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Hello, it’s rich1985 here under a new alias, as my account was locked.
Having been Undeterred in 2012 and Springing into my Step in 2013, I thought I needed a new outlet for my fancies for the flat this year. My record has been mixed at best, but I will try a different technique, looking for longer priced winners or ones that I think are value bets akin to Gingertipster’s successful approach.
I won’t look ahead to the Oaks and Derby just yet as I think both are a bit of a minefield at the moment, and would prefer to see how the ground fares come race day.
Instead I have had a look at the Nottinghamshire Oaks tomorrow, held unsurprisingly at Nottingham. The three progressive horses are clearly Dream Child, My Spirit and Pleasant Valley, and all would have good chances at the weights. However the form of Godolphin from AW to turf is concerning with both Tryster and Pretend performing dismally of late, and My Spirit has to overcome a long layoff in a competitive race. She did make a winning debut over the course and strictly holds PV in that regard, but the Cumani horse has improved since winning three times culminating in a decent handicap last month. However the ground was a good deal quicker than the forecast conditions tomorrow so may not see her in a best light and she
is up in grade too. Solar Magic is another with decent credentials having come second in a listed race and class 2 handicap, but may not appreciate the ground either. I won’t dwell too much on the rest but at the odds LILY RULES offers some value. I admit her last two efforts have been woeful finishing last in both, but they both came in very hot races. However her second to Mme Chiangmai in the Musidora last year reads very well in this context, and looks one of only a handful of runners here who is sure to relish the soft ground. Indeed her last win in testing conditions showed she can cope in them well. She does have a bit to find here off 90 but as an each way bet you have to give her some sort of chance at 20/1.Always expect the unexpected.
Tony Coyle is in decent form with 3 winners from 10 runners this past week so from that regard augurs well for Lily. Bizarrely though looking at his stats for the season he hasn’t had a second place yet from 37 tries! She’s as low as 16/1 with some firms and 33/1 with others….on the prevailing ground she hast to have an outside chance, form is temporary, class is permanent!
Always expect the unexpected.
Thanks VTC, after a bit of a hiatus I’m back and raring to go!
Things didn’t really go to plan with Lily Rules today, she’s looking hard to place at the moment after running well in G3’s last year. I did get it right not going with the 3 I mentioned though, just missed Mutatis Mutandis, who promised a lot as a 2 yo and is finally delivering now!
I will politely skip tomorrow’s card and move straight to Friday, where there is a great day of racing to enjoy. I will take a look at the rest of the action tomorrow evening, and concentrate on the Oaks now.
Starting with Legatissimo, she ran really well in the Guineas and won with a bit in hand in the end. I see no reason why she shouldn’t get the extra distance, however I feel she is a bit more exposed and was beaten by Jack Naylor last season. That horse too doesn’t have the potential as others and had a pretty busy 2 yo campaign. Diamondsandrubies seems to prefer softer ground judged on her efforts so far, and I don’t really rate the form of the Cheshire Oaks, with Entertainment soundly beaten NTO. Together Forever is interesting as she was staying on in the Musidora behind Star of Seville and should appreciate the step up in trip, while SOS seems a big price at 11/1, bigger odds than O’Brien’s horse bizarrely. She rates a danger but the one I really like is CRYSTAL ZVEZDA. There’s no telling how good this horse is as she romped home a few weeks ago, beating the well regarded Pamona and running on strongly suggested 1m4f is well within range. Stoute knows the dam family too having trained Crystal Star, who has since produced the useful Crystal Capella and Hillstar, who both stayed 12f. I see Richard Hughes riding as a plus having driven home Talent a few years ago with aplomb. 10/3 looks a decent bet.
Always expect the unexpected.
A poor start but still early days.
I will look at Royal Ascot probably at the weekend, but I like the look of Mizzou in the Gold Cup, as the Sagaro form looks very strong.
Further ahead though Trip to Paris looks a good bet for the Northumberland Plate, a huge improver this horse. Again form lines with Sagaro second and Henry II victor Vent de Force is decent and stays very well.
Always expect the unexpected.
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