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WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 18
Lingfield
1.37 Godot 134; Guard Duty 130; Tamar Bridge 128Newbury
1.15 Mt Fugi Park 151; Kintail 146; Kyntara 142; Moulins Clermont 142
2.25 Primoz 148; Bourbali 146; Javert Allen 137
3.00 Beau Balko 151; The Edgar Wallace 151; Densworth 132Ludlow
12.50 Neon Moon 143; Deise Aba 139; Balkardy 135Kempton
6.40 Kalamunda 103; Civil Law 99; Hieronymus 99; Metallo 98
7.10 Sommelier 110; Fire Demon 110; Aramis Grey 109; Tiger Crusade 106THURSDAY DECEMBER 19
Exeter
1.55 Sizable Sam 140; Hititi 139; Jupiter Allen 138; Enjoy Your Life 138
2.30 Into The Park 142; Issam 141; Investment Manager 140Chelmsford
7.10 Street Kid 106; Alzahir 106; Brewing 104FRIDAY DECEMBER 20
Ascot
12.45 Dibble Decker 144; Patanita 140; Whatsupwithyou 138; Stay If U Want To 138
1.55 Iberico Lord 147; Ryan’s Rocket 142; Here Comes Georgie 140SATURDAY DECEMBER 21
Haydock
1.30 Cerendipity 143; Xcitations 139; Royal Mer 139; Findthetime 138
2.05 Percussion 155; Credo 148; Regal Blue 145; Jacks Parrot 143
2.40 Rewired 137; Bertie’s Ballet 137; Milldam 132; Coventry 132
3.15 Stratton Oakmont 140; Magical King 135; Supremely West 132; The Imposter 131; Castle Rushen 131; My Bobby Dazzler 131Hereford
1.38 La Dominiale 140; Jessie Lightfoot 137; Glimpse Of Gala 136; Tune The Chello 136; Lagonda 136
2.13 Nemean Lion 157; Below The Radar 155; Stoner’s Choice 154Ascot
1.15 Black Gerry 158; Kotmask 156; Prince Quali 155
3.00 Flegmatik 165; Threeunderthrufive 163; Trelawne 161; Two For Gold 161; Victtorino 161
3.35 Our Champ 150; Secret Squirrel 149; Black Hawk Eagle 149; Dysart Enos 148Wolverhampton
5.45 Ghaihaban 101; Enola Grey 100; Triumph Of Peace 99; Happy Hadeda 98One last race before the Christmas break, a female riders’ chase being tacked on to the end of the card at Fakenham. Reason for it being at the end is so all the male jockeys can go home early…, and that is true.
SUNDAY DECEMBER 22
Fakenham
3.13 Scene One 133; Bashers Reflection 132; Planned Paradise 132THURSDAY DECEMBER 26
Kempton
12.45 First Street 148; Leader In The Pack 143; Tapley 142; Fire Flyer 141
3.40 Mahons Glory 151; Samuel Sapde 148; East India Express 146; In The Air 141Wetherby
1.35 Some Scope 159; Good Boy Bobby 158; Cruz Control 157; Young Buster 153
2.10 Rich Spirit 139; Myretown 137; Glory And Honour 128
2.45 American Sniper 140; Eire Street 140; Foster’sisland 139; North Parade 133Aintree
12.30 Richmond Lake 156; Imperial Saint 153; Westerninithepark 147
1.40 Call Me Lyreen 149; Red Dirt Road 147; Uncle Bert 146; Florida Dreams 145
2.15 Gustavian 137; Busty Boy 134; Jar Du Desert 133
2.50 Booster Bob 151; Inedit Star 148; Doyen Du Bar 144Market Rasen
1.47 Inis Oirr 142; Herewegohoney 134; The Wrekin 134; Ballydisco 130Wincanton
2.03 Whydah Gally 131; Passing Well 130; Vision De Maine 129
2.38 First Lord De Cuet 155; Dartmoor Pirate 154; Largy Poet 153; Lord Accord 142Wolverhampton
3.00 Felix 102; Andaleep 100; Koy Koy 96
4.05 Haku 114; Paradias 111; Claymore 108
4.35 Revolutionise 100; Altmore 99; Follow Your Heart 99; Local Music 98Two days’ worth odf declaration today, but upo to date after beavering away this afternoon. Pretty good day as I hasd 3 of 3 in the TRF 10 To Follow and Reading beat Northampton Town 4-1!
FRIDAY DECEMBER 27
Wetherby
1.35 Whatdeawant 149; Dare to Shout 142; The Four Sixes 141
2.45 Parisencore 155; Pay The Piper 151; Harper’s Brook 147Chepstow
1.05 Nocte Volatus 161; Fidelio Vallis 155; Eden Du Houx 155; Paint The Dream 154; Le Milos 154; Georges Saint 154
2.10 Tune In A Box 140; Dans Le Vent 137; Major Fortune 136; Bill Baxter 136
2.50 Where It All Began 160; Iwilldoit 159; THe Newest One 158; Monbeg Genius 156; Galia Des Liteaux 156Kempton
1.20 West Balboa 154; Royale Margaux 147; Della Casa Lunga 146; Larchmont Lass 146
2.30 Sans Bruit 172; Calico 169; Traprain Law 167; Soul Icon 161
3.08 Jet Plane 143; Highstakesplayer 142; Beachcomber 141; Deise Aba 140; Weveallbeencaught 140
3.38 Hansard 154; Valgrand 152; Ooh Betty 149SATURDAY DECEMBER 28
Newbury
12.05 Strong Belle 132; Panic Attack 131; Barrons Land 131; Break My Soul 127
1.12 No Risk With Lou 131; The Famous Five 130; The Good Doctor 129
1.45 Hooper 142; Go To War 136; Getalead 135; Mr Bramley 127
2.20 Henry’s Friend 147; Hold That taught 145; Hymac 144; Surrey Quest 142
3.35 Sea Invasion 148; SInthewaterside 145; Shanagh Bob 143; Moon d’Orange 143Leicester
3.10 Sheldon 135; Golden Whisky 135; Awaythelad 134; High Treason 132Brilliant selections, Rob. You seem to be doing quite well with these.
I have been trying to dive into the ratings and see how you can up with these figures. I started with Hansard, who was running today and you gave a rating of 154.
Today was Hansard’s first race in over a year – who did you choose as the measure horse? Was it Luccia?
To clarify for anyone else reading along, Hansard ran today carrying 12st 1lb and has OR of 141. Last race was 11st 11lbs with OR of 142. The race was lost by 3 1/4 lengths.
Hansard’s last race was won by Luccia 11st 8lbs and OR of 136 at the time of that race.
Luccia’s last OR was 149 with a weight of 11st 4 lbs.
Many thanks,
GaryLuccia was the measure horse for Hansard. To tell the truth I wouldn’t normally rate horses that hadn’t run in over a year, and I had missed thefact that the last run was 23rd Dec 2023. Always a bit dubious when there’s such a long gap between runs so you have to ebar that in mind when analysinig the ratings.
Not doing badly for winners in the top-3 at the moment, though top rated not quite so strong. Often this is the case though where horses sliding down the handicap look well treated though their form doesn’t back it up.
Sunday’s ratings below and the best race looks to be the 12.53 at Kelso where many look to have a chance. Gailimh A Stor is interesting, promising run at Kelso last time after a long break and might go under the radar against horses with recent winning form.
SUNDAY DECEMBER 29
Doncaster
12.27 Idy Wood 146; Hurlerontheditch 138
2.12 Yes Day 140; Onemorefortheroad 131; Finn Lough 131
2.47 Bridge North 164; Super Survivor 146; Pyffo 142Kelso
12.53 Fingal’s Hill 129; Guernesey 128; Gailimh A Stor 127; I Am Max 127
2.03 Caracai Castle 140; Caithness 130; Beat Box 126MONDAY DECEMBER 30
Haydock
1.30 The Flier Begley 142; Ned Tanner 137; Happy And Fine 135; Trac 135
3.10 The Big Breakaway 142; Saint Xavier 140; Gaboriot 135
3.45 For Pleasure 135; Hurricane Ali 133; Mack The Man 133Taunton
2.52 Strking A Pose 128; Tiny Tetley 125; Native Moon 123Wolverhampton
7.00 Coachello 100; Dyrholaey 100; Airman 100; Dutch Kingdom 98TUESDAY DECEMBER 31
Lingfield
1.14 Kylian 108; Sommelier 108; Grace Angel 107; The ThamesBoatman 107Uttoxeter
1.00 Kikijo 131; Haarar 127; Benassi 125WEDNESDAY JANUARY 1 2025
Cheltenham
12.20 Kalif Du Berlais 144; Tedley 144; Vincenzo 138
1.30 Bowtogreatness 159; Our Power 155; Broadway Boy 154
2.05 Colonel Harry 166; Marble Sands 166; Midnight River 165; Springwell Bay 165
2.40 Itchy Feet 153; Twig 147; Catch Him Derry 147; What A Johnny 145Southwell
1.04 Jaramillo 138; Storming Crossgales 124; Stringtoyourbow 121
2.14 Masked Dance 133; Rialannah 132; Molto Bene 131; Uokhun 125
2.49 Anyharminasking 145; Balhamdar 139; Alnilam 138; Afadil 138; Rock House 138Fakenham
2.35 Balboa 140; An Bradan Feasa 136; Royal Way 131; Hecoludbehteone 128Musselburgh
1.45 Benson 145; Liari 141; Sweet Fantasy 140
2.20 Corrigenn Rock 160; Beau Balko 152; Half Shot 150; High Moon 143
3.30 Ginger Mail 132; Cuban Cigar 132; Mack THe Man 130; Ravenscraig Castle 129Newcastle
3.34 Malc 116; Albasheer 112; Secret guest 110; Amazonian Dream 108; We Never Stop 108
4.10 Storm Star 118; Popmaster 114; Blue Prince 111At the end of 2024, a chance to review results since the start of September when I changed the tilt a little on the ratings uploaded to this thread. The blunt instrument of using raw ratings and only rating those placed in the first 4 in one of their last two runs has proved more effective than adjusting the ratings for recent form. The reason is presumably because recent form is well covered by the market.
Results with returns to a 1 point stake:
Top rated – 68/443 (15.3%) returning 401.83 (90.7%)
Shortest priced of the top 3 rated – 103/443 returning 407.46 (92.0%)
Top rated SP 10-1 or less – 61/270 returning 297.26 (110.1%)
Top 3 rated – 193 winners from 443 races (43.6%)The returns for those 10-1 or less are significant and give a profit. Plenty of scope for exploiting those well handicapped horses in the lower price range. By the same token weeding out those well out of form or unsuited by the conditions is likely to improve returns.
And so we continue into 2025, low key stuff at Ayr but the 2.50 is an interesting novice chase.
THURSDAY JANUARY 2
Ayr
2.15 Gold Cup Bailly 143; Whistle Stop Tour 133 (other 3 are well out of form)
2.50 Hashtag Boum 137; President Scottie 135; Choose A Copper 135; Step Above 135A quiet day on the Friday with only one qualifying contest at Musselburgh. Weather forecast forecast to be very chilly but looks as if we’ll be OK if having to wrap up very well.
FRIDAY JANUARY 3
Musselburgh
1.27 Leading Force 136; Autumn Return 134; Cardamon Hill 134Today’s Mussleburgh ended up as a drive over to the course for lunch in Cafe 1816 before returning home! The following could well prove futile in most cases, but here are the ratings for tomorrow’s meetings. I’ll hold off calculating Sunday figures until I have a sign they might take place.
If the Veterans’ Final takes place Fortescue looks as well handicapped as ever, but will presumably find a way of losing as is his wont.
SATURDAY JANUARY 4
Sandown
12.40 Salamanca Bay 134; Dr T J Eckleburg 134; Xcitations 133; Duhallow Tommy 132
1.15 Ballybegg 142; West to THe Bridge 139; Monviel 139; Dibble Decker 138
1.50 Triple Trade 155; Hubrisko 154; Jupiter Du Gite 153; Carbon King 150
3.00 Fortescue 168; Sam Brown 161; Empire Steel 161; Smarty Wild 160
3.35 Hardy Du Seuil 145; Zambezi Fox 145; Jour D’Evasion 140; Aurigny Mill 139Wincanton
1.33 Take Your Time 133; Planned Paradise 132; Livin In Luco 131
2.40 Nocte Volatus 149; Stormy Flight 142; Red Rookie 142
3.15 Nordic Tiger 130; High Game Royal 130; Saunton Surf 128; Latin Verse 127Southwell
5.05 Old Harrovian 101; Glen Buck 99; Barenboim 96; Gaassee 92Warmer temperatures forecast for the osuth tomorrow so looks as if racing will take place.
SUNDAY JANUARY 5
Chepstow
12.15 Phantom Getaway 144; Illico De Cotte 143; Mahland 140Plumpton
12.35 Lord Of Thunder 158; Mark Of Gold 151
2.05 Craven Bay 162; Up For Parol 153; Lemoncello 150; Monmiral 149
2.40 Jerrash 140; East Street 137; Gold Clermont 137MONDAY JANUARY 6
Ludlow
2.50 Party Business 145; Ramo 138; Fever Dream 135Wolverhampton
6.30 Brewing 110; Brasil Power 110; Havanagreattime 108
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