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thewexfordman.
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- February 15, 2016 at 00:02 #1233710
I thought I had made it clear but just for you I will try again.
The only thing you’re making clear is that you are anti-Walsh. Even you don’t seem to know why. You don’t like his quiet style and would rather he asked horses up more often, especially at critical parts of a race – like Annie Power at Cheltenham? You don’t think he puts races to bed by pressing on early enough – he pressed on on Annie Power after 2 out. He was 4 lengths clear on Killultagh Vic.
Two out at Leopardstown he was two lengths clear on Un De Sceaux and did what you suggest he should be doing, asked the horse for a big one, presumably to help put the race to bed – he came down.
You think him arrogant and just generally don’t seem to have much regard for the man, as is your prerogative. But why don’t you just say that, and leave it there rather than trying to find fault with so much of what he does?
February 15, 2016 at 00:27 #1233715Just my view of ruby would be I think he is a brilliant judge of pace, he positions his horses very well, and generally from that point of view he gives his horse the best chance of winning but in that last year something is going wrong for him at the last fence. The stats on the number of times he falls wouldn’t be a true reflection as many of the mistakes made at the last knock him out of contention but not necessarily knock him off the horse. Pont Alexandra is a good example. Whilst we must also remember that many of his horses who make mistakes at the last actually go on to win because they are simply so much better than the rest. So I believe the last or second last fence problem is worse that his faller stats would indicate. Gitane du berlais, shaneshill at navan, and even Douvan on chase debut, uranna at thurles 3 week ago are just some examples of horses making significant errors at the last two fences under ruby.
So what is the problem? It’s seems like he doesn’t do anything in particular wrong he just doesn’t seem to do anything which is of any help to the horse. Black Hercules,uranna, shaneshill, valseur lido, avant tout, un de sceaux have all relatively little chasing experience, some are novices while some are second season chasers. Is it good enough as a jockey not to do anything to help or guide these relatively inexperienced horses as they are beginning to tire towards the end of a race?February 15, 2016 at 01:02 #1233719Is it good enough as a jockey not to do anything to help or guide these relatively inexperienced horses as they are beginning to tire towards the end of a race
What would you have him do? What guidance should he give?
There is an absence of logic in these posts criticising Walsh. How come all the critics can see what Ruby is doing wrong, and Ruby, regarded by most experts as one of the greats, cannot grasp what you are all saying, and how right you are and how wrong he is?
How come he safely negotiates almost all the fences bar the last couple? If he has somehow mysteriously lost his skill and judgement at a fence, why does it only manifest itself two out or at the last?
Show me a single strand of logic in any of these arguments.
February 15, 2016 at 02:11 #1233721For those who think he is doing something different now than what he did years ago, I would urge you to watch the attached link and see what he does over the last four on Azertyuiop in 2004 QMCC – he lets the horse get in close and he brushes through the top of each fence, the only difference being that the horse’s back end didn’t get higher than his front end and hence he didn’t land steeply and fall…and yes that is a certain Mr Geraghty showing what happens when you ask a horse to go long and they put down on you.
February 15, 2016 at 02:31 #1233722Not sure what else to add, except that going by a lot of opinions on here, I
don’t know very much about jockeyship. I happen to think that Walsh has been
the best jockey riding in GB and Ireland for the past decade, and I still
couldn’t come up with another jockey to take on that mantle. Jockeys all have
periods of bad luck, and it is not all necessarily spread out at even intervals,
in fact they are a bit like buses. So as far as I’m concerned that’s it in a
nutshell’Oh, and to add insult to injury……I’m a big Geraghty fan too.
There’s obviously little hope for me
February 15, 2016 at 09:24 #1233726I thought I had made it clear but just for you I will try again.
The only thing you’re making clear is that you are anti-Walsh. Even you don’t seem to know why. You don’t like his quiet style and would rather he asked horses up more often, especially at critical parts of a race – like Annie Power at Cheltenham? You don’t think he puts races to bed by pressing on early enough – he pressed on on Annie Power after 2 out. He was 4 lengths clear on Killultagh Vic.
Two out at Leopardstown he was two lengths clear on Un De Sceaux and did what you suggest he should be doing, asked the horse for a big one, presumably to help put the race to bed – he came down.
You think him arrogant and just generally don’t seem to have much regard for the man, as is your prerogative. But why don’t you just say that, and leave it there rather than trying to find fault with so much of what he does?
You clearly don’t want to listen to an explanation which I have elaborated on beyond merely describing the man as arrogant. That perhaps is why he refuses to admit there is anything wrong and even goes as far as making up trivial stories about his daughter criticising him as some sort of deflection technique. Something you would no doubt understand as you have tried to do it throughout this thread.
Yes, he does push Annie Power clear but he doesn’t keep the revs up as they approach the last and in searching for a stride the horse comes up out of his hands. It is those final few strides that are critical. Had he been more positive I don’t think there would have been an issue.
As for Killultagh Vic the horse basically outclasses his rivals without Walsh having to do very much at all. Bit like a bike freewheeling downhill. What happened after the last was just unlucky.
Un De Sceaux is much more interesting. You omit to mention that the horse had a ten length lead which the jockey just decided to forfeit. Had he have pressed on he could have been twenty lengths clear by the time he met the fence in question. It was Walsh who produced a situation where he felt the need to go for something bigger. I think the jock got the stride wrong but I don’t believe Un De Sceaux is the type of horse who easily goes from ‘popping’ to be being asked for a big one.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the Champion Chase. A few people have mentioned the likely nuisance value of Special Tiara. Surely he will only be problem if Walsh doesn’t make enough use of the favourite? Un De Sceaux would in all likelihood have won a Champion Hurdle. Ridden aggressively he should have far too much toe for Special Tiara. Allowed to pop round and yes it might be a different story.
February 15, 2016 at 11:58 #1233742Stilvi, whichever way you paint it, this is essentially what you are saying: “Although I’m not a jockey and have never been a jockey, I can see exactly what Walsh is doing wrong, but he cannot see it.”
And you say Walsh is arrogant?
February 15, 2016 at 12:12 #1233746How come he safely negotiates almost all the fences bar the last couple? If he has somehow mysteriously lost his skill and judgement at a fence, why does it only manifest itself two out or at the last?
[/quote]
Could it now be a mental thing, though, a bit like a golfer getting ‘the yips’.
February 15, 2016 at 12:21 #1233750Interesting clip, LD, with some fine examples of what is being discussed here.
At every fence down the back, bar the water where Ruby slightly shortens him, he asks Azertyuiop up with varying degrees of vigour. They key to each one is that he has seen a stride and is confident he is bang on with it. Where MF comes down, Geraghty counts him in once (three strides out) but does not do so on the next stride, only to try again on the final stride, probably confusing the horse and, arguably, causing the unseat. At that fence, Ruby has been preparing again to ask his horse up (watch his hands) but he realises the horse is on the wrong stride and he does not ask, but sits tight anticipating a less than clean jump.
And to return to an earlier point – ground and momentum (an obvious link) seem important when a jockey wants to ask a horse up, especially time and again in a race. On much softer ground, I suspect you’d have seen different rides from both jocks.
February 15, 2016 at 12:38 #1233752How come he safely negotiates almost all the fences bar the last couple? If he has somehow mysteriously lost his skill and judgement at a fence, why does it only manifest itself two out or at the last?
Could it now be a mental thing, though, a bit like a golfer getting ‘the yips’.
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If he allowed himself for one second to believe that, he’d be finished. Any jockey would.
February 15, 2016 at 12:51 #1233754I thought I had made it clear but just for you I will try again.
Un De Sceaux is much more interesting. You omit to mention that the horse had a ten length lead which the jockey just decided to forfeit. Had he have pressed on he could have been twenty lengths clear by the time he met the fence in question. It was Walsh who produced a situation where he felt the need to go for something bigger. I think the jock got the stride wrong but I don’t believe Un De Sceaux is the type of horse who easily goes from ‘popping’ to be being asked for a big one.
This was UDS’s first run of the season in testing going. It’s pretty obvious that Ruby would want to give him a bit of a breather mid-race especially after the horse had been a long way off his best up to that point.
February 15, 2016 at 12:53 #1233756How come he safely negotiates almost all the fences bar the last couple? If he has somehow mysteriously lost his skill and judgement at a fence, why does it only manifest itself two out or at the last?
Could it now be a mental thing, though, a bit like a golfer getting ‘the yips’.
If he allowed himself for one second to believe that, he’d be finished. Any jockey would.
[/quote]
According to some on here he is finished
February 15, 2016 at 13:02 #1233757I thought I had made it clear but just for you I will try again.
Un De Sceaux is much more interesting. You omit to mention that the horse had a ten length lead which the jockey just decided to forfeit. Had he have pressed on he could have been twenty lengths clear by the time he met the fence in question. It was Walsh who produced a situation where he felt the need to go for something bigger. I think the jock got the stride wrong but I don’t believe Un De Sceaux is the type of horse who easily goes from ‘popping’ to be being asked for a big one.
This was UDS’s first run of the season in testing going. It’s pretty obvious that Ruby would want to give him a bit of a breather mid-race especially after the horse had been a long way off his best up to that point.
Steady on there Homer, I’m not sure common sense is allowed on this thread
February 15, 2016 at 18:57 #1233809Stilvi, whichever way you paint it, this is essentially what you are saying: “Although I’m not a jockey and have never been a jockey, I can see exactly what Walsh is doing wrong, but he cannot see it.”
And you say Walsh is arrogant?
So you have no answers and have now just resorted to having a little chip about the use of the word ‘arrogant’. Anyone would think I am the only person who has suggested as much.
On the basis of what you have written anyone who offers opinion is arrogant. That’s ridiculous.
It really isn’t worth arguing when that is best someone can offer.
February 17, 2016 at 20:09 #1234084I just came across this – some hard stats, at last. You cannot argue with the figures, and it seems to me now that Ruby’s misfortunes go beyond the bounds of normal ‘luck’, There must indeed be something going on and I was wrong to be so dismissive of Stilvi and others on this thread.
Since January 1, 2005, Walsh has suffered 68 falls or unseats at the last, 31 of which came when in contention for a win.
That compares with 48 for both Sir Anthony McCoy, who retired last year, and Richard Johnson, with 24 coming in contention for McCoy and only 13 for Johnson.
From a total of 6,505 rides in the period in question, Walsh comes a cropper at the last in 1.04 per cent of his rides, compared to 0.53 per cent for McCoy (9,085 rides) and 0.51 per cent for Johnson (9,474).
However, Peter Scudamore believes the bare numbers do not tell the whole story, citing Walsh’s infamous final-hurdle fall from Annie Power at last year’s Cheltenham Festival as an example.
“To me, when Annie Power fell, she picked up at the shadow of the hurdle, so that wasn’t his fault,” said Scudamore.
“If I felt he was doing something wrong technically I would say so, but I really do think he’s one of the best we’ve ever seen.
“You see some jockeys making mistakes or changing their mind at fences, but he isn’t doing that.
“Every time you fall you feel like you should have done something different, but technically he’s doing nothing wrong. The worst thing that could happen is if he got it into his head that it’s all down to him.
“He just has to remain positive – it’s not his fault.
February 17, 2016 at 21:49 #1234098Very interesting SC. Twice as likely, over a significant sample, to come down at the last as McCoy or Johnson. You need to be careful though. Unless you knew how many horses those three had in contention at the last I’d say the stat could be misleading. Much more likely to fall when battling it out than sauntering in fourth or fifth.
February 22, 2016 at 22:38 #1234813Another look at the Ruby stats with a fine piece by Kevin Blake http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake
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