The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Scottish National 2024

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Scottish National 2024

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 38 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1688953
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Entries………………

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/3/ayr/2024-04-20/863299

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/scottish-grand-national/winner

    Very difficult to take a strong view on this so far out, and with so many of them holding alternative engagements at Aintree and Sandown.

    There’s usually a good few in the entries for this from Elliott, but as expected, quite a few Mullins entries this year too.

    Galvin could be very interesting, certainly with the prospect of him not getting his ground at Aintree, though it’s hardly certain for him to get it at Ayr either. Of the Mullins contenders, I like Ontheropes, but he’s also got two entries over the National Fences, as well as Sandown, so hard to bet him for this with any confidence.

    The one who really jumps out to me is My Silver Lining. Very consistent this season, and the trip, along with her experience in competitive big field handicaps, had me thinking she was too big at 16’s. Unfortunately, she’s another with the option of Sandown.

    Could be here all day going over those with multiple entries, but I’m really keen on The Skelton pair, Ballygriffincottage and Le Milos. Ballygriffincottage runs tomorrow at Warwick, which looks to me that Sandown is the more likely target. The market suggests that Le Milos is also more likely to head there, but there’s something about this option that really appeals. He’s 33’s, on a fair looking mark, and he was subject of a fair amount of support for The Pertemps. Former Coral Gold Cup winner, and he really appeals to me here. If he doesn’t get an entry for The Freebooter at Aintree, I might just take some of that 33’s

    Peter Bowen has a couple of interesting ones in there, with Courtland, and Punitive, both big prices, and although just the one win in this, I always take an interest in anything he sends here.

    Egbert is way too big for me at 33’s. He’s had a decent season already, this is the plan, and this is a race that Alan King takes very seriously. On verge of adding him.

    Long term fancies for this were Beauport and Flower of Scotland. Beauports win at Warwick without a bean on, hurt, and I can’t rule out a repeat here, but in the end, my first bet is on the Sandy Thomson horse.

    Having bet the stable regularly for years, this was a season where I pulled back a bit. However, Flower of Scotland makes plenty of appeal. Unless the ground goes dramatically against her, she should run here. She ran poorly on seasonal debut, but the yards runners more often than not need the outing, and a lot of the yards runners then were particularly bad then. Travelled well for a long way in The Eider, ran over a trip way too short at Carlisle on Saturday.

    Shes now back to her last winning mark, when she won over four miles at Kelso, looks certain to come here, and surely won’t be too quick underfoot for her. I think she’s worth a go, and from early shortlist, she’s the first bet

    Shortlist
    Egbert
    Le Milos
    My Silver Lining

    Flower of Scotland 66’s EW 5Pls

    #1688955
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5712

    Def see Flower of Scotland as a nice play , owner love this meeting however Richard’s has said Famous Bridge will likely come here , if he really believes that this horse can win a Grand National then he should be winning this

    #1688956
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7208

    Doubtful that Flower Of Scotland gets in off its mark.

    #1688957
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7208

    My Silver Lining 14-1 ew 5 places

    #1689011
    Avatar photorobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7243

    Had an eye on this race for Your Own Story 33/1 who made a promising belated comeback at Newcastle and a run at Warwick tomorrow will tell us more. A creditable sixth in this last year as 6 year old, looks best with cut in the ground and we’ve had plenty of rain in Scotland with more forecast in the next few days. May need a few to come out to get a run but plenty of the others have alternatives.

    #1690639
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7208

    My ew 5 place picks…

    Mr Incredible 11-1
    My Silver Lining 14-1

    Might add one more, I’ll see.

    #1690642
    Avatar photoWilts
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1548

    Early punt, and it is a punt :whistle:

    Elvis Mail e/w 50s (1st 5) :good:

    #1690649
    Avatar photovikingflagship
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2102

    My silver lining
    Innis Oirr

    Elvis Mail e/w

    Vf x

    #1690799
    Avatar photoBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 12740

    Mr Vango is an 8 year old with very little milleage on the clock. He’s
    running off his highest mark but I think he’s on the up. He hacked up
    in the heavy at the Devon National over 3m 6f and then ran a creditable
    3rd behind Corbetts Cross, off level weights in the National Hunt Challenge
    Cup over 3m 6f at the Festival, when marked 18lbs inferior. He’s one that
    will get the 4m on heavy. It’s soft at the moment, but a deluge is headed
    towards Ayr on Thursday.

    Mr Vango 20/1 with Ladbrokes/Corals at the moment. I doubt you’ll get that
    on the day.

    #1690865
    Tizaaards Cider
    Participant
    • Total Posts 623

    Probably my last off course bet of the season in this. That awful flat stuff not my cup of tea for a Saturday afternoons entertainment.

    It’s going to be Mr Vango for me. His Exeter win was very taking. Rarely see a horse win so easily and he was barely out of a canter. And to me he backed it up at Cheltenham.

    Hope you flat fans have a good season. See you all again when it’s pissing with rain and howling with wind!

    #1690936
    Avatar photoQuelle Farce
    Participant
    • Total Posts 689

    Great sentiment, TC. Agree with all of that.

    Really like this field, proper representation of this season’s staying chasers in the UK, much more than last weekend, I’d say.

    So many admirable horses I have got to like and enjoy in the last 18 months or so. I’ve long been in love with Beauport, who got his big pot when winning the Midlands Nash, My Silver Lining has been so game so often this season, Inis Oirr brilliant at Musselburgh, Anglers Crag in the Eider, Surrey Quest in the Mandarin, Mr Vango at Exeter, Tommie Beau in so many regional Nationals, Broken Halo so good at Taunton last time and so sued to carrying huge weights that he’ll hardly feel Bryony on his back with just 10-05, Iron Bridge so admirable, Ballygrifincottage performed well in the valuable high-class Swinley, Whacker Clan running two good races at Cheltenham, Git Maker who beat W Clan when second in the Kim Muir, Egbert in good ground novice events, Whistleinthedark enjoys this time of year on good ground. And then Mullins out of the blue with six including a bottom-weighted one that ran so well in the Irish National as well as Mr Incredible, fancied by so many last weekend. We have Ayr-regular Crawford bringing over course specialist Gold Cup Bailly. Then there’s beautiful Elvis Mail, who’d be half the price if this was at Kelso, and finally, the top weight, Grade 1 winning Stay Away Fay testing the form of this season’s best novice races. What an achievement it would be to win this off 12 stone.

    Madness how it hasn’t filled the 30, has to be said. But given the above, it’s hard enough anyway! I just know one of those personal favourites will win that I haven’t backed. Each one I look at I think “that’s got a great chance”!

    I’ll dwell on it, decide I like them all and will find a couple for the start of the Handicap Competition here.

    #1690944
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Was hoping to see Ontheropes miss this, but I have to be with him here. I’ll watch market, but happy to chip away just now at 33’s, so will probably start this afternoon

    My three more sensible selections would be……

    Ballygriffincottage
    Beauport
    My Silver Lining

    …………but my second selection will be Secret Reprieve. Not an horse that’s ever caught my attention, but he’s a former Welsh National Winner, and although his comeback from a year off was only satisfactory, he wasn’t knocked about, he’s on a cracking mark, and jock takes seven off. Started already on him at 66’s

    Betting both EW Seven Places too, but for now just Win

    Ontheropes 33’s
    Secret Reprieve 66’s

    #1690967
    Avatar photorobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7243

    With my original choice having run earlier in the week, Mr Vango 20/1 1/5 e/w 5 places looks overpriced to me. He won by half the length of the straight at Exeter and then led the National Hunt Chase field a merry dance for a good way and kept on stoutly to take third place. That staying form is as good as anything brings into the race.

    #1690976
    Eezer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 121

    I’m with Elvis Mail at 50-1, and I don’t think a return to form is out of the question for Iron Bridge, so I’ve added him at 33-1

    #1690978
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5712

    Skelton is bringing Ballygriffin cottage here instead of Sandown , he’s a def play , I’ve also played Klarc Kent , plenty money about for the other horses of Mullins but he looks a horse crying out for a trip , he looks a cracking e.W price

    #1690988
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14942

    Decided to just go for it with a third selection here. Broken Halo is not the most reliable, but just kept coming back to him here around 40’s

    Broken Halo
    Ontheropes 40’s
    Secret Reprieve 66’s

    #1690989
    Avatar photoChivers1987
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1613

    Angler’s Crag would have won far more comfortably in the Eider if he didn’t absolutely batter the last fence. There’s more rain coming to keep it on the softer side to his benefit as well. Obviously it’s a better race but this lad keeps improving.

    ANGLER’S CRAG 11/1

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 38 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.