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Another look at the Ruby stats with a fine piece by Kevin Blake http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake
Very good points from Kevin Blake, bar the conclusion. :lol:
Value Is EverythingHe poses some interesting questions, particularly the one about cost/benefit of Ruby’s style (which is an unanswerable question because of the number of other variables at play).
He also shoots himself in the foot by starting off bemoaning punters’ long memories and then a few paragraphs later suggesting that recency bias is at play on this one.
Interesting though.One vital stat is missing when looking at the final obstacle:
Despite his falls/unseats quote being at 1.04% compared to AP’s of 0.51%, how many races does Ruby win in the end – WHEN IN CONTENTION AT THE LAST – and how many does AP win? If Ruby’s win percentage is significantly higher, then it is still worth the risk.Good question Ruby.
I do know for a fact AP has the highest win percentage when NOT IN CONTENTION at the final flightGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
One vital stat is missing when looking at the final obstacle:
Despite his falls/unseats quote being at 1.04% compared to AP’s of 0.51%, how many races does Ruby win in the end – WHEN IN CONTENTION AT THE LAST – and how many does AP win? If Ruby’s win percentage is significantly higher, then it is still worth the risk.KB says that is a very difficult stat to nail because when they do win, very few form comments are made about the last obstacle so queries are almost impossible
Thanks for forwarding my point SC. The most interesting fact is in my opinion the three ‘streaks’ mentioned by the author. So outside his bad streaks he might be even better than the rest. We’ll what happens at the spring festivals. Good Luck Ruby!
He was also pretty lucky the horse found a leg in the 3:15 at the last when in front…..I’m no jockey expert but I think he must be doing something wrong.Its happening too frequently.
Interesting article by Kevin Blake about Ruby and his falls on the ATR website.
See page 5 of this thread. SC already mentioned the Kevin Blake blog.
Sorry missed that. I think if he falls at the last on either Min or Douvan whilst in front and about to win at the Festival or any other short priced Mullins horse it will be interesting to see what happens with both the media and the crowd.
He’s got quite a few rides that could experience a last flight/fence departure. The reaction would be very interesting indeed. You never know, if this might not be Ruby’s last Festival after all. If he wins the Albert Bartlett, the he surely would consider retirement.
He just needs to fall off Douvan and Faugheen at some stage and he will have full set. That was bad.
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