
Iris DB has nothing to do with it. Merigo was raised 10lbs for his win last year, to a mark of 137, with which he was balloted out of Aintree. He’s set to run here off, effectively, 142. If like me you think he was still well-in off a mark of 137 and would have had a great chance if getting in at aintree off around 140, then a mark of 142 means he still has a massive chance here, particularly as this field is packed full of dross. He had this race won at halfway last year.
I think Iris De Balme was 26 pounds out of the handicap when he won!
I backed No Panic at 66s yesterday with PP – paying first 5 places.
I topped it up at lunchtime with Uncle Joes at 100s – first 4 places. Both each way. I know he is miles out of the handicap but I think he might nick a place like last year.
However, agree with BB, what’s not to like about Merigo!
One horse I do like from out of the handicap is Be There In Five. He looks the sort of horse that’ll stay, especially at a track that’s a bit less testing that Cheltenham! He’s on the upgrade, and I think the 20s on offer in some places is great ew value. Plus, he’s only got three pounds against him, so it’s certainly not a total lost cause. Can see him running a big race.
My e/w two against the field are
Neptune Collonges
Be There In FiveTwitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Fair Along
– Outpaced and stayed on in the Spinal Research. Staying on in Aon against What A Friend.
Blazing Bailey
– lugging weight and out paced in the same race. Distance and racing weight should see him progress
Ouzbeck
highest RPR over 28f (Summer National winner) and since dropped backed to 26f then 24f….33f logically will see him at his best.
Everyone seems to think Neptune Collonges is there to keep the weight down for The Minack, but I reckon he’s in it to win [and I hope he does]. Not sure about PN’s record in the race though [not good]. Where’s beckster when you need her?
Everyone seems to think Neptune Collonges is there to keep the weight down for The Minack, but I reckon he’s in it to win [and I hope he does]. Not sure about PN’s record in the race though [not good]. Where’s beckster when you need her?
I think people are just trying to be realistic. Grey Abbey was 20lbs well in when he hosed up off top weight and while Neptune has his price, theres hardly any improvement likely to come from him. You have to hope that the rest of the field don’t progress past him handicap-wise. Maybe he’s hiding 8lbs in the last 4 furlongs at Ayr? Good luck with your horse!
Second in the Sun Alliance to Alberta’s Run in 2008, Roll Along looks interesting to me; a performance, RP-rated just 3pts lower than the winner, Alberta’s Run.
He’s now 27lbs lower than his highest handicap rating, (35lbs lower than Alberta’s Run’s) and 16lbs below his highest win handicap mark. If he could get close to soundness and fitness, over 4 miles, such a weight advantage, he would have to have a chance.
It’s hard to see Nepture Collonges winning, as this would probably need improvement from his current rating of 168. I have long had a soft spot for Fair Along and from just in the handicap this may just be his day.
I like Merigo, Always Right and I also think Emma Lavelle’s Ouzbeck is the dark one @ 20/1+
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