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Would not surprise me to see Farage stand as a Tory candidate.
As to Boris keeping his head down and then reappearing with all guns blazing to rescue the day. This is exactly what he did with Theresa May and plenty of “vile, pig ignorant, people” fell for it.
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysBoris can’t see as far as 2029 , he sees a winner every time he looks in the mirror ….. , I’ll be amazed if Sunak goes to a election , he can’t get the vote of the Tory faithful never mind the country
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You could be right, HDLG, but Tory Leader (hence PM) is a poisoned chalice right now.
I’m certain Sunak and Truss only took it on because she thought it was the only chance they’d ever get.
Johnson’s “been there, done that” – there isn’t the same frantic urgency.
If he’s smart enough to realise the 2024 Election is a lost cause for the Tories, he might want to sit it out.
The ONLY way I see him taking on a losing situation is if it’s on these terms – “Operation Stop Labour Landslide: Truss and Sunak have already lost us this, so it’s Boris to the rescue. Not to win, but to ensure we’re not wiped out altogether and to give a base to build on in Opposition to old ‘Captain Hindsight’.”
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Winston Churchill himself couldn’t rescue this one. Sunak is their safest pair of hands who at least won’t do anything even more stupid than they already have. Why do you think they fiddled their process to stop it going to the members?
If they want to bin him for the election they will but who comes in? Sure, Johnson will stop some of the loons from defecting to the likes of Reform but he’s an absolute open goal for the opposition and no longer an election winner. The rest of them are absolute lightweights some of whom aren’t fit to be MPs never mind PM.
I completely agree with Richard’s analysis.
Truss and Kwarteng made a bad, post-Pandemic, midst of Ukraine War-fuelled cost of living, crisis even worse.
Sunak (and Hunt) are trying to pick up the pieces in that old-style monetarist, austerity way that is very conservative with a small c – cautious.
Things won’t get any worse, but they won’t get better in time for the next election either.
By every reliable historical measure the Tories are already beaten in the next Election.
Not by the Pandemic, not even by the cost of living crisis, but by presiding over a fiscal humiliation.
As Professor John Curtice has said, no government has ever won an election after presiding over a fiscal humiliation – John Major paid dearly for Black Friday in 1997 and Sunak will pay for Truss’s mini-budget in 2024.
The fact it wasn’t him and he warned against it may mitigate the scale of the loss, but we’ll be 14 years into a Tory government by then, it’s been 14 years of mostly austerity, a rising tax burden (unusual for the Tories) and yet declining public services, especially the NHS.
The public won’t need much persuading it’s simply “time for a change.”
There is nothing remotely inspiring about Starmer, but there doesn’t need to be.
There wasn’t much inspiring about Blair – he simply wasn’t Major.
That’s how it works.
If Farage gets involved it could turn even worse for the Tories than it is already going to be.
And Johnson isn’t really an option any more – his image among the electorate as a whole is damaged beyond recall.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Johnson’s tarnished image isn’t anything his chums in the rightwing media can’t fix.
I hear you, Gladders, but there’s some things even they can’t fix and Murdoch in particular likes to back the winner and claim he was instrumental in the victory.
I can see The Sun (as in 97, IIRC?) deserting the Tories at the death and urging the nation to elect Starmer on polling day so they can give another nauseating “It was The Sun wot won it!” headline on the Friday.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It’s Labour’s election to lose.
The more they say, the less likely they are to win. That’s how good things are!
Expect surprises, the unexpected etc, but the world will be a different place in a year’s time such is the rate of change.
I couldn’t make a call on what will happen now, such is the uncertainty thrown at us from all quarters.
(Nearly) 2 years before a GE, if current HMG decides to play the long game.
A lot can happen in that time. UK politics is fickle and so are the electorate.
2023 will be the defining year imho. Middle England, although seeing soaring prices in the weekly food shop, arent seeing effects of interest rises yet, as c80% of mortgages are fixed rates. During this year, some of those fixes will ‘unravel’.Always worth remembering that amongst Middle England, peeps have huge buffers of savings and investments which help shield against Cost of Living challenges. Shouldnt be underestimated.
Peeps will tire of strikes, so any political advantage the likes of Lynch, think will continue to act as anti-HMG, will wane.
According to some pollsters Labour’s (and Starmer’s) vote amongst key demographics is ‘soft’. If any recession is shallow and short (possible), then come end of 2023 peeps may have a different outlook.
Labour are still ‘weak’ on actual policy, they wont have money to spend – Starmer said as much this week- and their support for fringe causes, politically correct stuff, could still go against them.
The main prob for the Tories this year will be huge losses in May’s council elections. They may act as a catalyst for further internal bun fights.“ Labour are still ‘weak’ on actual policy… »
Just off the top of my head:
-£28 billion a year for climate action.
Net Zero power system by 2030.
-Establish a new publicly owned energy generation system.
-£60bn investment programme to insulate 2m houses.
-Introduce a new industrial strategy to improve UK’s productivity rate
-Setting up a national wealth fund.
-More Devolution – abolishing the house of lords and giving more economic powers and budgets to the regions.
-Abolishing non-dom status and paying higher public sector wages with the revenue raised.
-Equalisation of tax rates paid on capital gains and dividends with those on wages, and possibly charging national insurance on investment income.
-Raising the minimum wage to a ‘proper living wage’ (Osborne nicked the phrase ‘living wage’ from campaigners while not raising the minimum wage anywhere near what they were calling for.)
-Banning zero hour contracts and giving workers entitlement to sick pay, paid holidays and parental leave from day one.
-Introduction of fair pay agreements (collective bargaining) to set wages and working conditions in key sectors.
-Taking rail operators back into public ownership once their franchises expire.
-Removing VAT exemption from private school feesPlus the Labour policies that the Tories have already adopted and tried to pass off as their own.
The tories know they are toast hence the record number not standing again. The economic situation won’t get better for at least 18 months and by then folks income will be squeezed so much there is no way the tories will come back from it. Doris could come back if the polls are still dire in say spring/summer next year. A bigger downer for them is that less and less are voting right wing which they used to do when they hit early 40s. Tories will be in opposition for at least ten years and will only get back in if Labour cock up or folk get bored with them. I’ve got to the stage that starmer is the lesser of two evil but I’m glad I’m in my 60s and can remember a time when govt actually helped the ordinary man. All soundbites and no substance. Nicola sturgeon being an honourable exception with free bus passes up to 22 and over 60s and free prescriptions plus other things that actually help folk. That’s why they keep winning elections. It’s not tricky.
Obs Glads u havent watched and listened to Starmer this week; no spending ’cause there aint no money.
And on Peston a few weeks back one of Labour’s front bench (name escapes me) cast doubt on the £28bn climate action plan, because of likely spending constraints. Whatever is their “climate action”? Is SKS going to fly into space and turn it off?
What does it actually mean?Fluff, fluff, and more fluff.
« Fluff, fluff, and more fluff. »
As opposed to the rock-solid Conservative policymaking which has led the country to its current state, you mean?
“The tories know they are toast”
I really think most of them do – I find the stat from John Curtice VERY telling here.
If the Conservatives win in 2024 they will be the first UK government EVER to be re-elected following a major adverse “fiscal event.”
Nothing in this life is ever impossible – and records are there to be broken – but I really cannot see it happening.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The fact we’ve already had a number of Tory mps confirming they won’t be standing at the next election tells its own story , it’s worth remembering there’s no ” Get Brexit done ” next time , Maggie couldn’t even dig the Tories out of this
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
“If the Conservatives win in 2024 they will be the first UK government EVER to be re-elected following a major adverse “fiscal event.””
Times have changed. Social media and the power of the (mainly rightwing) mainstream media have never been so influential.
I wouldn’t put it beyond the media to do a hatchet job on Starmer and Labour in order to get their beloved Tories back in again. In fact, I’ve already backed the Conservatives to win the most seats at the next general election.
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