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Quote: from guskennedy on 5:50 pm on Dec. 14
good call regarding the likely lack of pace and the resulting sprint finish but wouldn’t the thing to do in those circumstances be to lay those at the front of the market rather than make it a no-bet race? Where there’s no pace my view is that a race becomes little more than a lottery.
Gus,
I suspect this is going to sound daft, but after a number of losing Saturdays, I’ve opted out of the laying business on days when there are so many meetings going on. With the races coming up continuously, it just seems more difficult to keep abreast of what’s happening in the BF markets, as well as watch all the races.
How those BF players who operate before the race, then trade in running, and still find time to air conspiracy theories on the forum, manage their time is a mystery to me. ÂÂÂ
AP<br>
I would rather him at 9-2 than Rc at 5-2 anyday
Gus there is a much more sensible appraisal from Eddie The Shoe in the Observer and on their website .
I can only assume that they knew he was not 100% fit and that is why Johnson did not repeat last year’s tactics when he went on at the top of the hill due to the slow pace
I thought RC’s jumping was much improved at Haydock. Any opinions? Don’t forget that Rooster Booster had a reputation as a sloppy jumper in his younger days when he was on the floor more than once.
We haven’t had a strong Championship division for many years. Istabraq was brilliant but had no decent opposition until the ill-fated Valiramix burst on to the scene. Rooster Booster was always miles clear on the figures last year after his h’cap win at the Open meeting. See You Then was a very good hurdler but had no opposition. I could go on…
But I do think we are entering a potentially good era. Rooster Booster was, on the face of it, disappointing yesterday but I’m one of the ones who believe it will pay to ignore it. Rhinestone Cowboy has yet to prove he has improved. I could have given that lot weight and beat them. And it was over 2m4f. Maybe they’ve twigged he doesn’t have cahmpion pace at 2m.
Spirit Leader is intersting but will need to keep improving from last year and hasn’t proved either that she’s done so on yesterday’s evidence, but I’m prepared to give her time. Back In Front is interesting but in two runs has still to get near his Supreme Novices rating, let alone try and improve on it.
Rigmarole is emerging as the typical improving handicapper, and he’s now shown he can win off a slow pace. His time at the open meeting was excellent for its class.
A lot of the others being mentioned these days are the Flame Creeks and French Hollys of their time. They’ll look okay dancing past trees but put them in against real horses and they get their comeuppance…
Even if the pretenders improve to the mid 160s, which would put them ahead of anythig Isty had to beat, they’d still be 10lbs behind Rooster Booster.
Rooster Booster is still the main man. If anyone cares to offer 6/1 or better then they know where Betfair is ;)
What a fascinating thread. <br>Mo, don’t feel guilty about mugging me, I’m sleeping a little easier these days, having fully recovered from last seasons trauma caused by ‘the grey thing’ finding a leg.
I’m inclined to agree with the view that nothing solid can be taken from Saturdays race. However, I have a feeling that the 6/1 you seek will be freely available in a months or so. ;)
Well done with Rigmarole by the way. After you with the crystal ball. My crystal ball says Sporazene, Rhinestone Cowboy, with Flame Creek, the best outsider.<br>Be lucky.
I know what you’re saying, Alan, but you know me, I’m just that kinda guy ;)
I wouldn’t read any more or less into the defeats of Flame Creek or Spirit Leader than I would the defeat of Foghorn, and for the same reason :- it was an unsatisfactory event – more like a public gallop (and they can be very misleading).
For what it’s worth, these are my current ratings for the main contenders (with best prices in brackets to let you see where the value lies).
Rooster Booster 176+ (9/2)<br>Westender 165+ (50/1)<br>Rhinestone Cowboy 162p (7/2)<br>Self Defense 161 (33/1)<br>Spirit Leader 160p (weight adjusted) (25/1)<br>Intersky Falcon 159 (20/1)<br>Back In Front 158p (10/1)<br>Rigmarole 155+p (20/1)<br>Hasty Prince 150p (-)<br>Davenport Milenium 150+ (20/1)<br>Sporazene 149+p (20/1)
Once I get a chance to analyse more thoroughly yesterday’s trial, it’s possible Rigmarole, Hasty Prince and Davenport Milenium will go up a pound or two, but they did run very close to predictions – it’s just disappointing that Spirit Leader and Rooster Booster were well below their best.
I’m seriously thinking about adding Westender to my portfolio, though I accept he looked decidedly canine last time. Still, Pipe has over three months to sweeten him up again.
<br>I just wish that Pipey would let us know if Westender IS going novice chasing or not.
Copeland starts tomorrow against Non So btw
I see that RB may well have a pacemaker from now on. Sensible in the smaler field races
There can’t be many races at the Cheltenham Festival which suffer from lack of a decent pace!
Rob
Probably no need for a pacemaker on the big day (but maybe they should stick one in just to make sure) but it’s easy to see the logic behind one for the other races.
I also see that any 9/2 after saturday didn’t last long. Not all punters are mugs, it would seem :cool:
After that last run something is amiss and I personally have him in a few lines too in TTTF but anything or everything should be tried to see if they can get him to sparkle again?
Hi MO hope your well;) keep going mate?:biggrin:
The entries for the Christmas hurdle suggest that there will be pace in the race but after four winners in the two days before the Bula Hobbs’s horses have been running very badly again this week . I cannot believe that was Widemouth Bay’s real form for a start so that is a real worry .
I’m afraid I’m one of the legions who are of the opinion that Rooster Booster is no better than a high class handicapper that was fortunate to be at his best in a sub standard Champion Hurdle that was padded up with Novices and fading lights. He will not see the road the Cowboy takes in 2004!;)
That’s cos the Cowboy will be taking a different road :cool:
If they both run in the Champion, the Cowboy will be doing well to get within sniffing distance of the Rooster’s rear end in the last half mile.
Whether the Rooster wins the Champion Hurdle or not <br>( and I think he will ) I’m sure he will be a different horse in the Christmas Hurdle, particularly if he gets the pace he needs. The play for the sceptics would seem to be to take the 4-1ew for the big one now, and then lay off the win portion on Betfair after Christmas when the price will surely shrink. Would anyone care to oppose him being placed in the Champion ??<br>I shall hold my bet as I’ve yet to see any serious opposition
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