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Been studying Mouse Morris’ Grade 1 Cheltenham Festival runners + found a little trend. Not going to reveal the trend, but it throws up 16 qualifiers (2002-2016).
2 winners
8 placed (8 2nds, in fact)
6 unplacedOf these 16, I would say that only 1 ran badly. And by badly, I mean that he didn’t hold a winning chance 4 out.
Alpha Des Obeaux qualifies.
I would also point to 150/1 Elysian Rock, who was in the process of running a cracker in the RSA before making a mistake 4 out, and his December-January preparation of being beaten by 56L and 31L, in an attempt to detract those who believe that ADO cannot win because of his preparation this season.
We confident ADO will be going RSA all being well? Gigginstown have a few they could aim at the RSA and my worry is they will be tempted with the stayers hurdle
If he goes stayers hurdle I’ll be gutted
Already looking like being my biggest Cheltenham bet In the years I’ve been betting
We confident ADO will be going RSA all being well? Gigginstown have a few they could aim at the RSA and my worry is they will be tempted with the stayers hurdle
If he goes stayers hurdle I’ll be gutted
Already looking like being my biggest Cheltenham bet In the years I’ve been betting
I think plenty of us will be gutted. I am going to cover my stake on the RSA by backing ADO for the stayers @ 25’s
Ok, have read this thread from front to back and had a good think about it in the weekend and unfortunately I cant have Alpha Des Qbeaux.
He has won twice from 5 starts; hardly great form. He was beaten by Coney Island. Coney Island has since been beaten by Our Duke, who is 2/2 for the season. Coney Island was also beaten by Haymount, who in turn was trashed by Bellshill in Limerick. Also, bursting a blood vessel isn’t a great sign. if it happens once it can happen again and The RSA is a tough Novice Chase
I think this will be a three horse race between Bellshill (who looks the best but doesn’t have festival form), Our Duke (who like I said is 2/2 and had beaten Coney Island) and Whisper (who looks the best of the English). As a patriotic Irishman
I wont back Whisper and will hang my hat on Bellshill or Our Duke. Also think that Whisper likes a bit of cut in the ground which he’s unlikely to get in MarchOk, have read this thread from front to back and had a good think about it in the weekend and unfortunately I cant have Alpha Des Qbeaux.
He has won twice from 5 starts; hardly great form.
As I said, 5 of the last 7 RSA winners won 40% or less of their chase starts that year. That includes future Gold Cup winner Bob’s Worth.
He was beaten by Coney Island. Coney Island has since been beaten by Our Duke, who is 2/2 for the season. Coney Island was also beaten by Haymount, who in turn was trashed by Bellshill in Limerick.
Yeah, beaten by Coney Island in November over 2m 4f with Mark Enright riding. That’s not 3m in March for a Mouse Morris-trainer Grade 1 performer. There’s just no chance he was tuned up for that day. Mouse just gets all the novice experience into his horses between October and the first week of January, gives them 2 1/2 months off and then they run a stone better. A tried and tested formula.
Also, bursting a blood vessel isn’t a great sign. if it happens once it can happen again and The RSA is a tough Novice Chase
Yes, this is a concern. But he’s not 4/1, he’s 20/1, and this price makes it worthwhile.
Fair enough, Zarkava. I take your point. He was 6/1 before bursting the blood vessel so that’s definitely the biggest factor in his drift back 20s. Best of luck with it..
Really pleased that 12-1 is still available for Our Duke. He has done nothing wrong and think hes been underrated a bit
Couldn’t put you off given Harrington’s record in the race. Just think he doesn’t have that bit of class that Aux Ptits Soins, Alpha Des Obeaux or any others have.
Very interesting article. Petrol for the Alpha Des Obeaux naysayers.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/when-classy-hurdlers-go-chasing/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I just went through it to look at how Cheltenham Grade 1-winning performers fared.
Diamond King won the Coral Cup. Currently rated 9lbs lower but only had 3 runs over hurdles.
Briar Hill won the Cheltenham Bumper, only 4 starts over fences. Rated 13lbs lower.
Tiger Roll won the Triumph. Rated 4lbs lower.
Un De Sceaux and Sizing Europe won the Arkle, but obviously we wouldn’t have known that when they embarked upon their chasing careers! You could argue Sizing Europe would have won the Champion Hurdle (he would have), in which case he’s rated 10lbs higher over fences.
Not a huge sample, but far from conclusive results. So it looks fair to say that if the horse lacks that bit of class to win (or do very well in) a Grade 1 over hurdles, he’ll struggle to reach that same level of form over fences.
I think this will be a three horse race between Bellshill (who looks the best but doesn’t have festival form), Our Duke (who like I said is 2/2 and had beaten Coney Island) and Whisper (who looks the best of the English). As a patriotic Irishman
I wont back Whisper and will hang my hat on Bellshill or Our Duke. Also think that Whisper likes a bit of cut in the ground which he’s unlikely to get in MarchWhisper will go JLT, if he goes at all. He needs cut. I expect Russell to be on Mall Dini in the RSA.
Very interesting article. Petrol for the Alpha Des Obeaux naysayers.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/when-classy-hurdlers-go-chasing/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
I just went through it to look at how Cheltenham Grade 1-winning performers fared.
Diamond King won the Coral Cup. Currently rated 9lbs lower but only had 3 runs over hurdles.
Briar Hill won the Cheltenham Bumper, only 4 starts over fences. Rated 13lbs lower.
Tiger Roll won the Triumph. Rated 4lbs lower.
Un De Sceaux and Sizing Europe won the Arkle, but obviously we wouldn’t have known that when they embarked upon their chasing careers! You could argue Sizing Europe would have won the Champion Hurdle (he would have), in which case he’s rated 10lbs higher over fences.
Not a huge sample, but far from conclusive results. So it looks fair to say that if the horse lacks that bit of class to win (or do very well in) a Grade 1 over hurdles, he’ll struggle to reach that same level of form over fences.
Several recent RSA and Gold Cup winners could have been said to have lacked class over hurdles.
I backed that Alpha des obeaux last time out, was very disappointing, just looks on the small side for fences for me.
Really pleased that 12-1 is still available for Our Duke. He has done nothing wrong and think hes been underrated a bit
completely agree. Looks a slogger too so ideal type for the race.
Well, it seems more and more likely that Alpha des Obeaux does indeed run in the RSA Chase. Good news.
Well, it seems more and more likely that Alpha des Obeaux does indeed run in the RSA Chase. Good news.
What makes you say this? I am delighted if true, but keen to know what prompted it
I wont back Whisper and will hang my hat on Bellshill or Our Duke. Also think that Whisper likes a bit of cut in the ground which he’s unlikely to get in March
I wont back Whisper and will hang my hat on Bellshill or Our Duke. Also think that Whisper likes a bit of cut in the ground which he’s unlikely to get in March
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