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Impaire et Passe still available at 25-1 ew seems a reasonable enough stab before the usual murk in this ante-post market clears.
BTW mods, the irritating login procedures still obtain!Fact To File is only entered in this race. Punters have taken the hint and the 3/1 mentioned earlier is gone. Now best priced 2/1 with most firms around 7/4.
I take it that said punters have also overlooked the fact that he won a race that totally fell apart last season and has underperformed in two of his last three starts.
The problem is you try and beat him but then see the horses around him in the betting aren’t going to run here and the ones at bigger aren t good enough …
Agree HDLG. The next two in the betting are almost certainly going for the Gold Cup. Next in is Majborough – but JP is not going to run two of his big guns in the same race. He also has Jonbon – but he looks like time has caught up with him.
After that there is the ground dependent Banbridge and then not much else. But waste your money on an outsider if you must.
CAS
you’ve correctly identified the porous nature of the Ryanair market. Even if FTF does actually win it still leaves 2 places up for grabs, which in my view makes this an ideal race to pick an outsider – the trick is of course identifying the correct one. If and when it becomes clear that Impaire et Passe is not going to make the lineup I’ll likely cast my net again among the higher odds.Sporting life reported Henderson saying about Jonbon “You’d have to say Ryanair, but I don’t know.”
Racing Post missing the few important words ‘but i don’t know’, not too surprising for them considering they are affiliated to the bookmakers ;o)
He’ll go for the Ascot Chase next. Would anyone be surprised if he were to swerve Cheltenham for Aintree? Just in case FTF sends them the right vibes….
It is a possibility but if he was mine I would still run him in the Champion Chase.
I regret to say Connell is probably right and the race is for Marine Nationale to lose. But you should never be frightened of one horse and outside of the favourite, Jonbon has a reasonable chance.
I am still not convinced by Majborough. I suppose it may depend on how he gets on at the DRF but if I was JP, I would want to be double handed in this race rather than the Ryanair (which he should win anyway).
I think Jonbon was at his very best on Saturday. Forget his first run of the season in the Shloer, he needed that very badly. At the age of ten he is entitled to need at least one run at the start of the season. If Nicky says he doesn’t know whether the Ryanair is the race, this only means his tendency towards the CC is greater.
If it were me owning them I’d go Jonbon Champion Chase and Majborough Ryanair. Jonbon likely isn’t a Cheltenham Festival winner given his age so it’s a free hit there and i’d probably miss the Ascot Chase altogether and do the races he usually goes for the rest of the season. Majborough looks more a stayer type as I’ve said before so staying at 2 miles is just halting his progress and nothing wrong with having a potential 1-2 in the Ryanair anyway.
Keep hearing an argument from experts that Majborough would be better suited to a step up as he makes too many mistakes jumping at 2m. Not sure I agree in the slightest. Surely an extra 4 obstacles would provide him more chance for error. I understand the logic that his jumping would improve for the slower pace, but not sure bad jumpers win Ryanair’s and it’s not as though its ran at a dawdle. I would imagine at times, the fractions are often comparable to a CC.
I do think he could improve for a longer trip, but that’s because he looks like he would stay further than 2m.
Fran Berry was making the case that he is just a bad jumper of a fence. Doesn’t use his back end to make the right shape. In that case, is a career in hurdles not more suitable (al la El Fabiolo!)
Anyways, I haven’t given up hope (against hope) of him being a CC horse, just because I need one to get Barry Connell beat.
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