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On the subject of Purple Moon’s chance in tomorrow’s Caulfield Cup, Sara Cumani is quoted in today’s Post as follows: "He likes to go forward, which I’m told is an advantage on this track."
Is there any track on which it isn’t an advantage?
If Sara has been stating the obvious, her father has , according to the Racing Post, been stating the ridiculous. Apparently, Luca is worried about his horse starting from the 2 box in the Cesarewitch tomorrow. Over 2 miles 2 furlongs on the Rowley Mile course ????
I don’t think Luca is Sara’s father, but I might be wrong?!?
Colin
OOOppppppppps, was typing without thinking( not unusual). Sara is his missis.
If Sara has been stating the obvious, her father has , according to the Racing Post, been stating the ridiculous. Apparently, Luca is worried about his horse starting from the 2 box in the Cesarewitch tomorrow. Over 2 miles 2 furlongs on the Rowley Mile course ????
Yes Clint, the draw is signiicant even over this trip, rather as it was in the Ascot Stakes before they castrated it, because of the size of the field. They hit a right-hand turn about 10f out and those drawn out wide have to cover significantly more ground. This is bourne out by the results, which say that the last 9 winners were drawn 17 or above and that horses drawn in the top half are twice as likely to be placed than those drawn low.
I’m hoping Jimmy Fortune on Samurai Way (one of my ante-posts) takes a pull early and gets in, otherwise he’ll struggle.If the jockey i back fails to get into a decent position after one and a half miles, drawn anywhere, i would be most upset.
If Sara has been stating the obvious, her father has , according to the Racing Post, been stating the ridiculous. Apparently, Luca is worried about his horse starting from the 2 box in the Cesarewitch tomorrow. Over 2 miles 2 furlongs on the Rowley Mile course ????
Yes Clint, the draw is signiicant even over this trip, rather as it was in the Ascot Stakes before they castrated it, because of the size of the field. They hit a right-hand turn about 10f out and those drawn out wide have to cover significantly more ground. This is bourne out by the results, which say that the last 9 winners were drawn 17 or above and that horses drawn in the top half are twice as likely to be placed than those drawn low.
I’m hoping Jimmy Fortune on Samurai Way (one of my ante-posts) takes a pull early and gets in, otherwise he’ll struggle.Totally disagree. I wouldn’t even look at the draw in a race such as this at Newmarket, no matter what the stats say.
I’ve been going to Newmarket for many years – I’m fully aware of the track’s configuration, and believe that one bend 10 furlongs out shouldn’t affect a decent horse/jockey partnership’s chance – and I’d never heard anyone mention the draw there until Kieran Fallon said one year that he couldn’t win the 2000 Guineas from his post postion. The horse he rode was Golan.
Hi Clint,
On any other given day I would agree with completely about the draw over 2m+ on any track.
But how do you explain that high drawn horses’ perform considerably better than their lower drawn counter parts, if the draw is not an issue…
If someone form the moon [or a statistician/lawyer], who knew nowt about racing had to have a bet on the race, their analysis would point them to various indicators, and one startling indicator since 1997, is that high drawn horses’ do well..
After making that statement today’s race will be won by Stall 1…
As I said earlier, tend to agree with you Clint, but the FACTS don’t lie..
regards,
doyley
Anyway, back at the ranch…
Purple Moon ran a great trial overnight for the Melbourne Cup imo. A poor ride ended up with him being blocked in his run three times in the straight, yet he still stayed on strongly when clear of trouble (over 1m4f) in the last furlong to finish a very creditable 6th. Had he got a clear run he would have finished in the frame, and with the extra 4f of the Melbourne Cup to bring the best out in him stamina-wise, I think he looks a cracking e/w bet there.
Scary scenes at the stalls just before the off, hope the horses involved are okay.
If I owned Purple Moon I’d send him to Nicholls to see if he can make a Hurdler of him. Shame they gave up with him over hurdles so soon.
I agree with Pegwell, Purple Moon ran a cracking Melbourne Cup trial from a poor draw and didn’t have a hard race as he was indeed stopped more than once in the straight. Unfortunately the bookie chappies saw it too and at a best price of 7/1 he is no more than fairly priced. I still like the claims of Mahler, who left for Oz today and is beginning to attract cash.
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