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I can’t really understand why Poquelin is so much shorter than Tranquil Sea for this with most books. Obviously Poquelin’s trainer/jockey combo is factored into the price but I thought Tranquil Sea beat him easy in the Paddy Power. McNamara had the race won three out and Poquelin only ran on through beaten horses. Poquelin will have a very slight pull in the weights come March but for me, Tranquil Sea had plenty in hand on him in November. 7/1 is far too big given that the race will cut up.
I have my doubts as to whether Nolan will travel with Joncol this year and Barbers Shop has always been a bit of a talking horse IMO.
Dont think its just the trainer…I think the going is a key consideration. Poquelin definitely prefers better ground and not even sure the ground when he won the Boylesports was ideal for him. Tranquil Sea on the other hand was a beaten fav on better ground in last years Jewson. Thats my take on it anyway.
Chapoturgeon is one I want keep an eye on if the ground comes up good. Also Planet of Sound.
Correct decision from the connections of Joncol, the Ryanair will suit him down to the ground.
I can’t really understand why Poquelin is so much shorter than Tranquil Sea for this with most books. Obviously Poquelin’s trainer/jockey combo is factored into the price but I thought Tranquil Sea beat him easy in the Paddy Power. McNamara had the race won three out and Poquelin only ran on through beaten horses. Poquelin will have a very slight pull in the weights come March but for me, Tranquil Sea had plenty in hand on him in November. 7/1 is far too big given that the race will cut up.
I have my doubts as to whether Nolan will travel with Joncol this year and Barbers Shop has always been a bit of a talking horse IMO.
Dont think its just the trainer…I think the going is a key consideration. Poquelin definitely prefers better ground and not even sure the ground when he won the Boylesports was ideal for him. Tranquil Sea on the other hand was a beaten fav on better ground in last years Jewson. Thats my take on it anyway.
Chapoturgeon is one I want keep an eye on if the ground comes up good. Also Planet of Sound.
Tranquil Sea wasn’t right at the back end of last year. After he beat Trafford Lad and Fiveforthree in the Grade 1 novice hurdle at Punchestown, he injured his shoulder in the paddock and was stood in his box for the whole summer. EOG reckons the lack of a summer’s grass was the reason for his form tailing off at the back end of last season. He’ll be a totally different proposition at the festival this year.
I was unaware of that Imperial Call, that probably explains a bit. Do you think Tranquil Sea will improve for better going? I guess if you fancy Poquelin you have to fancy Tranquil Sea and vice versa as there form is very closely linked this year.
The plot thickens lol!
The Ryanair to easily be 4-1 each of 4 or 5 come the day of the race.
I was unaware of that Imperial Call, that probably explains a bit. Do you think Tranquil Sea will improve for better going? I guess if you fancy Poquelin you have to fancy Tranquil Sea and vice versa as there form is very closely linked this year.
I don’t think he’s too ground dependent. It was quick ground at Punchestown when he won that novice hurdle. I doubt there’s much chance of the ground being any quicker than good-soft anyway which should be perfect.
I doubt there’ll be too much between Poquelin and Tranquil Sea on the day but at the current prices, I think TS is a great e/w punt.
…and if you fancy Tranquil Sea you have to fancy Joncol…
I have severe doubts over whether Joncol will travel this year. Paul has said before that he sees him as a horse for the 2011 Gold Cup. Its possible they’ll take in the Ryanair but if he has a hard race in the Hennessy I think they’ll leave him for Punchestown and train him for Cheltenham next year.
This Ryanair has the makings of being a cracker! But Tranquil sea was a very well handicapped horse when he won the Paddy Power off 148,Poquelin ran in snatches that day and on better ground would be the choice of the two,his course form is solid,Chapoturgeon would also come into the reckoning on better ground too! There"s not a lot between them,Barbers shop has a bit more scope for improvement so i could see him in the shake up!what this race needs is a truly top class horse who is rated higher than them all,but because its a Grade 1,the weights will be level,a horse who has solid course form,a horse who has won an Arkle and a Queen Mother Champion Chase,how many of the above have done that!Voy Por Ustedes at 9.8 on the machine is that horse,he was an odds on favourite last year for the race and didn"t disgrace himself against another Grade 1 horse in Imperial Commander!
i have already backed Massinis Maguire and Forpadydeplasterer at big prices 34 and 36 on the machine,but not even these 2 have the form figures of Voy Por ustedes!I just hope Alan Kings horses start to show their well being in time!Not as good as last year TAPK when VPU was a false favourite. Those are the best races from an AP point of view. You would know that anyway being the King?!?!
Not as good as last year TAPK when VPU was a false favourite. Those are the best races from an AP point of view. You would know that anyway being the King?!?!
Aragorn,why was he a false favourite?he was 4/5,his nearest market rival was 6/1.Its not as though anything was 2/1 and you could argue the point!The form of last years race is rock solid,both Shindlers hunt and Tidal bay proved that at Aintree and Imperial Commander will run a place in the Gold Cup this year,if he doesn"t he will win next years Ryanair,but as you say i would know that anyway!
Agree completely. 10/1 on VPU with Magic Sign is madness. All going well he’s a definite runner, his runs this season are alot better than they look on paper. Even if you dont see him as the race winner its very hard to argue that he wont start a far shorter price on the day when many in the current ante post market wont even be lining up.
Last year in his prep race the race comments were:
Always going well, tracked leader 3rd, led 3 out, cruised clear on long run before last, impressive
Unfortunately this bottomed VPU for Cheltenham yet he still would have won had he jumped a little better.
At 10/1 each way this is the bet of the festival.
If I were AK I would give him a nice easy prep race and he will peak for Cheltenham and barring a fall he cannot be outside the first three
I agree that based on previous form and his class that VPU has to be given a serious chance for the Ryannair, but I can’t help but feel that the horse has had a long and busy career to date and considering he first tasted festival glory all the way back in 2006, that he may have lost that bit of zest for racing over the years? I don’t know that much on the effect of breeding but I did see on the Morning Line a few months back that there is a school of thought that French breds may not have the same longevity as Irish and UK breds? (Can any breeding experts shed light on this at all?) At the age of 9 it could be that his best years are behind him as he has struggled in his last two outings (albeit probably just fitness-recovery races for him), and that there’s a cohort of up and coming young chasers ready to take the mantle.
Kauto is French Bred and at 10 years old is in the form of his life. Edredon Bleu won the King George at age 12.
VPU always shows his very best form in the spring, at 9 he should be at his peak. Cheltenham Festival form is 1122
If you were a bookie would you lay 10/1 ?
The sportinglife website reports that the Game Spirit chase at Newbury will be VPU prep race. And both QM and Ryanair are being considered.
Pigeon, maybe it was the other round then, that Irish and UK bred don’t have the longevity of French breds? Either way those are just two examples of French breds having a good ‘shelf life’ and I would want more evidence to support that claim.
Either way, this is a very competitive renewal of the Ryannair – Poquelin is a very decent up and coming horse but the 4/1 on offer looks a bit skinny but is a worthy favourite at the moment, Tranquil Sea looked very classy LTO at Cheltenham and think he will be the one to beat. Barbers Shop has some top class placings to his name and won’t be far away. Joncol has had a good start to the season but is yet to have Cheltenham experience. That said, with Voy Por taken off his feet in the last two races, I maintain the fact he is up against some very good younger horses who may simply have too much pace for him. 10/1, I would want closer to 16/1 ante post.
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