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Good luck zark
I couldn’t have him myself. But stranger things have happened.Happy with coney island there. The winner showed a great attitude and stays all day as he did over hurdles,
To my eyes it seemed to go wrong after the mistake ,rather than, the quite frankly ridiculous comment that it was outclassed.
Embarrassing comment.
ATR reported that Cooper said ADO bled, hence pulling up so quickly. Hopefully that’s all that will surface. may have to have some more on now considering his drift.
Yeah the horse bled. Difficult to know that from watching the race on TV. My comment still stands in relation to being a 152 rated hurdler who rarely wins and who picked up the pieces in a terrible world hurdle.
And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he didn’t run in this race and went for an easier race, perhaps the 4 miler instead.
I love the way Bellshill has been campaigned so far. Mullins is building him up to fences nicely and will hopefully step him up in trip next run. Im all over him for the RSA and York Hill for the JLT.
I Have also backed ADO at 12s but i’ve accepted that bet is down the toilet now. He may not even run after todays problems and performance
Yeah the horse bled. Difficult to know that from watching the race on TV.
Well he’s hardly gonna be pulled up after 6 fences because he’s outclassed when he only finished 4L behind the 2nd LTO.
Just taken a chance on Might Bite at 14s. Just watched the race again, he was very impressive and looks like he has developed into a monster. Hope he recovers after his from the nasty fall. I dont know what planet DJ was on should of popped him over.
14s is a fair price
Got to love the attitude of Our Duke but convinced Coney Island the best horse in the race and still looked quite babyish. Know which one I’d fancy on the day!
ADO bet in the virtual recycle bin for me.
Thought the winner ran a great race on his second start of the year. Coney Island got outstayed and JLT at Cheltenham looks made for him.
Think the horse that fell at the last fence the other day could have a big say in this if running.
Ah come on, just seen the replay. Clearly something happened jumping a fence. He was hard on the bridle + then instantly he was gone.
I wouldn’t be afraid of any of the front three in March. They just slogged it out between them and nothing showed any real class.
Not sure about Might Bite. That race really did just fall apart. Only 4 finishers. His jumping the last time at Cheltenham didn’t really impress either…Kempton and Cheltenham are chalk + cheese. Coneygree did the Feltham-Gold Cup double, but he’s a bit of a monster.
Maybe time to start increasing my insurance bet on Aux Ptits Soins…
Well he was just totally outclassed zarkava. Wasn’t able to keep with them. In truth we are talking about a 152 rated hurdler who rarely wins and who just happened to pick up the pieces in one of the worst world hurdles ever.
Totally outclassed?
Don’t be ridiculous. Something occurred quite clearly but he definitely wasn’t being outclassed at the time.
I’ll continue to back him for the RSA and me and Zark (and others) will be laughing all the way to the bank.
He will win if he stays up at cheltenham.
He’s an absurd price and has been for ages.
It’s actually so crazy that I keep thinking that the bookies are going to refund all bets in the horse because they’ve laid the wrong horse by mistake. Haha
If ADO comes back it will be a nice surprise for me, but something went wrong and possibly waiting on news of that could be prudent at the moment.
Maybe time to start increasing my insurance bet on Aux Ptits Soins…
Operation Insurance has begun!
Anyway, what do the trends say?
7yos win this race. 9 of the last 11 winners. 1 of the 2 was a 5yo getting weight, and I don’t believe the weight allowances exist anymore? (nb. Long Run ran with 1lb less than the others in the RSA, so it seems to be a minimal allowance now).
Bye bye, Might Bite, Coney Island, Disko, Cole Harden, Whisper and Bleu Et Rouge.
Irish-bred horses win this race. 9 of the last 11 winners.
Actually this is a bad trend for me…bye bye Alpha Des Obeaux and Aux Ptits Soins. Also Whisper, Bleu Et Rouge and Clan Des Obeaux.
But there hasn’t been a great deal of French runners, and how many were good enough to compete? Just looking at the last 6 years; Vyta du Roc, Roi Des Francs, Le Mercurey, Adriana Des Mottes, Smad Place (beaten a neck), Sam Winner, Gevrey Chambertain, Le Bec, Samingarry, Black Thunder, Unioniste, Terminal, Houblon Des Obeaux, Grands Crus, Walkon, Mikael D’Haguenet and Quel Esprit. Grands Crus was there 2 out but didn’t stay (and never won another race). Smad Place beaten a neck. Mikael D’Haguenet fell but he was rubbish over fences anyway. The others just aren’t top class. So I think this could be a false trend.
Let’s go back further…Long Run 3rd as a 5yo. Punchestowns finished 5th. He was beaten by Pride of Dulcote over 2m 7f, and never won a chase over 3 miles, so I don’t think you could call him a top class 3m chaser. Pomme Tiepy fell as a 5yo and never did anything afterwards as a chaser, so I don’t think you could call her top class. Bagan, Ungaro, Turko, Dom D’Orgeval, Royal Rosa, Lough Derg, Chopneyev and Star De Mohaison (5yo winner getting weight).
Just looking at the top class 3m chasers, who I’d argue are Smad Place, Grands Crus (???? really depends on your opinion), Long Run and…that’s it! Houblon Des Obeaux needs is ok but not top class (finished 7th, only 2L behind 4th Unioniste), Unioniste is ok but not top class (finished 4th in any case). Happy to debate about this but I’d argue the only 2, who in hindsight were up to winning this kind of race, finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th (if you include Grands Crus). So I think this is really a false trend, and with the growing influx of French-imports, I’d exercise caution over this ‘trend’.
What about other strong trends…the last 10 winners were all rated 135+ over hurdles.
Actually I’ve just found something interesting for the anti-Alpha Des Obeaux club. ADO was in the process of destroying Blaklion over hurdles at Aintree a few years back. Blaklion won the RSA last year.
Anyway…Disko doesn’t have a hurdles rating, but I’d imagine it would be under 135. This trend doesn’t really help us tbh. Practically all of the market principles are rated 135+ over hurdles.
The last 11 winners all finished in the top 3 in a Grade 1/2 chase. This doesn’t really help us at the moment with 2 months of racing to go. Whisper, Bleu Et Rouge, Bellshill, Might Bite (I’m happy to give him a pass on this trend), Champers On Ice, Clan Des Obeaux, Aux Ptits Soins and Cole Harden have got work to do though.
Feltham winners have a very bad record. Really awful. Bye bye, Might Bite (and Royal Vacation).
So, very early days but I’d say it’s safe to discount Might Bite (for several reasons), Coney Island, Disko (also on the 135+ hurdles trend), Cole Harden, Whisper and Bleu Et Rouge on the age trend. If Our Duke goes to the Festival without another run, I’d be concerned by that, but Harrington does have a decent RSA record with very few runners: 5271 (66/1 2nd, 16/1 1st).
Anyway…my final word on Alpha Des Obeaux. He only bled yesterday, and if he’s fine and 100% come March, he will run a massive race. The evidence:
– 2nd to Thistlecrack in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle. Take Thistlecrack out and we’ve got a 22L Stayers’ Hurdle winner to an ex-Gold Cup winner (Henderson’s horses were in unbelievable form in March: Bob’s Worth 3rd, Sprinter Sacre 1st, My Tent Or Yours 2nd, Altior 1st, Buveur D’Air 3rd, Vaniteux would’ve been 2nd, etc etc), the 2015 winner in 4th, ex-Coral Cup winner Aux Ptits Soins 5th, the 2015 2nd in 6th (only beaten 6L more by Cole Harden), the 2015 Albert Bartlett winner 7th and Whisper 8th. IMO the form of that race is beyond question. If you want to argue that he picked up the pieces in a bad race, then I’ll happily direct you to this race here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awhtRllGXYA – and look at what the horse destroyed in 2nd achieved the year before. So we’re not talking about horses “picking up the pieces” IMO, we’re talking about two very high class horses.
– He’s trained by a Cheltenham master in Mouse Morris. Look at Baily Green in the Arkle (Dec to the Festival without a run, 2nd to Simonsig). Look at First Lieutenant in the RSA (6L 2nd to Last Instalment in December, straight to the Festival and beaten 2L by the following year’s Gold Cup winner). Look at War of Attrition (4L 2nd to Beef or Salmon in December, to the Festival without a run + won the Gold Cup). You can practically guarantee that ADO will improve for a stone. Obviously he was pulled up so we don’t know how well he would have run, but given he was beaten 4L by Coney Island over an inadequate trip LTO, you have to surmise that he would have been bang there at the finish.
– 2nd to Thistlecrack in the Stayers’ Hurdle wasn’t a fluke for Alpha Des Obeaux. He was going to do exactly the same the year before at Aintree when falling at the last. I don’t swear by any kind of ratings, particularly not ORs, but I think RPRs can help give a rough idea of what’s going on. Let’s look at 2014/15. ADO ran to a RPR of 142 at Cork behind Black Hercules. Then 139 behind Douvan. Then 3 months later, straight to Aintree and he runs to 150 when falling behind Thistlecrack. That’s an improvement of 8lbs according to RPRs. Let’s look at 2015/16. RPRs of 152, 159 and 159. Then to Cheltenham after a break of 2 months and he runs to 170. So we’ve got improvements of +8 and +11 at major Spring festivals. This is Mouse Morris’ MO.
Obviously being pulled up due to bleeding isn’t an ideal Festival preparation, but let’s look at the consequences. He didn’t jump 5 or 6 fences as a result. Big deal, he has plenty of experience jumping fences and his jumping over 2m 4f the last day was perfect. It’s not going to impact upon his fitness. It will interrupt his Festival preparation no doubt, but how much? I don’t know, I’m only guessing, but I’d imagine the plan was for him to have a rest now anyway after having 5 chase starts in the space of 3 months.
Let’s also look at the ground. It’s highly likely we’ll have good to soft ground at the worst for the Festival. Politics may play an issue and it might be genuine soft ground, but it’s likely going to be good-soft or quicker. ADO on good to soft/yielding or quicker: 112322FP31. The F when he was going to finish 2nd to Thistlecrack, the P obviously yesterday.
I cannot stress enough how insane this 20/1 quote is. I think I’ll even start changing my backs to EW now given we’re now getting 4/1 for a place (or even 5/1 if a bookmaker is offering 1/4 the odds).
Fagan returns tomorrow at Fairyhouse, and although my head tells me he’ll head for The National Hunt Chase, I haven’t totally ruled him out of this. Just failed to nab Uknowhatimeanharry in The Albert Bartlett, and at the price, I think he’s worth a risk.
Having made nearly a whole quid, wrapping up my book in this, if starting again, I’d be very keen on Our Duke, and I’d still be interested in Mall Dini should he make it on the day, but as far as Ante-Post goes, I reckon Fagan will be my only go. Took 50’s each way Paddy Power, and 65’s & 70’s.
Maybe time to start increasing my insurance bet on Aux Ptits Soins…
Operation Insurance has begun!
Anyway, what do the trends say?
7yos win this race. 9 of the last 11 winners. 1 of the 2 was a 5yo getting weight, and I don’t believe the weight allowances exist anymore? (nb. Long Run ran with 1lb less than the others in the RSA, so it seems to be a minimal allowance now).
Bye bye, Might Bite, Coney Island, Disko, Cole Harden, Whisper and Bleu Et Rouge.
Irish-bred horses win this race. 9 of the last 11 winners.
Actually this is a bad trend for me…bye bye Alpha Des Obeaux and Aux Ptits Soins. Also Whisper, Bleu Et Rouge and Clan Des Obeaux.
But there hasn’t been a great deal of French runners, and how many were good enough to compete? Just looking at the last 6 years; Vyta du Roc, Roi Des Francs, Le Mercurey, Adriana Des Mottes, Smad Place (beaten a neck), Sam Winner, Gevrey Chambertain, Le Bec, Samingarry, Black Thunder, Unioniste, Terminal, Houblon Des Obeaux, Grands Crus, Walkon, Mikael D’Haguenet and Quel Esprit. Grands Crus was there 2 out but didn’t stay (and never won another race). Smad Place beaten a neck. Mikael D’Haguenet fell but he was rubbish over fences anyway. The others just aren’t top class. So I think this could be a false trend.
Let’s go back further…Long Run 3rd as a 5yo. Punchestowns finished 5th. He was beaten by Pride of Dulcote over 2m 7f, and never won a chase over 3 miles, so I don’t think you could call him a top class 3m chaser. Pomme Tiepy fell as a 5yo and never did anything afterwards as a chaser, so I don’t think you could call her top class. Bagan, Ungaro, Turko, Dom D’Orgeval, Royal Rosa, Lough Derg, Chopneyev and Star De Mohaison (5yo winner getting weight).
Just looking at the top class 3m chasers, who I’d argue are Smad Place, Grands Crus (???? really depends on your opinion), Long Run and…that’s it! Houblon Des Obeaux needs is ok but not top class (finished 7th, only 2L behind 4th Unioniste), Unioniste is ok but not top class (finished 4th in any case). Happy to debate about this but I’d argue the only 2, who in hindsight were up to winning this kind of race, finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th (if you include Grands Crus). So I think this is really a false trend, and with the growing influx of French-imports, I’d exercise caution over this ‘trend’.
What about other strong trends…the last 10 winners were all rated 135+ over hurdles.
Actually I’ve just found something interesting for the anti-Alpha Des Obeaux club. ADO was in the process of destroying Blaklion over hurdles at Aintree a few years back. Blaklion won the RSA last year.
Anyway…Disko doesn’t have a hurdles rating, but I’d imagine it would be under 135. This trend doesn’t really help us tbh. Practically all of the market principles are rated 135+ over hurdles.
The last 11 winners all finished in the top 3 in a Grade 1/2 chase. This doesn’t really help us at the moment with 2 months of racing to go. Whisper, Bleu Et Rouge, Bellshill, Might Bite (I’m happy to give him a pass on this trend), Champers On Ice, Clan Des Obeaux, Aux Ptits Soins and Cole Harden have got work to do though.
Feltham winners have a very bad record. Really awful. Bye bye, Might Bite (and Royal Vacation).
So, very early days but I’d say it’s safe to discount Might Bite (for several reasons), Coney Island, Disko (also on the 135+ hurdles trend), Cole Harden, Whisper and Bleu Et Rouge on the age trend. If Our Duke goes to the Festival without another run, I’d be concerned by that, but Harrington does have a decent RSA record with very few runners: 5271 (66/1 2nd, 16/1 1st).
Anyway…my final word on Alpha Des Obeaux. He only bled yesterday, and if he’s fine and 100% come March, he will run a massive race. The evidence:
– 2nd to Thistlecrack in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle. Take Thistlecrack out and we’ve got a 22L Stayers’ Hurdle winner to an ex-Gold Cup winner (Henderson’s horses were in unbelievable form in March: Bob’s Worth 3rd, Sprinter Sacre 1st, My Tent Or Yours 2nd, Altior 1st, Buveur D’Air 3rd, Vaniteux would’ve been 2nd, etc etc), the 2015 winner in 4th, ex-Coral Cup winner Aux Ptits Soins 5th, the 2015 2nd in 6th (only beaten 6L more by Cole Harden), the 2015 Albert Bartlett winner 7th and Whisper 8th. IMO the form of that race is beyond question. If you want to argue that he picked up the pieces in a bad race, then I’ll happily direct you to this race here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awhtRllGXYA – and look at what the horse destroyed in 2nd achieved the year before. So we’re not talking about horses “picking up the pieces” IMO, we’re talking about two very high class horses.
– He’s trained by a Cheltenham master in Mouse Morris. Look at Baily Green in the Arkle (Dec to the Festival without a run, 2nd to Simonsig). Look at First Lieutenant in the RSA (6L 2nd to Last Instalment in December, straight to the Festival and beaten 2L by the following year’s Gold Cup winner). Look at War of Attrition (4L 2nd to Beef or Salmon in December, to the Festival without a run + won the Gold Cup). You can practically guarantee that ADO will improve for a stone. Obviously he was pulled up so we don’t know how well he would have run, but given he was beaten 4L by Coney Island over an inadequate trip LTO, you have to surmise that he would have been bang there at the finish.
– 2nd to Thistlecrack in the Stayers’ Hurdle wasn’t a fluke for Alpha Des Obeaux. He was going to do exactly the same the year before at Aintree when falling at the last. I don’t swear by any kind of ratings, particularly not ORs, but I think RPRs can help give a rough idea of what’s going on. Let’s look at 2014/15. ADO ran to a RPR of 142 at Cork behind Black Hercules. Then 139 behind Douvan. Then 3 months later, straight to Aintree and he runs to 150 when falling behind Thistlecrack. That’s an improvement of 8lbs according to RPRs. Let’s look at 2015/16. RPRs of 152, 159 and 159. Then to Cheltenham after a break of 2 months and he runs to 170. So we’ve got improvements of +8 and +11 at major Spring festivals. This is Mouse Morris’ MO.
Obviously being pulled up due to bleeding isn’t an ideal Festival preparation, but let’s look at the consequences. He didn’t jump 5 or 6 fences as a result. Big deal, he has plenty of experience jumping fences and his jumping over 2m 4f the last day was perfect. It’s not going to impact upon his fitness. It will interrupt his Festival preparation no doubt, but how much? I don’t know, I’m only guessing, but I’d imagine the plan was for him to have a rest now anyway after having 5 chase starts in the space of 3 months.
Let’s also look at the ground. It’s highly likely we’ll have good to soft ground at the worst for the Festival. Politics may play an issue and it might be genuine soft ground, but it’s likely going to be good-soft or quicker. ADO on good to soft/yielding or quicker: 112322FP31. The F when he was going to finish 2nd to Thistlecrack, the P obviously yesterday.
I cannot stress enough how insane this 20/1 quote is. I think I’ll even start changing my backs to EW now given we’re now getting 4/1 for a place (or even 5/1 if a bookmaker is offering 1/4 the odds).
I’ve found myself putting him in every multiple for Cheltenham now over the last month. And I even stuck a single on him (I never do antepost single bets) as I’m that confident.
Like you, i find it astonishing he’s not single figures priced.
Let’s hope he wins come March
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