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The art of betting (to me) involves getting value for money on an event to take place, If I wanted to take the realistic odds of something happening then everytime I am wrong I would end up down.
At present I already have Teofilo backed at 25s and if I want to back Authorized I can get 10 or 11/1, if you were to be my bookmaker then you would have to give me better odds than what I can get elsewhere, or what sense would it make to bet with you.:biggrin:
"Almost certain" means, what, ninety per cent (or more) likely to happen? I’ll give you three to one on. Bit of value there.
You’ve a lot to learn.
1/3 Gus?
Doesnt that mean that were agreed it is almost certain?:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
I honestly thought I was going to get the bet of the century there Gus!:(
I was very impressed with Authorized yesterday. Travelled and quickened like a really good horse and I see no reason why anything that finished behind him should reverse the form next year.
Just thinking Gus, if I went £1 on Teofilo at his current price of 4/1 and £1 on authorized then worst case scenario, if one of them wins then im guaranteed to at least get a return of close to 2/1 overall.
Clearly you have a lot to learn about internet based bookmaking!;)
only 2 winter favourites as won the derby in the last ten yrs that should that tells a story in itself its totally a different race then the guineas or the oaks, the winner yesterday is a nice looking horse but so was brain boru, american post who won this race before being touted as derby winners the truth is when it comes to the derby winner as gus stated its usually a horse who has not reallly been heard of as a 2yr and makes 10/20lbs improvement over the winter and though the spring. I dont usually agree with nick mordin but as he states stay away from any horse that runs in a race less than 10 furlongs before the derby sir percy was the 1st horse since 1992 who ran in a race less than 10 furlongs and went on to win the derby
Quote "only 2 winter favourites as won the derby in the last ten yrs"
That makes it a 4/1 shot. About the current price of Teofilo in other words, and he has much stronger claims than most recent winter Derby favs.
I assume you mean won over less than 10 furlongs at 3yo, not 2yo. In which case I am in agreement as I firmly beleive that guineas horses are not derby horses, however, I think Teofilo could be the type to win a weak guineas and a good derby. American post and Brian Boru are nothing like this pair, Brian Boru was a Saddlers Wells with stamina up the ying yang and AP was a bering, look at the track record of montjeu and galileo as sires, and quite frankly if both horses make it to epsom in tact id be a little surprised if it isnt a reverse f/c nevermind something beating both you can nearly set your watch by good Gs and Ms.
i dont believe theres such a think as a weak guineas at all , this time last year who bulwark did you have as your derby horse’s,
Last year after the 2 Montjeu Derby forecasts I started to get into montjeu forecasts in smaller grade races at 1m4f and youd be surprised at how many there was.
Had a little rev f/c on Fen Game, Zalimar my best one yet.
Had Bulwark and Solent if I remember
Had Solent and Crete
Then had Solent and Castle howard this year. They are so reliable in races with pace. I missed the Galileo Tricast in the leger though. These are only the ones I bet on too, theres probably more.
Usually if theres two in a race at 1m4f i’ll almost always have a little dabble in the hope of a good pace.
I love these horses. Trustworthy as hell.
Last year in the run up to the derby I had the sort of horses you have described as the sort to follow, in the absence of anything good in the trials, i would never have backed Sir Percy in a million years. I had Narvik at 50/1, sent to godolphin after a promising 2yo debut and never seen since. <br>Had Fire and Rain 33/1 who had made a similar debut and of whom o’brien singled out specifically on his open day "he’s bred to win a derby and you just need to be patient" which turned out to be a crock, he was injured and has looked rubbish on both subsequent starts. <br>Also had a very little bet on King in waiting, a John Oxx full brother to let the lion roar (who I thought came a tad late in the 2004 derby) unraced at 2 who made a pleasing debut at the start of the season but never done anything after.
I didnt like any of last years big 2yos for the derby and suspected that the winner might be lying in silence. This year however is a totally different kettle of fish. We have two very serious looking 2yos with very little to prove about their abilities.
Quote: from jackane24 on 12:40 pm on Oct. 22, 2006[br]But I would delay the hype until mid-May Bulwark. A lot can happen over the winter. A O’B has got many good looking 2yos. Red Rock Canyon is a good horse, and both A O’B and Heffernan said that he just doesn’t show his quality on the racecourse.
J24 If that wins the Derby i’ll promise to believe everything you say in future, ;)
I selected it on another thread before it was named for a joke punt for 2007.
Laughing so much left a word out :biggrin: <br>
(Edited by Ultimate Nightmare at 11:19 pm on Oct. 22, 2006)
a lot can happened over the winter so many serious 2yrs whom looked the part for the derby the failed badly, i dont really see teofilo as a derby horse neither the rpt winner i just dont think next yr derby winner will have been a group 1 winner at 2 just a very strong feeling i get
Quote: from Bulwark on 9:26 pm on Oct. 22, 2006[br]Just thinking Gus, if I went £1 on Teofilo at his current price of 4/1 and £1 on authorized then worst case scenario, if one of them wins then im guaranteed to at least get a return of close to 2/1 overall.
Clearly you have a lot to learn about internet based bookmaking!;) <br>
Some fell on stony ground.
Just love the way he describes in detail how much Montjeu and Galileo progeny develop from 2 to 3 – but completely rejects the idea that something that is currently an ordinary maiden winner or unraced horse could, like Hurricane Run, Scorpion, Sixties Icon or Nightime, improve past all those that have shown form at 2.
You dismiss the idea that there could be a champion out there that we have not yet seen – yet that is exactly the pattern that your favoured sires have been following.<br>
(Edited by Sal at 10:20 am on Oct. 23, 2006)
It does follow that pattern sal, but the way I look at the 2yo season, its just there to train them for a turn of foot for next year, and wheras I think that its like that montjeu and Galileo will have some improvement, these two hold such a huge advantage for the first part of the season that realistically having one that can bypass these by the first week in june is very unlikely, even nightime had a 2yo group performance (which wasnt unimpressive-she was the highest rated of galileos offspring going into 2006, even higher than any of the colts, galatee would probably be a better example).
Teofilo enters next year having shown a turn of foot that is beyond the capabilities off almost all middle distance horses.
It is very hard to get a horse up to derby level in such a short period, and wheras there are likely to be improvers to you not agree that these two, having shown all the ability they need to be top class next year enter the year with a huge advantage for epsom.
Lets face it, the derby comes far too soon on the 3yo calender. Its not that I am writing off the chances of having another good Galileo or Montjeu (even though they are into their 2nd and 3rd crops respectively now) but I think that the chances of them knocking up one from the 2yos ive seen or from nowhere, and having them up to high 120s/ possibly even130+ standard is very slim, do you not agree sal?
It is worth noting sal that Hurricane Run never won a Group1 until July, a couple of weeks later scorpion followed up with his first, Sixties Icon not till september (and was not anywhere near the class needed on a weak derby day).
I will admit that Hurricane Run was probably sent to the wrong derby (first french derby at 1m2f) but its hard to say how he would have fared against motivator who entered the season with such strong credentials at the time and was a class above anything for the first few months, and we all must realise that if Motivator was poorly campaigned after his derby success.
Generally I find that trainers who save horses until three, seem to have trouble getting a race where they can work on tactical speed, scorpion had much more than Sixties Icon but if i remember he was put through a fair few races and a 1m2f Group1 flop before looking anywhere near group1 class at 1m4f.
It is my opinion that there is no substitue for good 2yo form in the run up to an epsom derby. Usually o’brien will have at least an emphatic looking 2yo maiden winner, and I keep an eye out for these, but he doesnt look to this year, and it all seems to be swing in the direction of the big two.
I have not said its definite, what I have said is that if all goes to plan with these two horses in the run up to the derby (and Teofilo stays), they will be almost certain to win as they will be close to 130 ratings by derby day, can you see anything else being up to that level by the day, you must admit that the odds of that are very slim of that happening.
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