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Well, it seems more and more likely that Alpha des Obeaux does indeed run in the RSA Chase. Good news.
Get in if that’s true! Already looking to be worth 4 figures to me.
Been on it basically daily for the last month.
What makes you say this though?
Well, it seems more and more likely that Alpha des Obeaux does indeed run in the RSA Chase. Good news.
Get in if that’s true! Already looking to be worth 4 figures to me.
Been on it basically daily for the last month.
What makes you say this though?
I think I’ve just found the answer
Well, it seems more and more likely that Alpha des Obeaux does indeed run in the RSA Chase. Good news.
Get in if that’s true! Already looking to be worth 4 figures to me.
Been on it basically daily for the last month.
What makes you say this though?
I think I’ve just found the answer
Great news this!!! Zark will be buzzing. Have £70-£80 on at 20/1 – i’l be topping up every week till the fez now.
Well, it seems more and more likely that Alpha des Obeaux does indeed run in the RSA Chase. Good news.
Get in if that’s true! Already looking to be worth 4 figures to me.
Been on it basically daily for the last month.
What makes you say this though?
I think I’ve just found the answer
exactly
Well, it seems more and more likely that Alpha des Obeaux does indeed run in the RSA Chase. Good news.
Get in if that’s true! Already looking to be worth 4 figures to me.
Been on it basically daily for the last month.
What makes you say this though?
I think I’ve just found the answer
Great news this!!! Zark will be buzzing. Have £70-£80 on at 20/1 – i’l be topping up every week till the fez now.
Same here
Got about £50-70 ish on so far. And that will grow and grow.
Biggest Cheltenham antepost punt of the year he will be for me.
4/1 for a place!!!!
So a horse that bled last time out is going to break a strong RSA trend and win without a previous run that calendar year ?
Is that a strong trend? Don Poli didn’t run between the back end of December and the RSA and won it. First Lieutenant finished 2nd to a future Gold Cup winner. Not something I’m concerned about in the slightest.
So a horse that bled last time out is going to break a strong RSA trend and win without a previous run that calendar year ?
Yes he is
So a horse that bled last time out is going to break a strong RSA trend and win without a previous run that calendar year ?
You are correct! Don Poli did it at 6 years old – lets hope ADO can do as well.
Another Festival trend is horses winning having been PU on last run (the average was either 2/3 per Festival).
Is that a strong trend? Don Poli didn’t run between the back end of December and the RSA and won it. First Lieutenant finished 2nd to a future Gold Cup winner. Not something I’m concerned about in the slightest.
Don Poli was the only horse in the last 50 years, so there should be a slight concern.
I’ve looked at trends quite extensively in the past, and this December-Festival layoff is something I have looked at. I opposed Tatenen in the Arkle (? may have been another) based on it when I first started to look into trends a lot, and got lucky with him being rubbish. Essentially I think there is no weight to it and it depends completely on trainer methods IMO.
Altior was able to go December-Festival successfully last year. Best Mate won Gold Cups doing the same, Kauto Star too, Don Poli won the RSA after 3 months off, First Lieutenant finished 2nd in the RSA after 3 months off, etc. Champion Hurdles have no doubt been won by horses attempting the same gap between runs, and in countless other races.
Another thing you need to ask yourself is…how many horses who attempted the December-Festival double actually had a genuine chance of victory? The ‘stat’ on its own is meaningless. Look at what I wrote about French-breds in this race earlier in the thread. You’ll see there that that ‘stat’ is essentially nonsense. If you can pinpoint 20 horses who went off between evens and 10/1, and say “oh look, only 1 won, 1 placed and 18 were unplaced”, then yeah ok, that would be a meaningful stat. But any stat that looks at things in black + white terms is just going to be misleading. Sometimes the sample size is so big that it holds weight however.
I have literally zero concerns about the gap and I see it only as a positive sign. If he came out and ran again this month, I’d be worried. I’m worried about him bleeding LTO and I’m worried about the nature of the RSA, which can produce unpredictable crazy races for young horses. But 20/1 makes it all worthwhile. Even 12/1 made it worthwhile tbh.
20 of the last 22 Champion Hurdle winners had a prep that calendar year
Only Don Poli in the last 50 years managed to win the RSA without a recent prep. Time For Rupert ( 7-4 fav ) Ballycasey ( Mullins / Walsh ) More Of That ( favourite ), No More Heroes ( 5-2, Cooper / Elliott ) have all failed in the last few years. There were plenty more and it’s something i’ve mentioned on here prior to previous renewals, so it’s not just a stat pulled off the internet.
Don Poli won his race in December, you’re backing a horse which pulled up in December and will attempt to defy a very strong trend. ” Zero concerns ” sounds ridiculous in such context, in my opinion.
Found another, Faugheen Dec > Festival when he won the Neptune.
No More Heroes came to win the race and got injured.
Sorry if my “zero concerns” sounds ridiculous. It’s just Morris’ MO. I found one of his horses who got beaten 30L at the end of December, then got beat 50L a week later, then ran at the Festival without another run and placed (in a Grade 1).
20 of the last 22 Champion Hurdle winners had a prep that calendar year
So then you should look into how many Champion Hurdle runners didn’t have a run that calendar year, separate those into who had a chance and go from there. I’d wager than 85%+ of Champion Hurdle runners had had a run that year. Off the top of my head, MTOY finished 2nd last season without a run.
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