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Quote: from trackside528 on 6:37 pm on Jan. 15, 2007[br]
Quote: from empty wallet on 5:57 pm on Jan. 15, 2007[br]Why would you be stunned?
The horse has done nothing wrong this season, won easily at Ascot, HE was given a iffy ride behind DC and only beaten 1L  giving 4lb
<br>Whose to say he cannot improve on those and put in a very good performance?
i sure wouldn’t write a horse off who has performed very well in this race in the past, which has shown no evidence of regressing yet
I personally would be more worried about DC being good emough and BI showing his form without McCoy onboard
<br>To be honest I don’t think he is quite the horse that he was to be honest EW.. he beat a decent (but only decent) stayer at Ascot (the rest were all rubbish) and then ran a sound race in the Greatwood.. to be honest I dont think he will turn the form around with Detroit City on better ground at Cheltenham.. just my opinion..
Hardy didnt run in the Greatwood………..
Thats fair reet
But i take the view that those couple of the improving youngsters ain’t good enough and cannot improve anymore on what they’ve already shown
So therefore HE is taking on horses he’s beaten before and who according to reports didn’t have the ideal preparation last year
As far as the champion hurdle is concerned, if Feathard Lady is fit and well for the race i think she will take all the beating.
She will have most things in her favour. She is a strong traveller, likes good ground and shows she will handle the up hill finsh like she showed at Sandown.
I think her current price is quite good, imo
I don’t think there’s as much reason to doubt Denman’s chase jumping as much as Kauto Star’s, personally, Stormont.
Imho, (though I would be prone to give a lot of credence to Nicholls’ sky-high opinion of him, anyway), Denman’s proved he has an engine and  a half by winning all bar one of his races, hurdles and chases, most of them easily.
He beat Boychuk and Ungaro (3rd and 4th), last year,  by more than 21 lengths in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, EASILY, returning an RPSF of 140.
He lost at Cheltenham last year to Nicanor (I lost dough on him too), but his RPSF of 150 was pretty good. But what really makes me sit up is that Nicholls seemed cagey about his chances before the race. Not bullish, as he is about the horse usually.  And he always maintained that chasing would be his game, anyway. Pretty much the "hurdle wins are a bonus" kind of talk.
I didn’t recommend betting on him now, though, (nor would I, unless a person HAD to bet in the race, when I’d also recommend the same stake on MWdeS).
Quote: from Grimes on 8:46 pm on Jan. 15, 2007[br]I don’t think there’s as much reason to doubt Denman’s chase jumping as much as Kauto Star’s, personally, Stormont.
Imho, (though I would be prone to give a lot of credence to Nicholls’ sky-high opinion of him, anyway), Denman’s proved he has an engine and  a half by winning all bar one of his races, hurdles and chases, most of them easily.
He beat Boychuk and Ungaro (3rd and 4th), last year,  by more than 21 lengths in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, EASILY, returning an RPSF of 140.
He lost at Cheltenham last year to Nicanor (I lost dough on him too), but his RPSF of 150 was pretty good. But what really makes me sit up is that Nicholls seemed cagey about his chances before the race. Not bullish, as he is about the horse usually.  And he always maintained that chasing would be his game, anyway. Pretty much the "hurdle wins are a bonus" kind of talk.
I didn’t recommend betting on him now, though, (nor would I, unless a person HAD to bet in the race, when I’d also recommend the same stake on MWdeS).
His jumping isn’t what makes me think he isn’t as good as Nicholls opinion of him, which in my opinion has gone down hill of late anyway.
As to your comments about him not being bullish about his chances before the festival he is like that with many of his horses just before a race…….. like most trainers.
He has won easily, but what has he beaten……….? sod all in my opinion……..
Yes, he beat Boychuck and Ungaro, the later has improved out of all recognition since he has been chasing and in my opinion Denman’s form has receeded over fences……………… i thought he was a machine over hurdles but i havent been impressed with him at all so far over fences…….. just seems like a real slogger to me and im not convinced he finds that much off the bridle
Well I can’t really argue with the most of the points you make, as regards his form, hurdling and chasing, since they are substantially true, on the face of it. At present, I have to concede that the facts of his form, I suppose, are on your side.
But he’s shown enough jumping potential, simply in his hurdling,  for me to believe that he’s a champion chaser in waiting. I suppose only time will tell whether your doubts about his merits as a chaser are well founded.
(Edited by Grimes at 10:00 pm on Jan. 15, 2007)
I have said his form has receeded so far…….. im not saying he wont turn out to be top class, but on the form he has shown so far, im saying it is nowhere near the form he showed over hurdles. If you take his hurdles form literally he should have dotted up in his chases, but to be pushed close by Don’t Push It suggests that maybe, he isn’t going to be as good over fences. No one can say for sure what he will achieve, however.
Im not so sure whether he was pulling out more against Don’t Push It or whether he was just staying on one paced when the second had given best.
I just think he is a proper stayer and on good ground, something like Ungaro who showed a nice turn of foot (if they are the right words to use over three miles) may turn out to get away from him while Denman takes a while to get going.
He stills seems a very immature horse to me, as you say, doesnt always find much infront. Im not sure this will be his year…………..
I mean he could turn out to be a great gold cup horse next year but i wont be supporting him this year.
If he goes and wins, fair play to everyone supporting him but i stand by my opnions and this year at least i don’t think he will fulfill his potential
I think Denman will win the race but also think the value isn’t there and the price will only shorten as the Festival gets closer, I do like Standin Obligation as an alternative though, a good jumper, his last run was poor but on the horses less favoured slower ground. I think he is around 16/1. ;)
I would be interested in Patsy Hall from the Irish contingent to run a big race in the RSA but i just wonder if they are up to scratch this year.
SHL
I guess I am EW. Have been very impressed, she is unbeaten over fences, has got better with every run and jumps pretty soundly. Unbeaten in 2 Grade 1’s including a good win over next time out Grade 1 winner Schindler’s Hunt. Charles Byrnes is hardly a small trainer, but if she were stabled at Noel Meade’s, Arthur Moore’s or Eddie O’Grady’s, she’d be a 6/1 chance. Added bonus is that she’ll have the mares allowance to boot.
Don’t Push It is entered in the 1.30 at Newbury and although this won’t be no push over giving lumps away, should really be winning this
(Edited by empty wallet at 8:56 pm on Jan. 16, 2007)
Quote: from davidjohnson on 12:24 pm on Jan. 16, 2007[br]What reasons are there for Patsy Hall to reverse form with Calilin Ailann?  <br>
I think the mare deserves to be the shorter price but i think he will benefit more for a slightly better ground and also the fact that he has jumped around Cheltenham is nice. He would be my idea of an ew bet.
SHL
Quote: from empty wallet on 8:54 pm on Jan. 16, 2007[br]Don’t Push It is entered in the 1.30 at Newbury and although this won’t be  no push over giving lumps away, should really be winning  this
(Edited by empty wallet at 8:56 pm on Jan. 16, 2007)<br>
How much weight is he giving, EW, havent had chance to look at the cards for tomorrow yet. Bet tere small fields there tomorrow, gorund supposedly bottomless there at the moment.
Big weight and heavy ground, might not be as easy as you think, but depends on competition, but you say its ‘lumps’ of weight, the competition isn’t that good then?
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