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Actually I meant for all of the festival races EW.
Trying to spread the wings of the thread;)
I’m not into the looking ahead game FSL really, so wouldn’t have a strong view on backing ow’t in most races yet
Bit bored and ended up looking at Chelters betting, hence thread
Some back of the mind horses would be
Our Vic, needs KS to feck up though and Segal has tipped it.
Don’t Push It, not seen best of this one yet imo
<br>Hardy Eustace, he ain’t done yet and nor is Straw Bear
(Edited by empty wallet at 3:58 am on Jan. 15, 2007)
I think the novice Irish chasers (both two milers and stayers) are pretty average in comparison to the novice hurdlers.
Denman and Gungadu have the same owners and I think they have said that Gungadu will only run if Denman misses the race. I believe Gungadu is being aimed at the 4m National Hunt Chase.
Quote: from empty wallet on 3:53 am on Jan. 15, 2007
Hardy Eustace, he ain’t done yet and nor is Straw Bear<br>
Although putting up 1/14 shots is hardly meritorious I’ll declare now I think Hardy Eustace has absolutelu no chance in the Champion Hurdle.
There was enough to like about the way Dom D’Orgeval jumped today in the main – although he beat trees it was a nice enough debut.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 2:20 pm on Jan. 15, 2007[br]
Although putting up 1/14 shots is hardly meritorious I’ll declare now I think Hardy Eustace has absolutelu no chance in the Champion Hurdle. <br>
I look forward to obtaining some big prices come the day then;)
Quote: from empty wallet on 2:51 pm on Jan. 15, 2007[br]
Quote: from davidjohnson on 2:20 pm on Jan. 15, 2007[br]
Although putting up 1/14 shots is hardly meritorious I’ll declare now I think Hardy Eustace has absolutelu no chance in the Champion Hurdle.
I look forward to obtaining some big prices come the day then;)
Same here…I dont think he is the winner but i will be shocked if he is not there or thereabouts at the end.
SHL
I can only think you blokes have forgotten what a machine Denman is. Unless the track is on the firm side, it seems to me to be a two-horse race, i.e. between MWdeS (assuming he runs in it. I don’t necessarily listen to connections’ stated programme for a horse), and Denman.
(Edited by Grimes at 5:47 pm on Jan. 15, 2007)
Why would you be stunned?
The horse has done nothing wrong this season, won easily at Ascot, HE was given a iffy ride behind DC and only beaten 1L giving 4lb
<br>Whose to say he cannot improve on those and put in a very good performance?
i sure wouldn’t write a horse off who has performed very well in this race in the past, which has shown no evidence of regressing yet
I personally would be more worried about DC being good emough and BI showing his form without McCoy onboard<br>
I agree with you, EW. If anything Hardy has come back to a bit of form this year.
He was gicenand iffy ride behind DC and the race wasn’t run to suit him at all and i thought he was the one to take from the race.
DC has been visually impressive this season and everyone was raving about him after the greatwood, but other than visually impressing i don’t think that form is worth much in all honesty.
I don’t think Hardy is quite good enough to win a champion hurdle (would need things to go his way) but i can see him running a very big race.
Grimes: what suggests that Deman is a complete ‘machine’???? He has be nothing more than average over fences for me. He only just beat Don’t Push It, who isn’t a world beater and some could argue that if DPI hadnt made that blunder he would have beaten Denman that day.
He is FAV for potential alone………….. he was FAV for the RSA hurdle last year on potential alone…….. and i also jumped on the band wagon……… and look what happened.
Maybe he may deserve be FAV but not 7/2………… not when you can back Ungaro at about 14’s
Quote: from Grimes on 5:45 pm on Jan. 15, 2007[br]I can only think you blokes have forgotten what a machine Denman is. Unless the track is on the firm side, it seems to me to be a two-horse race, i.e. between MWdeS (assuming he runs in it. I don’t necessarily listen to connections’ stated programme for a horse), and Denman.
(Edited by Grimes at 5:47 pm on Jan. 15, 2007)<br>
<br>Don’t Push It would have beaten Denman if not making his blunder, of that i have no doubt
<br>Beating up the Snakebites,High Chimes, Penzances, Keepthedreamalives of this world does not make a horse a machine imhaho
Difficult race to assess but I won’t be backing Denman and I agree with Stormont, I can’t work out how a ten length winner of a grade 1 is 14/1. Denman is yet to win a G1 chase and Don’t push it aside he hasn’t run against much yet.
It’s not a case of BI needs McCoy rubbish, what it is, is BI suits MCoys riding style or the other way round if you like, hence connections WANT McCoy when available, it was the same with Oratorio, who suited Fallons wind em up style
<br>i wouldn’t even compile a tissue without knowing the conditions and the likely runners, hence i don’t bet Ante Post which is pin sticking imo
all i’m saying is Denman should not be the price he is for a race of this calibre
Trackside – please tell me why you think MWDZ requires soft ground??
Surely a world hurdle dispells that myth?
Forgot to reply to this:
<br>surely you’re backing on potential (even moreso than Denman) with Don’t Push It and Gungadu..
<br>Why? what has Denman done to show he’s the more likely winner of this race and anyway, every bet is one of potential, in that, you conclude it’s price is potentially wrong, so therefore bet it
Thats is what betting is about imhaho
(Edited by empty wallet at 7:56 pm on Jan. 15, 2007)
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For reasons which I expressed in a previous discussion, unless the field is seriously depleted Hardy Eustace won’t even make the first 3 this year.<br> One win against a horse who had everything against him, and a second to a horse who was probably more inconvenienced by the pace than he, does not add up to progressive form.<br> As there is no evidence to suggest that Brave Inca or Mac’s Joy have regressed, and there are a number of capable and improving younger horses in the field, I fail to see how he can hope for much better than an honorable 4th or 5th.
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